Campaigns and Elections Magazine's Ron Faucheux on the top house races

(CNN) – Ron Faucheux, editor of Campaigns and Elections, a monthly magazine that covers the nuts and bolts of political campaigning, joined the Allpolitics Chat to talk about the top races for seats in the House of Representatives. Faucheux is a former political official, political candidate, campaign consultant and analyst. He received a B.S.F.S. degree from Georgetown University, a law degree from LSU and a Ph.D. in political science from the University of New Orleans, where he founded and directed its nonprofit, nonpartisan Government Leadership Institute. He also publishes a weekly newsletter on upcoming political campaigns and teaches courses in Political Campaign Management and Running for Office at the Graduate School of Political Management at George Washington University and a course on The '98 Campaign at American University.

Chat Moderator: Welcome to the CNN chat room, Ron Faucheux.

Ron Faucheux: Thank you!

Chat Moderator: Pennsylvania's 13th Congressional District has sent four different representatives to the House over the past eight years. Will incumbent Joe Hoeffel (D) break that cycle in this election?

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Ron Faucheux: Well, it's possible that he will. It's a very, very tough race for him. We have him handicapped as being a slight favorite at this point. If people are interested in our handicaps of all the House, Senate and gubernatorial races, we have them online at www.campaignline.com. Click "The Political Oddsmaker."

Question from KazzyTaz: Ron, why all the attention on Oregon? It only has seven electoral votes, unlike California with its 54.

Ron Faucheux: Because it's a very close state. The polls, as well as historic voting patterns, show that Oregon is a close state. In a very close election, seven electoral votes are plenty. If it's close enough, they could be the difference.

Chat Moderator: James Rogan of California's 27th Congressional District has been targeted for defeat by Democrats for his role as a House manager in the Clinton impeachment. Since his district is 44 percent registered Democrats, how close is the race between Rogan and Democrat Adam Schiff?

Ron Faucheux: It appears to be very close. We have Schiff handicapped right now as a slight favorite to beat Rogan. It will be the biggest spending U.S. House race in American history by the time it's over.

Question from KazzyTaz: Ron, Oregonians only are able to vote by mail, so many of them may have already voted. Wouldn't the candidates be better off campaigning elsewhere?

Ron Faucheux: Well, not necessarily. The vote-by-mail procedure complicates election and generally requires additional spending and strategic attention but doesn't necessarily mean "stay away." It might mean more effort, not less.

Chat Moderator: Is the race to fill the seat being vacated by John Kasich still considered very competitive?

Ron Faucheux: Yes, it is. What we're talking about is the seat in the Ohio 12th District. Currently we have Republican Pat Tiberi slightly favored over Democrat Maryellen O'Shaughnessy. But it's a close race.

Question from MicEvHill: How do you think the current controversy over immigration in Congress will affect House races? Are there any House Republicans who could be harmed by the GOP's unwillingness to deal with the Democrats on these issues?

Ron Faucheux: Perhaps Republicans in California will be disadvantaged by that issue, and in some of the close House races in California, Democrat constituency groups are using immigration as an issue.

Chat Moderator: Which races are you watching carefully?

Ron Faucheux: I can give you a list of about 40 to 45 of them! But the ones we have the closest right now, which is some measure of interest, would be California 15 and 36, Florida 8, New Jersey 7, Oklahoma 2, Washington 2, Michigan 8, California 49, Florida 22, Florida 12, New Jersey 12, California 27, Pennsylvania 4, Illinois 10. That would be a representative sample of some of the most interesting House races.

Question from MicEvHill: I have heard much about Nader's impact on Gore in states like Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, Wisconsin, California and Michigan. Will the voters he draws to the polls in those states help or hurt the Democratic Senate and House candidates?

Ron Faucheux: I think, generally speaking, the voters that Nader will draw to the polls will tend to favor Democratic candidates for Congress. Some of the voters Nader draws may not vote in other elections, but those that do are likely to favor Democrats. So, while Nader may be a nightmare for Gore, he may be a dream come true for Democratic candidates in certain districts.

Question from Matt1: How is Brian Bilbray doing in California?

Ron Faucheux: Well, that race remains very close. We have Bilbray as the favorite now, but a very slight favorite, only a 52 percent favorite, which is very, very close. He's an incumbent Republican. A number of other handicappers have that race as a tossup.

Question from Kush: Can you comment on Brent Christensen's chances of defeating Hyde in Illinois' 6th District?

Ron Faucheux: Well, there are certainly a lot of Democrats who hope it's possible. We still have Hyde as a strong favorite to win that race.

Question from Brian1: How is George Nethercutt doing in Spokane?

