Jerrold Kessel: Israeli Elections

CNN Moderator: What are Barak's chances of winning the election?

Jerrold Kessel: I think, quite frankly, the best observation was made by a public relations specialist in one of the Israeli newspapers today when he said what Barak needs to do is "abolish income tax." He may have been trying to be facetious, but I think that sums up the outgoing Prime Minister's situation. Unless there is a miracle, or he does manage to abolish income tax, he simply can't win this election.

MESSAGE BOARD Mideast Peace    VIDEO Continuing violence is a backdrop to the elections, according to CNN's Jerrold Kessel (January 31) Play video (QuickTime, Real or Windows Media) CNN's Fionnuala Sweeney has more on the young vote in the upcoming Israeli election Play video (QuickTime, Real or Windows Media)    RESOURCES In-Depth: Israel Election 2001    TIMELINES Recent acts of violence in the Middle East:  •  Bombings  •  Activist deaths    RESOURCES Key issues: U.S., Israeli and Palestinian views

Question from chat room: If Sharon is elected, will it not spark increased violence on the part of the Palestinians?

Jerrold Kessel: That's been the warning, not just from many people in the Arab world but from many of Mr. Sharon's critics within Israel, that there will be escalating violence. They denounce him as a warmonger. Irrespective of what judgement there may be about Mr. Sharon's past -- and we simply don't know how he means to handle the challenges now -- there's probably a more well-rooted concern that the situation could become chaotic simply because there will be no mechanisms in place to handle crises with the Palestinians. At present, even in the midst of this ongoing and sometimes ferocious confrontation of the last four and a half months, the Israelis and Palestinians have never really stopped talking to each other.

Mr. Sharon has already said how he would respond to further violence from the Palestinian side. If he does not reverse that position, it could be a recipe for broadening hostilities. But let's not forget Mr. Sharon prides himself on being the kind of leader, whether in military uniform or in politics, who is able to shape the course of events. One way or another he could be sorely tested to prove that again in these circumstances.

CNN Moderator: Some have suggested that Barak step aside in favor of another Labour candidate such as Shimon Peres, but Barak refuses. What are his reasons?

Jerrold Kessel: It's hard to make a judgement on Mr. Barak on this score. People are saying he is either being courageous or fool hardy. Although Barak is staring a landslide defeat in the face, he believes one should never abandon a battle midway through. Because of this, Barak's supporters see a courageous poliltician. Critics say that he is letting his ego get in the way of his stepping aside to let Mr. Peres compete. After all, the latest polls show that Barak trails Sharon by as much as 17 to 22 percent. Peres is actually slightly ahead of Sharon.

The strongest argument against Barak is that if he loses as badly as the polls suggest, it will be interpreted as Israelis saying they're not only rejecting him personally but also his peace process, which may not be the total truth. On the other hand, Mr. Barak could argue that had he stepped aside and Peres lost anyway, then it really would have suggested that Israelis had rejected the peace direction which they have been promoting. Either way, it seems absolutely certain, or as close as anything can be absolute in Israeili politics, that Barak won't be stepping aside before early Friday morning's deadline.

CNN Moderator: While the election looms, violence continues. Will the continued violence in the area affect the election proceedings?

Jerrold Kessel: No, the elections will go ahead as-is, but violence certainly has been contributing factor -- a major factor -- in Mr. Barak's situation. Many Israelis really believe that he should not have been negotiating while the Palestinians were forcing them to fight and while many were dying in the West Bank and Gaza. And Mr. Barak is also paying the price of reflected anger against the Palestinians who are perceived to have let Israel down by choosing to fight rather than to talk peace. There are also those Israelis who are swinging behind Sharon because he's seen as an antidote to their uncertainty and an answer to their anger towards the Palestinians who are widely felt to have hammered Barak's Israel on the battleground and at the negotiating table.

CNN Moderator: Do you have any final thoughts to share with us?

Jerrold Kessel: Although the result seems a foregone conclusion, it is interesting to note that while Barak had always hoped the election would be a referendum on peace, it has become one of who can guarantee greater security. If Israelis seem to be saying "peace now" is impossible, then what they want is "security now" and they believe Sharon will be able to reconstruct what's been called "a balance of fear."

CNN Moderator: Thank you for joining us today.

Jerrold Kessel: Thank you very much for having me.

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