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S P E C I A L El Niño Returns

El Niño summit braces for 'climate event of the century'

El Niño batters the California coast in 1982-83 October 14, 1997
Web posted at: 9:42 p.m. EDT (0142 GMT)

In this report:

SANTA MONICA, California (CNN) -- Federal, state and local officials -- Vice President Al Gore among them -- met Tuesday to prepare for an El Niño that scientists say could be "the climate event of the century."

The El Niño weather pattern expected to descend on California and other Western states in January is expected to bring torrential rains and flooding that could lead to destruction in the billions of dollars.

Gore said the conference may be the first step toward preparing for El Niño events "that become more and more commonplace."

"We are here today to try and get in front of this El Niño ... so that we can decrease the chances that homes will be destroyed or lives lost," he told an audience of more than 300 officials.

Gore said that he and President Clinton were told by scientific advisers that the impending El Niño could be the "climate event of the century."

An El Niño occurs when westward-blowing trade winds weaken, allowing warm water normally blown into the western Pacific to drift eastward toward South America. The phenomenon gets its name from the Spanish words for baby Jesus because the warm water usually arrives around Christmas.

Widespread destruction 'plausible'

Although the cause of the phenomenon is unclear, El Niños alter the strength and direction of the jet stream and disrupt weather patterns all over the world.

Gore said forecasters expect that Los Angeles will receive three times its normal winter rainfall, and Sen. Barbara Boxer, a California Democrat, recalled that the last severe El Niño to hit California, in the winter of 1982-83, cost 160 lives and $2 billion in damages. It also tore apart historic piers and ruined miles of beaches.

El Niño

"Now there is an even bigger El Niño lurking in the Pacific," she said. "This one is supposed to be twice as bad as the one in 1982-83."

But Dr. Ants Leetma, director of the federal Climate Prediction Center, said that while the coming El Niño may be comparable to the '82-'83 El Niño, "It will not be bigger than that event."

He did say, however, that widespread destruction of property and loss of life "is a plausible scenario."

Leetma predicted that California would receive up to twice its average rainfall in January, February and March, traditionally the area's wettest months, when mudslides and flooding occur.

El Niño worst in winter

Leetma said the current El Niño will be at its height during those months, and will tail off in the spring and end by summer.

"Our goal, starting with this summit, is to change the way America prevents and prepares for disasters," said James Lee Witt, director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Witt announced the formation of a national campaign, Project Impact, to help communities reduce consequences of disasters through education and planning. Witt said he "hoped and prayed" the El Niño damage would not happen, but told the audience, "We are here to prepare for a potential disaster."

Acknowledging past failures in the federal government's handling of natural disasters, Witt said: "We have got to change the way we prepare for disasters or we are about to be doomed to pay over and over for our lack of preparation."

Reuters contributed to this report.

 
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