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EARLY START

Ted Cruz Makes Closing Arguments in Iowa; Iowa Caucuses Last Minute Pitches for Votes; Hillary Clinton's Final Iowa Rally; New Details in California Jail Break; Broncos and Panthers Arrive for Super Bowl 50; Aired 5-5:30a ET

Aired February 1, 2016 - 05:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


[05:00:01] CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN ANCHOR: In just hours, the Iowa caucuses begin. The first contest of the 2016 presidential campaign. Candidates making their last-minute pitches to voters late into the night. But with tight races on both sides of the aisle who will come out on top tonight?

Good morning. And welcome to EARLY START. I'm Christine Romans, I'm here in New York. John has got the -- John has got the front row seat there.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: I am in the front row seat in the Mars Cafe in Des Moines, Iowa. John Berman here. It is Monday, February 1st, 2016. You know what that means? It is caucus day at last. It is finally here. After all the months of campaigning, after all the rallies, after all the town hall, the speeches, even the debates, just hours from now, the first actual voters will cast the first actual votes in the 2016 presidential race.

The Iowa caucuses officially here. Today candidates, they are campaigning everywhere across the state. Engaged in this vast turnout effort. They want to get their voters to the right caucuses at the right time with the right knowledge about how to cast the votes. Everyone says it all comes down to turn out which is about the most over-worn cliche in politics because look, whoever turns up the most voters always wins.

On the Republican side, the main battle is between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. CNN's Jim Acosta following the Trump campaign -- Jim.

JIM ACOSTA, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: John and Christine, Donald Trump sounded confident heading into the Iowa caucuses. He was here in Sioux City, Iowa, where the evangelical leader Jerry Falwell, Jr. where both men accused Trump's chief rival in Iowa, Ted Cruz, of dishonest attacks. The GOP frontrunner predicted a win here in Iowa could make his candidacy unstoppable. Here's what he had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We have to win this election. And we have to win in Iowa. You know, a lot of people say, Donald, just say do well in Iowa. I say, I can't do that. I really want to win. Now maybe it won't work that way, but if we do, we're going to run the table, folks, and we're going to make this country so great you're going to have victories all over the place.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ACOSTA: Trump also handed out a check for $100,000 to a local veterans group as part of that fundraising effort he kicked off as part of skipping last week's GOP debate. Trump has two more rallies later today before he does something he's never done before. That is sit and watch and wait for election results -- John and Christine.

BERMAN: On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. They are in a tight race. Running essentially neck and neck. All the polls show Hillary Clinton with a two or three-point lead here. Both campaigns think these polls are more or less accurate. But that doesn't mean Hillary Clinton will definitely win. Why not? Because of the Bernie Sanders support. So passionate, filled with these young first-time voters who are sending these rallies bursting at the seams. Will these voters show up to caucus?

CNN's Jeff Zeleny attended a Bernie Sanders rally overnight. Let's listen.

JEFF ZELENY, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: John and Christine, with caucus day finally here, Bernie Sanders had a bounce in his step as he made his final stop of the night in Des Moines, speaking to hundreds of screaming supporters. In the same venue where his rival Hillary Clinton was only a few days earlier, the difference in energy and enthusiasm was palpable.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: A poll done by the "Des Moines Register" eight months ago had us 41 points behind. We have come a long way in eight months.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ZELENY: Bernie Sanders is trying to drive young voters to the polls. Young women voters are the key demographic for his campaign. They are trying to get them out. One by one, every supporter I'm told is being called, text messaged, e-mailed. They're being contacted in the final day here making sure they show up in these town meetings across the state of Iowa. There are 1681 precincts.

The Bernie Sanders supporters believe that they are strong in college towns and urban areas. The question is, how much support will they have in rural areas. They hope the power of social media, through SnapChat, through Facebook, through Instagram and others will help drive young voters to the polls.

Senator Sanders announced that he had raised some $20 million in January alone with an average contribution of $27. He believes -- his campaign believes that that is a sign that he has reached beyond Iowa and this campaign could go on regardless of what happens here in Iowa as he heads to New Hampshire and the rest of the states as this campaign finally gets under way -- John and Christine. BERMAN: All right. Jeff Zeleny for us following the Bernie Sanders

campaign.

Here with me at the Mars Cafe in Des Moines, Iowa, "Wall Street Journal" White House correspondent Colleen McCain Nelson. Also with me CNN political reporter Eric Bradner.

Colleen, I want to start with you. I get beat up sometimes on Twitter by the Bernie Sanders fans for not noting how incredible his crowds are. They are big, they are passionate, they are electric. Really it's an event. If you go to one of these rallies, it's really, really impressive. So what are the strength of that, what advantages you have by that, but what are the limitations?

