August 14, 1999
Web posted at: 5:16 p.m. EDT

The following is an edited transcript of a chat with David Yepsen, Des Moines Register Senior Political Reporter. Yepsen joined us from the Iowa GOP straw poll on August 13, 1999. CNN interactive provided a typist.

Chat Moderator: Welcome David Yepsen!

David Yepsen: It's good to be here.

Chat Moderator: With the results of the straw poll less than 24 hours away now, what do you expect?

David Yepsen: It is hard to predict because there are no reliable polls of straw poll voters. The amount of campaign activity surrounding this is very intense. It has been like the closing days of a general election campaign in most elections.

Question from flrdli: Mr. Yepsen, who do you think will be the top three vote buyers?

David Yepsen: Bush, Forbes, Dole, Bauer will be near the top. I don't know in what order.

Question from Marty: Is a straw poll nothing more than a distorted way to raise cash?

David Yepsen: It is true that this is a way for the party to raise money. It also tells us something about the shape of the race in Iowa, an important early state. It is not the only test, but it is a test of candidate strength. Candidates who do well in the straw poll tend to be those candidates who have an organization and a message that will then do well in the next year's caucuses.

Question from Danille: Do the candidates really take the straw poll seriously?

David Yepsen: Danielle, oh, yes. If they weren't serious about this, they wouldn't have been spending all this time and money out here in the past few weeks.

Question from Jeffrey: What's gone wrong with Pat Buchanan's campaign?

David Yepsen: Pat Buchanan is dogged, now, by all this talk that he may seek the Reform Party nomination. This makes it difficult for him to get his message through that media clutter.

I think, too, the good economic times that most Americans are enjoying makes it difficult for Pat Buchanan's message of economic nationalism to sell real well. Having said that, I don't dismiss Pat Buchanan at all.

He has always been a strong finisher late in the game. He is getting some support here and around the country from Americans who aren't doing so well. Tomorrow, for example, several hundred teamsters will be going to Ames, and most of them will be voting for him.

Question from Patou: Is the Iowa straw poll really representative of the Nation as a whole?

David Yepsen: No.

:Question from Dean: What has been the top issue in Iowa? Are policies important, or is it more a question of who has the best chance of winning the White House?

David Yepsen: I think issues are very important. I don't think very many people are going to Ames to vote for a candidate just because he gave them a free barbecue sandwich. To suggest that is really an insult to activists and people who really care about this process. They are going to vote, but have some fun around that.

I think a couple of issues are driving this Republican race. The first issue is electability. Many of these Republicans are sick and tired of the Clinton administration, and they want a winner. I think that notion really helps Bush.

Second, these activists on the Republican side care deeply about restoring morality in government. There is a big difference in attitudes between Democrats and Republicans toward what Bill Clinton did. Republicans are very much offended.

A third set of issues are social issues. Many Republican activists will be people who are anti-abortion or pro-gun. Those are the issues that I think a lot of people care about. In Iowa, agricultural economic issues are also important. And, like Republicans everywhere, these activists care a lot about tax cuts.

Question from Sun: Has the media allowed us to hear the positions of the candidates?

David Yepsen: Some of us have tried, but the question implies a good point: those of us in the media have a responsibility to present the candidate's views to the American people in an unfiltered fashion.

All of us in the media can get too caught up in the horse race aspects of the campaign and overlook issues. We at the Register try hard to have a big issue component to our coverage as well as coverage of the horserace.

Question from RNC: What do you think of the view that Liddy Dole is 'too left' on many standard GOP issues? How important do you think the poll is for her?

David Yepsen: She is treating the poll very seriously. First of all, you are correct that some of her views may be a little too centrist for some conservatives.

She's really had good turnouts at her campaign events in Iowa, including a lot of women, particularly younger women, who are interested in being a part of what may be the first female presidency.

The challenge for Dole is to get these new comers to Ames. If she does that, she's going to be a strong finisher, and I think it will give her campaign a real shot in the arm, which it needs right now.

Question from Scott : Orrin Hatch was a relative latecomer to the presidential race, what are his chances tomorrow?

David Yepsen: Orrin Hatch's chances are pretty slim, and he admits that. However, he is, as you know, a member of the Mormon church, and has spent much of his campaign time in Iowa working fellow Morman church members. He estimates that there are about 17,000 church members in Iowa, and he is encouraging them to show up at the polls for him.

