Bumper crop of hurricanes in forecast
April 5, 1996
Web posted at: 10:30 p.m. ESTFrom Correspondent John Zarrella
ORLANDO, Florida (CNN) -- Hurricane season is now less than two months away, and meteorologists and emergency managers are at work trying to find out just how harsh the season is going to be. At their annual meteorology conference Friday, renowned hurricane forecaster Bill Gray gave them a sneak preview.
The 1995 hurricane season, the most active in more than 60 years, caused $5 billion in damage. Gray, a professor at Colorado State University, believes the atmospheric conditions are setting up again for another active season. Gray accurately predicted last year's wild ride. (357K QuickTime movie of 1995 Opal Hurricane)
"We're predicting 11 named storms, seven hurricanes, and two major storms," Gray said.
The good news: That's fewer storms than last year.
The bad news: The tropics may be entering an extended active period, which could produce more hurricanes than usual for several seasons.
"Just looking objectively, it looks a bit ominous to me," Gray said.
It's not the kind of news the insurance industry wants to hear. Rates for homeowners insurance in Florida have been rising like a storm surge since Andrew devastated Homestead, Florida, and nearby cities four years ago. The state's insurance commissioner says companies now want astronomical increases based on their own computer models.
"Those computer models, in rates filed with the Department of Insurance, show rates increasing from 100 percent in some counties to 800 percent in Dade County, and I'm not making that number up," said Florida Insurance Commissioner Bill Nelson.
Florida may be in the worst insurance shape, but industry executives say the state is not alone.
"Insurance availability and affordability is as big a problem in Long Island and along the Jersey shore right now as it is in Dade and Broward counties," said Bill Bailey of the Insurance Information Institute.
Experts say that in the future, hurricanes will be the greatest natural disaster threat to the United States. Who will pay for the damage left behind is becoming one of the greatest concerns.
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