Israeli Ambassador Alon Pinkas on Israel’s election for prime minister

(CNN) – Israeli voters must choose between Prime Minister Ehud Barak and Likud party leader Ariel Sharon in elections February 6. Sharon, a former army general who says he will make no further concessions to the Palestinians, has a sizeable lead in the polls. A growing number of Israelis are dissatisfied with Barak’s leadership during four months of violence. Barak and his supporters say Sharon is a warmonger whose policies would only increase violence.

Ambassador Alon Pinkas is the consul general of Israel in New York. Before holding this office, Ambassador Pinkas served as chief of staff to Israel's foreign minister and as an adviser to Ehud Barak.

CNN Moderator: What does the picture of Israel's future look like with Prime Minister Sharon? Prime Minister Barak?

MESSAGE BOARD Mideast peace    VIDEO CNN's Fionnuala Sweeney has more on the Israeli elections (February 5) Play video (QuickTime, Real or Windows Media) CNN's Fionnuala Sweeney reports on the final days of the campaign in Israel (February 3) Play video (QuickTime, Real or Windows Media)    AUDIO Benny Elon, Knesset member, explains what the election means for Jewish settlers 286K/25 sec. AIFF or WAV sound CNN's Jerrold Kessel reports on how Palestinians view the election 905K/84 sec. AIFF or WAV sound Zalman Shovel, Likud Party official, analyses future Israel U.S. relationship 907K/84 sec. AIFF or WAV sound Barak tells CNN's Christiane Amanpour "now is a crucial stage of the peace process" 277K/25 sec. AIFF or WAV sound    RESOURCES Timeline gallery: Israeli opposition leader Ariel Sharon    RESOURCES In-Depth: Israel Election 2001    TIMELINES Recent acts of violence in the Middle East:  •  Bombings  •  Activist deaths    RESOURCES Key issues: U.S., Israeli and Palestinian views    ALSO Palestinians vow to fight Sharon Bush aides cautious on moving U.S. Embassy in Israel Bush officials say it's up to Israeli voters now Israel's Peres still wants role in peace talks Blow for Barak as Rabbis back Sharon

Alon Pinkas: Well, we are going to have to wait and see two things to get an accurate picture of both: One is the result of the election and the second is the composition of the government that is being formed. Only after we get these two answers will we be able to judge if there is continuity in policy or a change in policy.

CNN Moderator: Reports say that voter turnout is expected to be low for tomorrow's election. Why, and aren't Israeli citizens known for active political participation?

Alon Pinkas: First of all, Israel has one of the highest -- if not the highest -- average voter turnout amongst Western democracies; the figure is 79 percent.

There are two things that we may attribute to an expected low turnout. One is that these elections are just for the prime minister and not for parliament as well. That may account for lower turnout.

The second reason will only be explained by post-election analysis and that is voter apathy. A post-election analysis will only be possible after we characterize constituencies in which the voter turnout was relatively low. Once we have that analysis in front of us we will have a better understanding of the question of why people did not vote.

CNN Moderator: To what extent are Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza helping Israelis to elect the next Israeli prime minister?

Alon Pinkas: They have no direct political effect on elections but the fact that the Palestinian leadership in the last year and a half failed to match Israel's willingness and approach to the peace process will surely have an effect on the way people vote. In a way, this is a referendum on the way the peace process was conducted, by the Palestinians and also by us.

CNN Moderator: Would a victory by either candidate have any affect on U.S.-Israeli relations or the U.S. role in future peace talks?

Alon Pinkas: I think it will not have an affect. I think that U.S.-Israeli relations are solid and strong and transcend in their durability both a change in American administration and a change in Israeli administration. I am absolutely confident that relations will remain as close and as deep as they have been for many years.

Question from chat room: Polls indicate Sharon will win. Less than two years ago, Israelis elected a prime minister who is the opposite of Sharon. How can you account for the change in attitude of the Israeli people?

Alon Pinkas: I think that the reason people will vote for someone who seems to be different is a certain disillusionment with the Palestinians. So, to a large extent, a vote for Sharon is also a vote against Arafat and against Palestinian intransigence.

CNN Moderator: Under what circumstances could Prime Minister Barak pull off a win?

Alon Pinkas: I think that voter turnout should be high and that a lot of people who say they will not vote for him will change their minds. I refer you to one of the previous questions: Only after we analyze the various voting patterns can we come up with an explanation for a Barak victory, which -- according to the polls today -- seems unlikely.

Question from chat room: What do you see as the biggest problem facing your country today?

Alon Pinkas: There are several: the future of the peace process and our relations with the Palestinians; our relations with other countries in the region; longer-range threats from Iran and Iraq. And we also have economic and social issues that need to be taken care of and dealt with.

Question from chat room: Do you think that the vote will be completed without violence or protesting?

Alon Pinkas: Yes I do.

Question from chat room: What role will President Bush and Vice President Cheney have in the peace process?

Alon Pinkas: I think that that largely depends first and foremost on what type of process we will have in the upcoming months. I think that the new administration in Washington will be engaged in the Middle East and committed to the peace process, albeit in a different way and with a different emphasis than the Clinton administration.

CNN Moderator: Did the Ultra-Orthodox rabbis' endorsement of Ariel Sharon come as much of a surprise?

Alon Pinkas: No, it did not. They have said for quite some time that they feel more comfortable with Mr. Sharon than they do with Mr. Barak in terms of their agenda and priorities. This endorsement was expected and I don't think that anyone is surprised.

Question from chat room: What about Intifada? People there are talking about it.

Alon Pinkas: I think that the Palestinians resort to violence and use terror as a tool of policy every time one of their demands or many of their demands are not met in full at the negotiating table. I think that it was well within the powers of Arafat and the Palestinian Authority to control and call down this violence three months ago. They failed to do so. They need to realize that no serious peace process or any negotiating process, for that matter, could produce meaningful and lasting results when it is accompanied by continued violence.

CNN Moderator: Are Mr. Barak and Mr. Sharon actively campaigning today? Which constituents are they still trying to influence?

Alon Pinkas: My understanding is that Mr. Sharon is urging his voters to come out and vote tomorrow. His constituents are the people that have already indicated an intent to vote for him. He wants to make sure they actually go out and vote. As for Mr. Barak, he is doing almost the same but he is concentrating on the Arab-Israeli vote, which constitutes over 12 percent of the electorate.

CNN Moderator: Do you have any final thoughts to share with us today?

Alon Pinkas: There is one major thing that I think people need to bring into consideration: not to prejudge any prime minister until he formulates policy and implements it. That needs to be accompanied by a respect for the democratic choice of the Israeli people. Whomever they choose and vote for is the legitimate prime minister of Israel. Any criticism is valid and legitimate only after a government sets forth its policy, not beforehand.

CNN Moderator: Thank you for joining us today.

Alon Pinkas: Thank you for the interest and thank you for your questions. They demonstrate both interest and knowledge. I think that this type of chat is important in both expressing concerns and questions and the attempt on my part to answer them. Obviously a lot of things can still be said.

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