October 12, 1999
Web posted at: 9:14 p.m. EDT (0114 GMT)

In this story: Sign of weakness, hint of coup No nuclear changes expected soon Mutual concerns Warning issued for U.S. citizens RELATED STORIES, SITES

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The Clinton administration is keeping a worried watch on Pakistan after a coup Tuesday in which military chief Gen. Pervaiz Musharraf announced on television that he had taken control of the country and "dismissed" the elected government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.

With the fate of Sharif unknown, the administration spelled out how U.S.-Pakistani relations could change dramatically.

"Clearly, we would not be in a position to carry on business as usual with Pakistani authorities consistent with our laws," State Department spokesman James Rubin said.

ALSO Coup brings dramatic end to power struggle with the military U.S. caught unawares by Pakistan coup Text of Musharraf's address India worries over developments in Pakistan Main events in Pakistan's history   WHO'S WHO? Get more details on these key players in our interactive profile.    VIDEO CNN's Jamie McIntyre looks at concern felt by many of Pakistan's neighbors over the country's political instability combined with its recent nuclear tests Real 28K 80K Windows Media 28K 80K CNN's Wolf Blitzer looks at U.S. reaction to the coup in Pakistan Real 28K 80K Windows Media 28K 80K    AUDIO Pakistan Army Chief Gen. Pervaiz Musharraf talks about the turmoil in Pakistan 285K/26 sec. AIFF or WAV sound Pakistan Army Chief Gen. Pervaiz Musharaf explains his reasons for the coup 267K/24 sec. AIFF or WAV sound Former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto blames Prime Minister Sharif for provoking the military coup 216/20 sec. AIFF or WAV sound Journalist Imtiaz Gul describes the takeover 265K/24 sec. AIFF or WAV sound U.S. State Department Spokesman James Rubin reacts to the developments in Pakistan 256K/23 sec. AIFF or WAV sound

But some South Asia watchers believe it was a "business as usual" relationship between Washington and Karachi that could have contributed to Sharif's problems back home.

Sign of weakness, hint of coup

The most glaring example was Sharif's unpopular decision last summer to withdraw Pakistani troops from the Kargil region of Kashmir -- giving in to pressure from President Bill Clinton.

"People saw this as a sign of his own weakness -- that he had to run to the Americans for protection. The United States is not the most popular country in Pakistan," explained Stephen Cohen of the Brookings Institution.

Rubin said that despite a statement last month expressing concern of a possible coup and contacts with senior Pakistani officials in the interim, Washington had no forewarning of Tuesday's events.

He also said if the Pakistani government was overthrown by the military, the United States would push for the restoration of democracy as soon as possible, insisting that Pakistan's constitution "must be respected."

No nuclear changes expected soon

Pakistan, which along with neighboring India is a nuclear power, has been ruled by its military for 25 years of its 52-year history.

Clinton has been hoping to visit India and Pakistan early next year, but officials said this depended on progress by the two countries toward giving international assurances over their newly developed nuclear capabilities.

The Pentagon indicated Tuesday there was no major U.S. concern over control of Pakistan's controversial nuclear arms program because it was normally under army control anyway.

But others aren't so certain about the future.

"The big question about Pakistan is whether its chaotic political system will produce a failed state, where nobody is sure who's in control of its nuclear arsenal," said Gary Milhollin of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control.

Pentagon spokesman Ken Bacon said the United States has had a "long strategic relationship" with Pakistan and that the country was "very helpful during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the late 1970s.

But Bacon said all U.S. military assistance to Pakistan was cut off in 1990 when President Bush was required by law to certify that Pakistan was not working to develop a nuclear device. Bacon said Bush felt he could not make that certification.

Mutual concerns

After Pakistan performed a nuclear test last May, Bacon said there was some talk of restarting the International Military Education Training program to establish a relationship with the Pakistani military. But that never happened.

Gen. Zia Uddin, head of Pakistan's interservices intelligence directorate and Sharif's appointed -- and quickly ousted -- army chief, had visited Washington recently. The Pentagon spokesman said both countries had common concerns to discuss.

"One is counter-narcotics. One is terrorism in Afghanistan, perhaps connected with the Taliban and other forces in Afghanistan," explained Bacon. "So there are reasons for us to have a dialogue with Pakistan."

Musharraf addresses the Pakistani people -- telling them that the situation is 'perfectly calm and under control'

Rubin said Gen. Musharraf was invited to come to Hawaii, but he declined because of scheduling conflicts.

Warning issued for U.S. citizens

U.S. officials are concerned about the fate of Sharif and his family, as well as the fate of Pakistani-Indian relations. Although frozen after the Kargil crisis, Sharif had begun peace talks with Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

The U.S. State Department has warned the 4,200 American citizens believed to currently be in Pakistan to stay close to home.

"We are urging them to exercise caution, number one. And number two, that they limit unnecessary movement outside of their residences," said Rubin.

Correspondent Andrea Koppel and Reuters contributed to this report.

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