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Hashimoto's coalition-building may be difficult

Hashimoto

Japanese election leaves him short of a majority

In this story:

October 21, 1996
Web posted at: 12:00 p.m. EDT (1600 GMT)

TOKYO (CNN) -- Falling short of a clear election mandate, Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto met his old allies on Monday to try to convince them to join a new governing coalition. Despite the obstacles facing them, it was fair to call candidates from Hashimoto's conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) the comeback kids.


Final results of Japanese elections
Number of seats in lower house of parliament (net change):
Liberal Democrats (LDP) 239 (+28)
New Frontier Party (Shinshinto) 156 (-4)
Democrats (Minshuto) 52 (no change)
Communists 26 (+11)
Social Democrats 15 (-15)
Sakigake 2 (-7)
Minor/Independent parties 10 0
251 seats needed to govern


Victory celebration

The LDP, ousted from power three years ago, regained much of that lost ground in Sunday's balloting for the lower house of parliament. The party captured 239 seats, 12 short of the 251 it needed to govern alone in the 500-seat Lower House, but enough to call the shots in a new coalition government.

Coalition difficulties

Hashimoto met Monday with Social Democratic Party chairman Takako Doi and New Party Sakigake leader Shoichi Ide to urge them to remain in the three-way coalition formed in mid-1994.

The prime minister's aides also negotiated with up to 10 possible defectors from the main opposition party Shinshinto (New Frontier Party) to try to persuade them to switch allegiance to the LDP.

Tagging

Parliamentary sources expect coalition negotiations to be protracted, as potential partners would make policy demands as conditions for joining an LDP alliance, and the process would have to be drawn out to win over defectors from Shinshinto.

Parliament is likely to convene in early November to formally re-appoint Hashimoto as prime minister, by which time the new government lineup is expected to be finalized.

But some analysts warn that the number of interests involved in a new coalition guarantees long-term political uncertainty. "The political situation will remain unstable, and weak government will continue," said political commentator Minoru Morita. "The main point in Japanese politics now is how soon or how late the next elections will be held."

Following through on election promises, such as deregulation and streamlining government, will be the LDP's biggest task and will likely influence the public's perception. Hashimoto is well aware of the challenges and even more aware of the repercussions if he doesn't deliver.

Record low turnout

Voting

Turnout in Sunday's election was just over 59 percent -- a record low. The results mean "we have not regained the full confidence of the people," Hashimoto said. "We have not been given a full score in our three-year effort to reform ourselves and that we must try even harder."

To win over cynics, the LDP will have to project a new and improved image, said political analyst John Neuffer. "Many of the very young (Japanese) lawmakers were educated abroad. Some of them worked on (Capitol Hill) in Washington, so they know how politics is done in Washington, where there is more emphasis on policy, rather than patronage," he told CNN.

Correspondent May Lee andReuters contributed to this report.

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