October 1, 1995
Web posted at: 10:00 p.m. EDT
GRAND ISLE, Louisiana (CNN) -- A "cautious alert" has been sounded for the 1,400 people who live on Louisiana's only inhabited barrier island as tropical storm Opal, expected to become a hurricane, heads toward them. (196K QuickTime movie)
Opal's northward path is projected to put it near Grand Isle Tuesday evening or Wednesday, but Mike Hopkins of the National Hurricane Forecasting Center in Miami said there's plenty of uncertainty. "Right now, it moves in between Louisiana and the Florida panhandle," Hopkins told CNN. "That's the way things look right now, but that's certainly subject to a lot of change. It could just be sitting out there for a couple days."
Grand Isle Mayor Andy Valence isn't waiting. "We're quite sure that Opal will deliver us a soft kiss on our shoreline sometime Tuesday," Valence said.
As of 3:00 p.m. EDT Sunday, Opal was about 125 miles west of Merida, Mexico with winds around 50 mph, slightly weaker than measured a few hours earlier. On Tuesday, forecasters believe Opal will be a hurricane with winds as high as 75 mph.
Valence and his town council have suggested residents begin leaving the island this weekend, since rising tides threaten to close the only highway connecting it with the mainland.
"We're very vulnerable and sensitive to flooding," Valence told CNN. "With Hurricane Juan, as well as with Andrew, it was devastating as far as the flood damage was concerned." (221K AIFF sound or 221K WAV sound)
It's been more than a century since any Grand Isle citizen has been killed in a hurricane. "With the exception of a tornado that visited us in 1993, there has never been any loss of life here on Grand Isle due to severe weather conditions since October first, 1893," Valence said. "We're trying to keep it that way."
In 1893, 1,500 people were washed to sea and drowned in a storm.
Women, children and the disabled have been asked to leave first, but the mayor is expected to stay and ride out Opal.
Meteorologist Hopkins said Grand Isle is not the only community that should get ready. "Pretty much anybody in the Gulf Coast states has got to pay attention to what's going to happen," Hopkins said.
"Our accuracy at 72-hours isn't all that hot," he noted. "At 24-hours, our average forecast error is 100 nautical miles and it goes up markedly after 24-hours."
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