[05:05:00] COLLEEN MCCAIN NELSON, WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT, WALL STREET JOURNAL: Right. Well, you're absolutely right because without fail, the crowds are electric, they're so enthusiastic every single time. Everywhere he goes, he draws a huge crowd. But he goes to places that he has chosen strategically. He appeals to a very specific section of the Democratic Party. Some people outside of the Democratic Party. He is very popular in college towns in Iowa, he's popular in urban areas. He is not popular everywhere in Iowa. So he goes to places where he can draw big crowds.

And so there are certainly some advantages to that, but there are also some question marks related to that because Bernie Sanders is relying on some notably unreliable voting blocks. He is counting on young voters to come out, he's counting on people who have never caucused before, maybe don't really have an attachment to the Democratic Party to come out and vote for him. So they're showing up to the rallies, they're yelling, they're screaming, they're feeling the Bern. The question is whether they come to caucus and stay for the whole evening which is a fascinating but sometimes frustrating process.

BERMAN: And we just don't know. The fact of the matter is we just don't know. They all could -- they all could show up. Bernie Sanders could win by five points here where there will be some giant wave and people would say the passion was real and it turned into votes.

Eric, on the Hillary Clinton side. I went to an event at Cornell College, you know, with Bill Clinton. It's like -- it was a tiny, tiny room and the former president of the United States is talking to this small group of people in this subdued way. Hillary Clinton had a similar event at Grand View University here. Too small. What are they after here?

ERIC BRADNER, CNN POLITICS DIGITAL REPORTER: Yes. So they're after a much smaller group of voters, right? They're after Democrats, committed Democrats, people who have been part of this process for a long time, know how it works, are reliable, definitely will show up.

They are looking at African-American voters, smaller number in Iowa, but certainly still here. It can make a difference in a close election. They're definitely courting a lot of minorities here. Hillary Clinton is focused on urban suburban areas. She spent a lot of time in counties that she lost in 2008. Bernie Sanders meanwhile has been doing all these events in rural

areas in addition to college towns. Sort of knowing that if he can get 1,000 people to show up in the middle of nowhere, that could be better for him in terms of delegate count in an area where he's really weak and going back to Ames or Iowa City and getting another huge crowd.

So Hillary Clinton is really trying to turn out this core group of Democrats, reliable people that showed up in 2004 when turnout was about half of what it ended up being in 2008. And if Bernie Sanders fails at expanding the electorate dramatically --

BERMAN: Right.

BRADNER: Then she is in position to win.

BERMAN: And the Clinton campaign desperately, you know, praying that there is not some wave here of new voters. Crossing their fingers that it doesn't happen tonight.

Again, no one that I talked to sees a wave right now. There could be a greater turnout than in '04 but they don't think greater than in '08.

Let's talk about the Republicans. We heard from Ted Cruz a little while ago, Colleen, he was saying, you know, no one stood up and fought against Obamacare like I have. That's Obamacare. That's talking about Donald Trump, right? And then he says no one stood up and fought against amnesty like I have. He is talking about Marco Rubio right there. He is fighting both sides right now.

NELSON: Absolutely. And he is trying to frame himself as the most conservative Republican in the race. And he is saying don't take a chance on these other guys. You don't know exactly what you're going to get. You've seen me in action. You've seen that I will fight to the death. And so for better or for worse sometimes. But he is trying to make the argument that he is the most conservative candidate among them.

But you've seen his lead slip away in the last few weeks. He has certainly suffered under attacks from Donald Trump. That has hurt him. And he just -- has kind of lost some traction here in the last few weeks.

BERMAN: And Eric, the Trump campaign conceding nothing. Especially among the evangelical voters. With Jerry Falwell, Jr. yesterday, with Sarah Palin in Cedar Rapids in just a few hours.

BRADNER: Yes, absolutely. So evangelical voters are hugely important here in Iowa. And Ted Cruz has been reaching out, saying, look, go with one of your own. But Donald Trump is saying, look, I have the strength to defend you. He is making a real effort to reach out to them. He's built an organization here. There are 44 counties in western Iowa that he spent time in, has devoted resources to.

And if he can convince them that perhaps he is not one of them, but he can defend them against this sort of changing of the tide of the United States, then he could win. All he has to do is keep it close. Not get blown out by Ted Cruz in those areas. And he's going to have a good night.

BERMAN: All right. Just over what? 14 hours now until the voters actually show up?

Eric Bradner and Colleen McCain Nelson, great to have you here with us.

You know, Christine Romans, we didn't even talk about Marco Rubio.

ROMANS: Yes.

BERMAN: He's got an interesting strategy also because in the last few years since you moved away from this great state, there are all these suburbs now, too, that is a relatively new phenomena in Iowa. And it's a different kind of voter that he's trying to reach here, too.

ROMANS: And he's trying to separate himself from the governors as they call it. You know, he wants to be -- if there's going to be the establishment vote, he doesn't want it to be the governors. He wants Iowans to think it's him.

[05:10100] BERMAN: He's got to -- you know, it's really interesting. It's a great point. Marco Rubio is fighting with Ted Cruz here in Iowa. Tomorrow in New Hampshire, he's got a totally different fight and he's going to have a totally different focus. Rubio will be focused on Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and John Kasich. It is Rubio against the governors as of tomorrow.

