Bad weather delays latest round of Chinese war games
Attempts to intimidate Taiwan backfiring, analyst says
March 18, 1996
Web posted at: 11:45 a.m. EST (1645 GMT)From Correspondents Mike Chinoy and Tom Mintier
TAIPEI, Taiwan (CNN) -- A third set of Chinese military drills in the Taiwan Strait did not get under way Monday because of rough seas, heavy winds and poor visibility, Taiwan's defense ministry said.
The anticipated exercises -- meant to intimidate Taiwan as it prepares for presidential elections March 23 -- were to take place in the northern part of the 90-mile-wide waterway between China and Taiwan. A second set of military drills is continuing southwest of Taiwan; those are to end Wednesday.
U.S. naval forces are monitoring the Chinese maneuvers from vantage points about 200 miles off the eastern coast of Taiwan.
China had said the new exercises would begin Monday and last through March 25, two days after the election. Chinese officials admit that the air, sea and land exercises are meant to influence Taiwanese voters against independence for Taiwan, which China has considered a renegade province since 1949.
But Su Chi, an analyst with Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council, said the war games are having a counter effect.
"There is evidence President Lee (Teng-hui) will be helped (in the election) by the intimidation." Polls show a majority of Taiwan's 14 million voters support Lee.
Lee's opponents, however, have criticized efforts to seek a seat for Taiwan in the United Nations. The government in Taipei lost its U.N. seat in 1971 to Beijing, and has explored ways to win it back.
Taiwan Foreign Minister Frederick Chien told CNN Monday the Taiwanese people want a voice in the world forum. "We cannot forfeit what the public wants."
Some Taiwanese citizens don't want U.S. involvement. About 30 members of the Labor Party, which has no representation in parliament, protested outside the U.S. representative office in Taipei. They said U.S. "gunboat diplomacy," as they called it, could start a war with China. Demonstrators shouted, "Get out ugly Americans" and burned a U.S. flag.
The Chinese exercises are frightening island residents, many of whom are fleeing to the mainland. But Taiwanese government officials dismiss fears that the Chinese are making a serious military threat. They believe Beijing's intentions are political.
Still, Taiwanese troops are on alert. Taiwan's China Times reported that troops in combat gear have taken up positions on the beaches of Wuchiu, one of the islands closest to the planned exercises. The defense ministry did not comment on the report.
If China were to attack, it would be "presumptuous" for Taiwan to expect the United States to defend the island, Chien said Monday. However, he said the Taipei government does expect U.S. military equipment and "moral support and encouragement" to help Taiwan defend itself.
Taiwan's military is being upgraded, and billions of dollars are being spent on new hardware. But the balance of forces is heavily tilted in Beijing's favor. Taiwan has just 376,000 troops compared to China's 2.9 million. The Chinese have nearly 100 long- and medium-range missiles; Taiwan has none.
On the sea the balance is nearly equal. China has 50 ships to Taiwan's 38. But beneath the surface, China has the advantage -- 52 submarines to Taiwan's four.
Also Monday, exiled Chinese pro-democracy activists arrived in Taiwan to observe its first direct presidential elections, the state-run Central News Agency said.
A 30-member delegation, including former student leaders Chai Ling and Li Lu and journalist Liu Binyan, were invited by private organizations. All have been living abroad.
Chai and Li fled China after troops crushed a student-led democracy movement centered in Beijing's Tiananmen Square on June 4, 1989. Liu was expelled from the Communist Party in 1986 for his writings and fled to the United States.
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