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Will elections lead to peace in Northern Ireland?
May 1, 1997
Web posted at: 12:42 p.m. EDT (1642 GMT)In this story:
- Sinn Fein winners won't take seats
- Labour promises new peace effort
- Conservatives: Don't expect more concessions
- Sinn Fein's competition
From Correspondent Margaret Lowrie
LONDON (CNN) -- If, as expected, the Labour party wins the British election on Thursday, it will inherit responsibility for trying to solve one of the United Kingdom's thorniest and bloodiest problems -- how to handle the Northern Ireland issue.
Since 1969, Catholic militants from the Irish Republican Army have waged an often violent war to end British rule in the province.
In Thursday's balloting, Sinn Fein, the IRA's political unit, hopes to win three parliamentary seats in Northern Ireland. In one west Belfast election district, Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams is the front-runner.
Sinn Fein winners won't take seats
Should they win, it would be only a symbolic victory. Being anti-British, the Sinn Fein candidates would refuse to swear allegiance to the queen and, therefore, would not be allowed to take their parliamentary seats.
Donal Mooney, editor of the Irish Post, believes Sinn Fein candidates have tried to broaden their appeal to include more than their traditional "aggressive" constituency.
Sinn Fein also hopes to attract "the wider nationalist community (by) simultaneously advocating peace," Mooney told CNN.
But that's not the strategy being used on the British mainland, where an IRA campaign of disruption and chaos has preceded the election.
More trouble could be in store until Sinn Fein is included in the so-called peace process.
Labour promises new peace effort
Labour says the IRA's political representatives could take part in peace talks within two months of a new cease-fire.
A government led by Labour's Tony Blair will concentrate on "trying to get inclusive, all-party talks going again," says Marjorie Mowlan, who will be Britain's Northern Ireland Secretary if Labour wins the election.
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Talks are scheduled to resume June 3, and Labour hopes to "get some momentum going on the difficult issues," she told CNN.
But can a new government bring new momentum?
Conservatives: Don't expect more concessions
No, answers the current Northern Ireland secretary, Sir Patrick Mayhew. Sinn Fein officials expecting more concessions from Labour are "stupidly" making a mistake, he insists.
The government of Prime Minister John Major has already acted in good faith, Mayhew says, by taking the army off the streets, opening borders, lifting broadcast and travel bans on Sinn Fein and releasing some convicted terrorists early.
"We made well over 100 separate responses," asserts Mayhew. "What did Sinn Fein do? Nothing at all. They kept on targeting victims for assassination. They kept on developing arsenals."
But Labour's Mowlan, like Sinn Fein, blames the Conservatives in power for the failure of talks to date.
"The British government should accept some responsibility for the slowing down of the process and should acknowledge that," she says.
"I think it's also encumbent upon all the other players to accept some responsibility, too."
Sinn Fein's competition
Key among those other players are the Unionists -- primarily Protestant residents of Northern Ireland who consider themselves British and loyal to the queen.
As the province's biggest political party, the Ulster Unionists (UUP) represent the majority there.
Even so, their parliamentary clout grew disproportionately as the Conservatives became weaker.
The Irish Post's Mooney believes that will change once the Labour party takes control of parliament.
"Once the Ulster Unionists no longer hold the balance of power as they have been .... the British government will feel .... more confident to make an initiative which the (anti-British) Republican movement can live with," he says.
Northern Ireland holds 18 of Britain's 659 parliamentary seats.
Sinn Fein's parliamentary candidates face not just the Unionists but the moderate Social Democratic and Labor Party (SDLP), which commands far more support than Sinn Fein.
While Sinn Fein winners, if any, will refuse to take their seats in parliament, it's likely they will try to keep a high profile by lobbying on the fringes.
There is optimism in some quarters that the results of Thursday's election will mark a new chapter in peace efforts -- that a new government of any stripe will bring fresh goodwill to the process.
Others say that's about all it can bring -- that it will once again be up to Sinn Fein to show credibility, by getting its armed wing to call a cease-fire before any progress can be made.
Reuters contributed to this report.
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