Question from pjm: Do you think Forbes has wasted too much money on this?

David Yepsen: Forbes has plenty of money to waste.

Question from gl: Who do you think would win the straw poll if Bush wasn't running?

David Yepsen: Forbes or Dole.

Since it's so long until the actual election, does this poll really mean anything down the road?

David Yepsen: Yes, it does. It's important to donors and party people around the country. Candidates who do not do well will have a harder time raising money. Also, in recent straw polls, the eventual nominee has been among the top three finishers. So, the important thing to watch for as a predicter tomorrow will be who are the top three finishers.

Question from Mark: Why don't more states have this type of process for choosing a president?

David Yepsen: That's a good question. Both political parties in Iowa have found the caucuses to be an excellent party-building tool. It really is a good exercise in grassroots campaigning. I think many states have traditions of primaries, which tend to attract more people than caucuses. That may be why more states have not done it.

But many states have held important straw polls in the past, Florida for one. So, this is not the only place that straw polls are conducted as a party-building tool.

Question from RNC: Do you think Bush is being treated with kid gloves by the media?

David Yepsen: No. I don't think he thinks much of all the questions we are asking him about cocaine use.

Chat Moderator: Some chatters are asking, when will the tough questions be asked about Gov. Bush. Please tell us, what's your opinion of GW Bush?

David Yepsen: I am going to duck part of that question because I am a reporter, and I try not to form too many opinions. Instead, I prefer to try to be an honest handicapper of the race.

Question from Scott: Do you think John McCain has made an error by skipping the straw poll?

David Yepsen: Scott, probably. But, I think, in a sense, no matter what happens tomorrow he will come out ahead. Here's why: tomorrow's races could be very harmful to a number of back of the pack challengers, non-Bush Republicans, if you will.

If Sen. McCain wants to come into Iowa later this fall, he might pick up some of these people. Keep in mind that the first task of nine people behind George W. Bush is to trip him up or slow him down. To the extent that this might happen tomorrow, it could help McCain.

Question from Driftwood_Jack: Could Bush withstand a media assault like Clinton experienced?

David Yepsen: Driftwood, that's a good question. I am not sure. I really don't have a good answer for that.

Question from Scott: Who do you think will emerge as the top vote getter among the social/religious conservatives?

David Yepsen: Probably Gary Bauer.

Question from DesTynNee: Why isn't the media pushing Gov. Bush harder on these questions and issues?

David Yepsen: I think we are, and, as the campaign goes along, he will get pushed even more. Wherever he holds media availabilities or grants interviews, reporters are asking him about issues and qualifications. I don't think that he is getting a free ride from the media, and I think that he thinks he is not getting a free ride out of the media. Remember, too, it is early in the campaign.

:Question from pjm: Do you believe Dan Quayle's remark that he will make it to the caucus regardless of tomorrow?

David Yepsen: You have to take him at his word. Campaigns don't like to quit, but he won't be much of a viable candidate if his fund raising continues as it has, which has been pretty poorly.

:Question from MJSr2000: If Elizabeth Dole does poorly in tomorrow's straw poll, could that signal the demise of her presidental hopes and why?

David Yepsen: No. I don't think that a poor showing by Forbes, Bush, or Dole would finish off their candidacies. Bush and Forbes have enough money to overcome any bump in the road. Dole has sufficient national name recognition that I think she could keep going if tomorrow is not a good day for her. That may not be true of any other candidates in the field, however.

Question from Rory: Is the party making a mistake by trying to push people behind Bush?

David Yepsen: I think that Gov. Bush has an awful lot of support among party rank and file. He may have raised $37 million, but let's remember that most of it came in $1,000 chunks, so that is a lot of people.

He is no slouch as a campaigner. He has a style similar to Clinton's: He likes crowds, and is good on the stump.

:Question from Bobby: Was Al Gore's switch on the abortion issue a mistake? Did he "flip flop"?

David Yepsen: I don't think it was a fllip-flop. I think his press secretary put out some bad information. I don't think it will hurt Gore. Not immediatey. But, look at the race in six to eight weeks and see if some people have not folded their tent.

Chat Moderator: Do you expect any candidates to drop out of the race after the poll results come in?

David Yepsen: Watch the fund raising. Campaigns don't quit but they do run out of gas.

Chat Moderator: Thanks for joining us this evening, Mr. Yepsen.

David Yepsen: I've enjoyed this, thank you. Great questions!