U.S. officials downplay chances of new Korean war
March 28, 1996
Web posted at: 11:55 p.m. EST (0455 GMT)From Correspondent Ralph Begleiter
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Although there is concern about the danger of war on the Korean peninsula, some United States officials said they see little evidence of an imminent military threat.
In fact, U.S. officials say, North Korea has slowed down its military activities this year and has been unusually quiet this winter.
U.S. officials estimate that North Korea has some 700,000 soldiers within 100 kilometers of the demilitarized zone (DMZ). Most of them were deployed years ago -- the last heavily armed legacy of the Cold War.
But last month, CIA Director John Deutch confirmed America's worst fears -- that North Korea could attack if it chose to do so.
"The North Koreans continue to maintain a massive military force that has the ability to launch an aggressive assault on the south."
-- CIA Director John Deutch at a Senate hearing
But privately, U.S. officials say North Korea's shortage of oil is so acute that an invasion of South Korea would be unsustainable. U.S. officials also point out that North Korea is stuck with old-model Soviet tanks and rocket launchers.
Winter is usually a time of military exercises on both sides of the demilitarized zoned (DMZ), but this year, U.S. spy satellites and other intelligence sources show North Korea is concentrating on "ideological" training, which is less expensive than military exercises.
Indeed, in the past year and a half, North Korea has curtailed its construction and deployment of troops, tanks and artillery.
The military slowdown came at a time when North Korea was negotiating with the United States on a nuclear control agreement.
U.S. officials say North Korea's severe shortages of military and industrial resources may become a political problem for North Korean leader Kim Jong Il.
But officials have no doubts that North Korea's Stalinist political system is still strong enough to ensure that Kim Jong Il is unchallenged -- for now.
As one U.S. official quipped, "That system doesn't exactly reward initiative.
The two Koreas have been technically at war since the 1950-53 Korean conflict.
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