Ron Faucheux: He appears to be ahead at this point, but I still think it's possible that he could be defeated. If his opponent ends the race with just the right message, tying together Nethercutt's reneging on the term limits promise, with bigger issues involving confidence and trust of officials, I still think it's possible he could be beat, although at this point we have him as a slight favorite.

Question from Nick: Could Regina Seltzer surprise everyone in New York?

Ron Faucheux: Well, I guess any underdog could surprise any favorite in any district in the country! But at this point, I don't think so. I think Felix Grucci, the Republican candidate, is a slight favorite to win.

Chat Moderator: How likely are the Democrats to retake the House?

Ron Faucheux: Right now, we have the Republicans with a 50.6 percent chance to maintain control of the House, which is very, very close. My feeling is that if the election were today, the Republicans would maintain their majority of 219 seats. You need 218 for a majority.

Question from Tprvost: Can you give an explanation of why the presidential polls differ so wildly and whether or not you give the polls any merit?

Ron Faucheux: What I've been doing is figuring daily averages in the presidential polls. Based on daily averages of presidential polls, as of today Bush is ahead by 1.7 percent, which is significant, because yesterday he was ahead by 4.0 percent. That's an average of all the reported national polls for president. But the reason why there's wide variation in the polls is because pollsters use different methods to determine samples, and they screen out, in many cases, voters who they believe will not likely turn out on Election Day, in different ways. This is why I’ve been calculating a running average for the last three weeks, because I think that gives you a better view of where things are. Based on a running average, Bush has a very slight lead of 45.7 percent to Gore's 44.0 percent.

Question from Republihippie: How does Robin Hayes fair against Mike Taylor in the North Carolina Congressional race?

Ron Faucheux: At this point, we have Robin Hayes, who is a Republican incumbent, a slight favorite to retain that seat. That is in the 8th District of North Carolina.

Question from Brian1: Are there many potential Democrat representatives who may not support Gephardt as speaker?

Ron Faucheux: No, there are not many, although Ohio Congressman Jim Traficant has said he would be inclined to reelect Republican Speaker Hastert. And there could be others.

Question from Kush: Historically, what has been the split between incumbent/challenger when undecided voters enter the polling booth?

Ron Faucheux: Usually challengers do much better than incumbents among undecided voters. You can take polls in many elections and of the undecided voters who vote, most usually end up voting for challengers, although some undecided voters don't vote on Election Day.

Question from MicEvHill: More than a million new citizens have been sworn in since the last presidential election. Do you think the large number of newly registered Latino citizens is being underrepresented in the pollsters' "likely voter" estimates, given that they have not had an opportunity to vote in the past? How do you see this affecting the final election results?

Ron Faucheux: Yes, I think it's possible that they're underrepresented in samples, but can't say for sure, since I don't know. That would impact California and Florida more than any other two states.

Question from Garystad: Ron, do you think the presidential coattails will affect the House majority?

Ron Faucheux: At this point, probably not very much, because the two presidential candidates are so close. I don't think either one has significant coattails, and some believe that there are some voters who like having a president of one party and a Congress of the other party.

Question from JFossel: Do you think the daily Congressional tracking polls some companies release are useful or of any value at all?

Ron Faucheux: I don't think they are useful for public consumption, but I think they can be useful for campaign strategists.

Question from MicEvHill: For those watching the election returns on Election Night, what are some of the early races you would point to that could foreshadow the trend that will eventually develop?

Ron Faucheux: Well, I think a good state to watch would be Kentucky. There are two Congressional races in Kentucky, in the 6th District with incumbent Ernie Fletcher, and in the 3rd District with incumbent Ann Northup. Both have tough races, and both are Republicans. If they win both, that's an indication that the Republicans may keep control of the House. If they lose either one, it's an indication that the Democrats are competitive to take control. Pennsylvania is also an early state to watch because Pennsylvania has several close races: the 10th District, 4th District, and 13th District. They'll all be early indicators.

Question from KJ: I am wondering about Ken Toltz here in Colorado v. Tom Tancredo.

Ron Faucheux: We have incumbent Tancredo, who is a Republican, slightly favored to be reelected.

Chat Moderator: Since the census was done this year, Congressional districts will be redrawn. Which party will have the advantage in redistricting for the 2002 elections?

Ron Faucheux: The Democrats will have the advantage in California, but the Republicans will have a slight advantage outside California.

Chat Moderator: Thank you for joining us today, Ron Faucheux.

Ron Faucheux: Thank you all for participating! If you'd like to follow our changing odds for the election, you can go to campaignline.com, and click on "The Political Oddsmaker." Thank you!

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