With falling birth rates, babies are a scarcer sight in Mexico VIDEO CNN's Harris Whitbeck looks at what the decrease in birth rate means for the country Windows Media 28K 80K MESSAGE BOARD: Mexico today

July 28, 1999
Web posted at: 9:31 p.m. EDT (0131 GMT)

By Correspondent Harris Whitbeck

MEXICO CITY (CNN) -- After years of steady increase in the number of babies born, Mexico's birth rate is now dropping.

Although Mexico's population will grow to 130 million over the next 30 years, experts say the population explosion has now stabilized.

For much of the 20th century, the average Mexican woman gave birth to seven children. That number has since decreased to an average of 2.5 children per family, largely due to family planning.

"About 80 percent of the couples we see here agree that family planning is a responsible measure to take," said Dr. Ana Cecilia Montes, who works at a family planning center.

The Mexican government welcomes such news, but worries that the decrease in family sizes could make the elderly more dependent on its services in the years to come.

By 2050, a quarter of Mexico's population will be over 65

By the middle of the next century, one in four Mexicans will be over the age of 65.

The current birth rate decrease does provide a window of opportunity, government officials say.

"If we take advantage now, we will be able to create an infrastructure of necessary services in order to provide for the needs of the elderly," said Rudolfo Tuiran of the National Council on Population.

The government's prescription is more investment in social programs now to prevent problems later. But such a plan depends on the emerging Mexican economy, which recently has shown more instability than long-term growth.

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