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Likelihood of runoff big question as Israeli race winds down

Netanyahu is pinning his re-election hopes on forcing Barak into a runoff RELATED VIDEO CNN's Jerrold Kessel reports on the Israeli campaign for prime minister Real 28K 80K Windows Media 28K 80K Take a look at some Israeli political TV commercials Real 28K 80K Windows Media 28K 80K CNN's Richard Blystone reports on campaign commercials in Israel Real 28K 80K Windows Media 28K 80K CNN's Jerrold Kessel reports on the Israeli election. Real 28K 80K Windows Media 28K 80K

Arab candidate withdraws, boosting Labor's Barak

May 15, 1999
Web posted at: 8:54 p.m. EDT (0054 GMT)

In this story: Netanyahu says he can win runoff Mordechai says he'll stay in race Barak nibbles at Likud constituencie RELATED STORIES, SITES

JERUSALEM (CNN) -- As Israel's five-month election campaign heads into its final day Sunday, the burning question is whether Labor leader Ehud Barak will be able to claim outright victory in Monday's ballot. If not, Likud Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will get two more weeks to make one of his patented comebacks.

On Saturday, one of the five candidates in the race for prime minister, Azmi Bishara -- the first Arab ever to seek Israel's top political post -- pulled out. Although he didn't endorse Barak, Israel's Arab voters have traditionally backed Labor, and Bishara's departure was expected to help Barak.

"We are against Netanyahu, but we are also not in Barak's pocket. We don't want to join any coalition with him," said Bishara, who nonetheless told reporters: "Now you can be sure that Netanyahu has lost the race."

A poll released Friday by the Maariv daily put Barak's support at 49.9 percent and Netanyahu's at 35.1 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.

If Barak takes more than 50 percent of the vote Monday, he would claim the prime minister's post. But if he doesn't exceed that threshold, he and Netanyahu would face each other in a June 1 runoff.

In a separate vote Monday, Israelis will also choose members of the Knesset, the national parliament.

Netanyahu says he can win runoff

Netanyahu, who came from behind in the closing days to win the last election three years ago, has attacked the polls as inaccurate. The prime minister has been telling supporters he can still win if the election goes to a runoff between him and Barak.

Even Barak's supporters admit that a runoff could be "problematical." Israel has never had a runoff and no one knows who will turn out to vote and in what numbers.

Bishara's departure increased pressure on two other candidates -- the Center Party's Yitzhak Mordechai and conservative hard-liner Benny Begin-- to withdraw from the race to avoid a second ballot.

While polls showed that support for Bishara, Begin and Mordechai was only in the single digits, Barak was close enough to an outright majority that their departure could push him over the top.

Mordechai says he'll stay in race

Begin said he was still considering what action to take. Mordechai, however, insisted that he would remain in the fray, despite intense pressure from members of his own party to give up.

On Saturday evening, student demonstrators gathered outside Mordechai's house in a Jerusalem suburb, pleading with him to get out of the race.

It is widely believed Mordechai's departure would be a boost to Barak. But analysts split over whether Begin's supporters would gravitate to Netanyahu on ideological grounds or to Barak as a protest against the prime minister, with whom Begin had an acrimonious falling out.

Begin, the son of former Prime Minster Menachem Begin, opposes trading land for peace with the Palestinians and quit the Likud Party over Netanyahu's negotiations with Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat. Barak, too, favors the peace process.

Mordechai was the defense minister in Netanyahu's Cabinet until he was fired by the prime minister. He joined with other disaffected Likud members to form, with much fanfare, the new Center Party. But as the campaign has progressed, his support has crumbled.

Barak nibbles at Likud constituencies

Barak has built up a lead over Netanyahu by nibbling away at two of Likud's traditional constituencies -- Sephardic Jews of Middle Eastern origin and immigrants from the former Soviet Union. Together, they make up about half of the Israeli electorate.

Many immigrant voters were put off by Netanyahu's ties with the religious Shas Party, which currently controls the Interior Ministry that oversees immigration. Shas and a Russian-immigrant party, Israel B'Aliya, have been in a tug-of-war for control of the ministry.

Barak has appealed to Sephardic voters on economic grounds. Many have been hurt by rising unemployment under the Netanyahu government.

A Labor TV commercial honed in on those feelings: "During Netanyahu's rule, 100,000 people have lost their jobs. Why shouldn't he?"

Netanyahu has fought back by portraying himself as a leader strong enough to stand up to Arafat and by portraying Barak as soft on the issues of terrorism and a Palestinian state. Barak, a former general, has responded by noting that he is Israel's most decorated soldier and was at the forefront of battling threats to the country's security.

CNN's Randy Harber, Correspondent Jerrold Kessel, The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.