Jim Clancy on the changing Democratic Republic of Congo

Congolese president Joseph Kabila

Jim Clancy is an anchor and correspondent for CNN International. As host of Inside Africa, Clancy regularly covers political, cultural and economic news from the continent.

CNN Moderator:How stable is the Congolese government in the wake of Laurent Kabila's assassination and the ascension of his son to the presidency?

Jim Clancy: The situation has a limited degree of stability because everyone is watching to see what President Joseph Kabila does next. The reality is that Congo remains fundamentally unstable because it is divided into three major camps, including two rebel groups that control 50-60 percent of the country. The hope is that President Kabila will do what his father failed to do: sit down and seriously talk with his regional and internal foes about ending the conflict.

CNN Moderator: What is known about the people behind the assassination of President Laurent Kabila?

Jim Clancy: There are several theories, but it appears the elder Kabila "eliminated" internal rivals at the expense of alienating a young man who served as his bodyguard. The bodyguard took revenge by assassinating Kabila. The Justice Minister says initial findings do not point to Rwanda or Uganda having been involved. Those two countries back the main rebel groups in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

MESSAGE BOARD Share your thoughts on the strife in the Congo    RESOURCES Congo's cascading civil war: A primer Counting the dead in Congo   CNN TV Watch CNN International's Inside Africa every weekend.     ALSO Congo rebels say 11 killed in Hutu ambush Congo's Kabila returns home after diplomatic trip

CNN Moderator: What type of political base does Joseph Kabila have?

Jim Clancy: Joseph Kabila is trying to find that out for himself. Clearly, he inherited his father's small circle of loyalists from Katanga Province. That isn't necessarily a good thing. His father was seen as surrounding himself with a very tight circle of supporters, including his brother-in-law, cousins and others. This was at the expense of other groups, especially the political parties he banned. Joseph Kabila has said he wants a dialogue with those groups, but he has not taken any action to open up the political process. Some fear Joseph Kabila is being manipulated from behind the scenes and that the "tight" inner circle will never allow him to do much with the dialogue because it would almost certainly lead to those individuals losing their privilege and power in the government. Remember that this government wasn't elected by anyone.

Question from chat room: How important is Congo to the rest of the near by countries in the area?

Jim Clancy: Congo is crucial to the region in various ways. First, the spillover from the conflict there is burdening neighbors with refugees. In some cases, those refugees are armed combatants seeking shelter. Second, the resources of Congo are being stolen by various groups to pay for their involvement in the conflict and for personal gain. Rebel groups backed by Rwanda, and particularly Uganda, have reaped huge profits from this by cutting timber, mining gold, diamonds and other resources. Faced with the likelihood he would be overthrown, Laurent Kabila sought the assistance of Zimbabwe, Namibia and Angola. In the case of Zimbabwe, he concocted a joint venture in Cobalt mining. The venture was a failure; Mugabe's economy is on the ropes, and he's paying for a war that has cost Harare an estimated $200 million. As Zimbabwe's economy melts down, it's biggest trading partner, South Africa, has cause for concern. There is a level of military instability as well, with Rwanda facing attacks by militiamen accused of committing genocide in 1994. The real answer is that the entire Great Lakes Region is now affected, from Angola to Zimbabwe, Tanzania, Burundi and many other states. The longer the conflict continues the more likely we are to see the realization of what some call "Africa's First World War."

CNN Moderator: Joseph Kabila has just completed his first overseas visits. What type of impression has he made with leaders on this trip?

Jim Clancy: The purpose of the trip was to shore up his credibility, legitimacy and image. He's young -- just 28 according to some credible accounts. Moreover, rebel groups contend he has absolutely no more claim to be "leader" of the DRC than any of them. What the International Community wanted to hear was that he was committed to peace, and committed to the Lusaka peace accords that were extremely difficult to get signed by all the parties. During his visits, President Kabila repeatedly said he was committed to peace. But during that trip, and after his return home, he has made it clear that he is not committed to Lusaka in its present form. He has flatly said he wants Rwanda and Uganda to pull out their forces from DRC. This is the same as saying he wants them to pull the rug out from under the rebel groups BEFORE he achieves anything in a dialogue with them. The rebels see that as a way to hold on to power and succeed his father as an un-elected ruler with complete control of the politics and economics of the DRC.

Question from chat room: What's happening to the people of the Congo as the government is focused on war? Is there any social structure left?

Jim Clancy: There is a social structure left, but it is badly battered. In rebel held areas, there is deep resentment against the Ugandans and Rwandans. In Kinshasa, the economic outlook is bleak and there is frustration that a political dialogue that has been promised for years has never become reality. After thirty years of Mobutu Sese Seko, Congolese were ready for change and especially ready to share in the country's vast wealth. Education, healthcare and other services have grown worse because of the conflict and government mismanagement. In front line areas, civilians have been the target of rival groups punishing them for perceived support of their rivals.

CNN Moderator: Do you have any final thoughts to share with us?

Jim Clancy: Let's all keep our eyes open and keep the pressure on all sides in this conflict to live up to their responsibilities. Virtually every party to this conflict has violated the Lusaka accords. The only way forward is through dialogue, compromise and power sharing. The "payoffs" and looting of the Congo can and should be punished. The international community does have a role to play to not only push the process forward through the Lusaka peace process, but consider sending peacekeepers in earlier rather than later. But most of all, the regional players in this conflict -- Angola, Namibia, Rwanda, Uganda and Zimbabwe -- those countries have to do whatever it takes to bring this to an end by forcing their proxies to enter into serious, constructive dialogue.

CNN Moderator: Thank you for joining us today.

Jim Clancy: Thanks to all of you for some great questions and I hope to see you this weekend for Inside Africa!

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Congo's Kabila returns home after diplomatic trip
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