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Russian rivals set sights on presidency
October 11, 1998Web posted at: 12:28 p.m. EDT (1628 GMT) MOSCOW (Reuters) -- Russia's presidential election is not due until mid-2000 -- but don't try telling that to the likely challengers. Doubts over President Boris Yeltsin's health and his perceived political weakness have prompted presidential hopefuls to start announcing their ambitions and trying to forge campaign alliances and coalitions. The jostling for position has been triggered mainly by the decline in Yeltsin's fortunes during Russia's deep economic crisis and growing calls for his resignation, underlined by nationwide protests last Wednesday. It can also be put down to Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov's announcement nearly two weeks ago that he might be a candidate, increasing pressure on other presidential hopefuls to make a move to avoid being left in the starting blocks. "He (Yeltsin) is old and ill. Things are hard for him. He is suffering because after briefly being the father of the nation, he has now become its enemy," the liberal Sevodnya newspaper said after the protests. But the paper noted that if Yeltsin quit, the constitution stipulates that an election would have to be held three months after he stepped down. "And none of the people who have today declared their intentions is really ready," Sevodnya said.
Yeltsin's reaction to the maneuvering has been silence, broken only to say he has no plans to step down early. His wife Naina says his health is fine and he will not retire before the end of his term. Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov says an early poll would be a recipe for instability. "It would lead to divisions and whip up political passions," he said Saturday. But Yeltsin's rivals say he is the main cause of instability and his resignation could help Russia out of crisis. The list of likely candidates is headed by Luzhkov, Krasnoyarsk region Governor Alexander Lebed and centrist former Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin, a longtime Yeltsin ally who has already announced his candidacy. Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov, liberal economist Grigory Yavlinsky and nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky also could run. Communist parliamentary speaker Gennady Seleznyov said last Thursday he might throw his hat into the ring as well.
All need financial, political and media support, and no one is far enough ahead of the field to be sure of victory. That means all are hoping to forge alliances before their rivals do. Luzhkov's declaration that he would run under certain circumstances prompted an immediate response from the opposition Communists who, fearing they cannot win an election on their own, floated the idea of an alliance with him. But Luzhkov distanced himself from that idea on Saturday. "I am not their ally, adviser or contender. Let them sort it out for themselves," Luzhkov told a news conference. "I am not claiming the leadership of a left-of-center bloc because I am attracted by a centrist philosophy." Luzhkov has been working hard behind the scenes to forge links with various political groups, including some of the Communists' likely coalition partners. He has done so by proxy through former border guards chief Andrei Nikolayev. Nikolayev, now a member of parliament, has made loose cooperation agreements with several groups with a view to creating a centrist force for the parliamentary election due in late 1999 and for the presidential poll in mid-2000. "Nikolayev has been very busy and there is little chance that he can have acted without Luzhkov's approval," political analyst Andrei Piontkovsky said. Nikolayev could one day hope to become prime minister or president himself. But Luzhkov has started luring Yavlinsky, an experienced economist and politician who could immediately be prime minister for a centrist or left-of-center bloc.
Parties to the right of center, such as Chernomyrdin's Our Home is Russia bloc, have acknowledged the need to consolidate their position by uniting. "Plainly speaking, a political coalition is needed now like never before," Chernomyrdin said in a recent interview with the Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper. Yavlinsky is also mentioned by some Our Home members as a possible partner, but he was a fierce critic of Chernomyrdin when he was prime minister. The fact that other potential partners also opposed Chernomyrdin when he was prime minister, and last month blocked his attempt to be reinstalled as premier, has prompted some Our Home members to suggest he should make way for someone else. The coalition talk has also pointed to differences in the Communist camp, where Seleznyov and Zyuganov appear to be at odds over who might be their presidential candidate. One man who has stood aloft is Lebed, who is likely to run on a law-and-order ticket. But Lebed has not stayed out of the fray. He has been on the offensive against Yeltsin, led a protest march in Krasnoyark last Wednesday and warned the president on Saturday he could face a revolt if he ignores the demands of the people. Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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