Analysis: Suharto's gone, but questions and problems remain

Suharto resigns

May 21, 1998
Web posted at: 10:25 a.m. EDT (1425 GMT)

(CNN) -- Indonesia has been saved from a true catastrophe with the resignation of President Suharto.

His decision to step aside peacefully after 32 years at the helm of the world's fourth most populous nation has averted a possible bloodbath reminiscent of the one a young Lt. Gen. Suharto rode to power in 1966.

It remains to be seen whether the prescribed arrangement for his resignation, under which his hand-picked successor, Bacharuddin Jusuf Habibie, assumes the presidency and the military guarantees the safety of the Suharto family, will be acceptable to the nation -- and for how long.

President Habibie addresses the nation

Habibie, a German-trained technocrat and long-time crony of Suharto, is almost certain to be a transitional figure. He is greatly disliked by the nation's business establishment, distrusted by the powerful military and the general population, and has no real political base of his own. That makes it highly unlikely he will be able to gain a lasting foothold in the presidential palace.

Suharto's resignation, and Habibie's ascension to power, certainly won't solve all of the country's problems. Indonesia is a country mired in economic crisis and devoid of political institutions capable of guiding it into the 21st century. It also is seething with ethnic and regional tensions -- from Sumatra to Kalimantan, East Timor to Irian Jaya -- which, if unleashed, could easily Balkanize the 13,000-island archipelago.

But that this transition, however fragile, has been accomplished constitutionally and with minimal bloodshed -- for the first time in Indonesia's half-century as an independent nation -- must be seen as a major victory for the rule of law, as well as a big step forward for Indonesia.

With vigorous new leadership, plus a lot of hard work at economic reform and political institution-building, and without the crony capitalism of the Suharto regime, it stands a good chance of pulling through this crisis.

Joe Manguno is a copy editor at CNN International and the former Indonesia correspondent for the Wall St. Journal.

Message board:

• Indonesia unrest

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• Habibie becomes president after Suharto resigns - May 20, 1998
• Speaker gives Suharto until Friday to resign - May 20, 1998
• Indonesian opposition leader tries to call off protest - May 19, 1998
• Suharto to quit, but when? - May 19, 1998
• Suharto pledges reform, new elections - May 19, 1998
• Military backs Suharto's plan to shuffle Cabinet - May 18, 1998

Related sites:

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• Indonesia Internet Information Center - starting point for information about Indonesia
• DKI Jakarta - official Web site of the capital city of the Republic of Indonesia
• Indonesia Times Online - English language daily.
• Indonesia - AsianNet

External sites are not endorsed by CNN Interactive.

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