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Zairian rebel uprising had roots in Rwanda

Disgust with Mobutu fanned movement

May 17, 1997
Web posted at: 4:30 p.m. EDT (2030 GMT)

Analysis From Correspondent Jim Clancy

(CNN) -- Zairian President Mobutu Sese Seko underestimated the rebel alliance when it began as an unorganized and chaotic movement in October. The miscalculation proved disastrous for the ailing president and ultimately led to his ouster.

But the nature of the crisis dates back further than October, in particular to the 1994 Rwandan civil war and genocide of more than a half-million Tutsis there. With the war's end and Tutsis seizing power, the defeated forces of the Rwandan Hutu army led their entire ethnic Hutu population across the border into Zairian refugee camps.

Once in Zaire, Hutu militants began buying arms, set up a government in exile and staged cross-border raids. Mobutu and his aides believed the new Rwandan leadership would be powerless against Hutu militants in the camps -- a monumentally misguided notion.

Along came Kabila

With initial backing from Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi, a longtime Zairian rebel and Mobutu opponent, Laurent Kabila, began launching a fresh insurrection, targeting the sprawling Hutu camps in eastern Zaire.

Rebels soon scored military successes in the East and began to sweep across Zaire. The alliance even proclaimed in October that its goal was to oust Mobutu -- a claim largely dismissed by the Zairian government and Western officials.

Zaire's officials accused neighboring Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi of fueling the insurrection.

However, Zairian analyst William Zartman said that while the neighboring countries played an important role in backing rebels initially, the movement was an internal uprising.

"This is a local home-grown, grass-roots rebellion against the Mobutu regime," Zartman said.

In town after village after city, government forces surrendered outright or fled without putting up a fight. Residents welcomed the rebels' arrival.

A the rebels advanced, Mobutu appointed new commanders and vowed to launch a counter offensive to crush them. But his hired guns and rhetoric never mounted an attack. And Mobutu, after nearly 32 years of authoritative rule, quietly fled the capital and gave up power before rebels arrived in the capital Kinshasa.

Zartman contends that the force driving the rebel drive was not necessarily Kabila, but the people's disdain with Mobutu.

"People were united by their disgust with the Mobutu regime, and he blindsided himself to the fact that he had alienated his entire population," Zartman said.

 
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