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One year later: Bosnia any closer to lasting peace?
November 20, 1996
Web posted at: 10:00 p.m. EST (0300 GMT)In this story:
- Ethnic cleansing continues
- Tensions simmer
- 'Conditions for peace...do not exist'
- Related stories and sites
From Correspondent Ralph Begleiter
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- It has been one year since the signing of an intricately-negotiated Bosnian peace agreement gave rise to hopes of lasting stability.
It took strong arm-twisting by the United States in a secluded conference center on an air base in Dayton, Ohio, to get the presidents of Bosnia, Serbia and Croatia to sit down together and sign the paper.
Doubts about the Dayton agreements were evident from the start, and some were even expressed at the formal signing ceremony in Paris a few weeks later.
"My government is taking part in this agreement without any enthusiasm, but as someone taking a bitter yet useful potion or medication," Bosnian President Alija Izetbegovic said last December.
Bosnian Serb political and military leaders were also reluctant to sign, and persisted in plans to divide Bosnia along ethnic lines.
One year later, Radovan Karadzic has been forced out of the Serbian presidency, and Ratko Mladic, the popular Serb military leader, has been fired, though he is resisting his ouster.
Ethnic cleansing continues
The Dayton accords committed all sides to cooperate with the Hague War Crimes Tribunal. But one year later, neither of the two top Serb leaders accused of the worst atrocities has seen the inside of a courtroom.
In the field, United Nations investigators are still uncovering Bosnian war atrocities.
"There is some kind of ethnic cleansing going on still," said U.N. human rights investigator Elizabeth Rhen.
"Perhaps more sophisticated: 'You are losing your jobs, you are threatened and you are feeling unsecure. And then finally you are leaving because it's easier for you and your family.' But that's going on still."
Tensions simmer
The Dayton peace agreement sent up to 60,000 troops from nearly three dozen countries into Bosnia.
NATO leaders made the military mission in Bosnia work, separating Serbs, Croats and Muslims according to the complicated maps drawn at Dayton.
The war zones of Sarajevo had almost disappeared. But one year later, skirmishes between Muslims and Serbs at their lines of separation suggest tensions could resurface anytime.
Those tensions were highlighted last week when peacekeepers accused Muslims of provoking violence at a Serb checkpoint. When NATO forces reacted by confiscating some weapons from the Bosnian Muslim army, Muslim civilians attacked the peacekeepers.
"It is where we can expect to have problems in the coming days," NATO Secretary General Javier Solana said Friday. "Those are the hardest parts, the more complicated parts."
The Dayton accords call for arms control and arms reduction. But one year later, Bosnian Serbs are accused of stockpiling heavy weapons they are supposed to be giving up.
'Conditions for peace...do not exist'
Meanwhile, Bosnia's former prosperity has not been rebuilt.
"I think the important part is to focus on what has to be done, which is to get the international community with the Bosnians to work on economic reconstruction," said Madeleine Albright, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations.
National elections held in September produced a government featuring many of the same political characters who favored ethnic division of Bosnia.
Municipal elections couldn't be held at all. Roadblocks prevented Muslim voters from reaching their hometowns.
"The conditions for peace still do not exist in Bosnia ... and putting it in simple terms, the operation was a success, but the patient is still in danger of dying," Defense Secretary William Perry said last week.
The new announcement that an international peacekeeping force may be needed through mid-1998 is recognition that Western leaders were unrealistic in their original one-year time frame for achievement of the Dayton accord goals.
The next 18 months may reveal whether it is not only the schedule, but the Dayton goals themselves that were unrealistic.
Special section:
CNN Interactive's extended coverageRelated stories:
- Clinton: U.S. troops to be in Bosnia until 1998 - November 15, 1996
- Clinton expected to announce new troop plans for Bosnia - November 14, 1996
- U.S. troops begin Bosnia pullout - October 9, 1996
- U.S. troops to provide security as peacekeepers leave Bosnia - October 1, 1996
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