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Irish peace accord still faces obstacles

Referendum results graphic

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DUBLIN, Ireland (CNN) -- Northern Ireland awoke to a new political future Sunday after voters approved a historic peace deal, but the architect of the negotiations warned that the accord alone won't guarantee peace.

"By itself, this agreement will not create peace and stability. This only provides the means to achieve peace and security," said former U.S. Sen. George Mitchell, who chaired the International Commission on Disarmament in Northern Ireland for two years.

The accord was finalized April 10, and residents of British-ruled Northern Ireland and the independent Irish Republic voted on it Friday. Mitchell did not discount the possibility of more violence that has resulted in thousands of deaths in the past three decades.

"Probably, inevitably" more violence will occur, he said. He also warned that some Irish who get involved in the assembly, that will be created through June elections, might "be part of the process to wreck the process."

Indeed, John Taylor, deputy leader of the Ulster Unionist Party, Northern Ireland's main Protestant party, issued a statement warning members to be careful about the candidates they choose for the new assembly.

Look to the future

The peace agreement is designed to heal the divisions between Catholics and Protestants that have left 3,400 dead, 40,000 injured and property damage worth millions of dollars.

Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern had a simple message for those who still aim to promote violence: "Forget it."

"The people on whose behalf you claim to act have spoken. Your ways are the ways of the past," Ahern said.

Other analysts said the future will not be easy.

"It's clear that there is still significant opposition. There's no question of that," Paul Bew, professor of politics at Queen's University in Belfast, told RTE television's "Prime Time" program.

"The 'No' lobby are down but not out, because they have a second bite at the cherry in the assembly elections," said Duncan Morrow, a politics lecturer at the University of Ulster in Belfast.

Overwhelming support

In Northern Ireland, 71 percent of the voters opted for the agreement on a power-sharing government, a deal also backed by 94 percent of the voters in the Republic of Ireland.

"The will of the people has spoken. They, the people, have said, 'There has to be a better way,'" said David Ermine, a former prisoner and a leader of the pro-British Progressive Unionist Party. "We now have to get our hands dirty and deal with people who perhaps we don't like in order to achieve something better."

Gerry Adams and McGuinness
Gerry Adams, left, and negotiator Martin McGuinness   

Voter turnout in Northern Ireland was 81.1 percent, the highest in the province since the island of Ireland was partitioned in 1921.

The announcement in Belfast, Northern Ireland, that the agreement had been passed brought cheers, singing and applause from the audience awaiting the outcome of the ballot counting at the King's Hall.

Politicians had warned that anything less than a strong endorsement from the north could wreck the chances of the peace agreement working properly.

Analysts and political leaders said they considered Northern Ireland's 71 percent "yes" vote a decisive victory for peace.

What comes next?

The results pave the way for the next steps in the agreement to take place:

  • June 25: Elections held in Northern Ireland for a 108- member legislative assembly, chosen by proportional representation.

  • End of June: Deadline for British and Irish governments to enact legislation allowing for early release of prisoners, many from warring Protestant and Catholic paramilitaries.

    New assembly to meet "as soon as practically possible" after elections. Initially it will shadow the British government's Northern Ireland ministry but will gradually take over powers from it.

    The North/South Ireland Ministerial Council, including first minister and first deputy minister from Northern Ireland and prime minister from Irish Republic to begin meetings "as soon as practically possible" after elections. Council will meet at least twice a year at summit level to discuss areas for cooperation.

    British/Irish Council, including representatives of British and Irish governments, to begin summit meetings at least twice a year; regular sectoral meetings to discuss specific issues.

  • Summer 1999: Deadline for an independent commission to report back with recommendations for future policing arrangements in Northern Ireland.

  • Autumn 1999: Deadline for review of the province's criminal justice system, to be carried out by the British government in consultation with political parties and nongovernmental organizations.

  • May 2000: Deadline for decommissioning of all arms held by paramilitary groups.

  • Summer 2000: Most paramilitary prisoners likely to be released from jail by this date if agreement holds.

Protestant leader calls vote 'convincing'

Northern Ireland's election officials gave no breakdown of the vote, so it was not clear how many of Northern Ireland's pro-British Protestant majority had backed the deal.

The results represented a narrow victory for Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble, head of the largest pro-British Protestant party, who had set a 70 percent "yes" vote as his goal. Anything above that, he said, would indicate that most Protestants were willing to make Northern Ireland's new compromise government work.

"It's a very convincing endorsement to have over 71 percent," he said.

Pre-election surveys had showed Catholics overwhelmingly in favor of the pact, but Protestants evenly divided.

Blair praises results

"This is the result we have worked for and wanted, another giant stride along the path to peace, hope and the future," British Prime Minister Tony Blair said.

The accord would create a government in Northern Ireland aimed at balancing Protestant and Catholic rights and obligations.

"I think people throughout this island have voted for change," said Gerry Adams, leader of Sinn Fein, the political arm of the Irish Republican Army, which supports a united Ireland. "The task now is to manage that change."

 
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