ROMANS: As of tomorrow. But as of today, it is Iowa. We're watching the forecast, too, because you may get a little snow there tonight, John Berman.

All right, thanks for that, John.

Other news we're following today, these three dangerous inmates who escaped from a California jail cell, they are now back behind bars. And the details on their capture are really interesting. We've got that next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[05:15:03] ROMANS: The California jail worker accused of helping three violent inmates escape will make her first court appearance today. She is being charged with an accessory to a felony.

The three fugitives, they are now back behind bars in Orange County. They were on the run for more than week. One turned himself in on Friday. The last two were arrested after a tip from someone who saw their stolen van in the parking lot of a Whole Foods in San Francisco.

We get more this morning from CNN's Dan Simon.

DAN SIMON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: John and Christine, the one thing you always hear police is that if you see something, you should say something. Well, that certainly came into play here in the famed Haight-Ashbury neighborhood in San Francisco. Someone who was in the area recognized the two fugitives and flagged down police.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Get on the ground. Get on the ground. I knew right then that that was more than a homeless person.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: A citizen saw someone, saw something suspicious, notified an officer. And that notification ultimately led to the apprehension of two armed and dangerous suspects.

SHERIFF SANDRA HUTCHENS, ORANGE COUNTY: I can say this morning that the entire state can breathe a sigh of relief because we have the other two dangerous individuals back in custody where they should be.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SIMON: Authorities had offered a $200,000 reward for information that led to the fugitives' capture. The sheriff in Orange County says that the witness here in San Francisco deserves at least part of that reward. It seems like the fair thing to do -- John and Christine.

ROMANS: All right, Dan Simon. Thanks for that, Dan.

Two Virginia Tech students are being held without bail this morning in connection with the kidnapping and murder of a 13-year-old girl. Nicole Lovell disappeared last week. Her body was found Saturday in North Carolina, near the Virginia border. 18-year-old David Eisenhauer is charged with her murder. Now police are not commenting on how this girl died or a possible motive. But they say Eisenhauer and Nicole were acquainted before her disappearance. A second Virginia Tech student, Natalie Kippers, is charged with helping dispose of the body.

Later today investigators plan to release more than 2,000 pages of evidence from last spring's deadly Amtrak derailment in Philadelphia. Eight commuters were killed, more than 200 others hurt. The evidence is expected to include data from the train's black box. It could explain why the engineer was traveling at 106 miles an hour as he entered a sharp curb north of the Philadelphia station. The speed limit for that curve was 50 miles an hour.

Time for an EARLY START on your money. Welcome to the first day of February. Thank goodness. Stocks slipping around the world. Asian stock markets ended mixed after a weak manufacturing report out of China. After a big rally on Friday, here is where things stand in 2016. The Dow down 5.5 percent. The Nasdaq down 7.8 percent. The S&P 500 down 5 percent.

It's all a bad omen, folks, for the rest of the year. It's something called the January barometer. The basic idea is an old Wall Street saying as goes January, so goes the year. Since 1950, this prediction has been right 87 percent of the time, meaning if there are losses in January, there are losses for the year. If there are gains in January, there are gains for the year. It's been wrong just eight times. Most of those years it was a major market shock like a war or a recession. Bottom line, hopefully will not be a fearful February

The Carolina Panthers, the Denver Broncos, arriving in California for Super Bowl 50. So what's the deal with those pants Cam Newton was wearing? Is Andy Scholes wearing those pants this morning? You can't tell. You always see him from the waist up. We got that after the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[05:22:51] ROMANS: All right. Break out your chili recipe. Super Bowl 50 is less than a week away. And the excitement leading up to the big game is building.

Andy Scholes has more on this morning's "Bleacher Report." Hey, Andy.

ANDY SCHOLES, CNN SPORTS: And good morning, Christine. Yes. Finally Super Bowl week. Both teams arriving in the bay area yesterday. And the story of the day, not football, it was Cam Newton's pants. Check out these bad boys. These are gold, black and white zebra print Versace skinny jeans that Cam was rocking yesterday. And guess what? The $850 jeans already sold out online. You can't even get it anymore.

The Broncos, they had no fancy fashion moves for their trip in. Media day is today. For the first time, it's going to take place in the evening.

All right. A surprising move, Megatron is hanging up the cleats. According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Calvin Johnson is walking away from the game at the age of 31. Johnson reportedly told Lions head coach Jim Caldwell and a select few that 2015 would be his last season. And if he doesn't officially retire, he will walk away as the Lions' all- time leader in catches, receiving yards and receiving touchdown.

All right. There was one football game this weekend. In a pro bowl in Hawaii, the Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson threw three touchdown passes in the first half. An offensive MVP honors. Wilson's Seattle teammate, Michael Bennett, was the defensive MVP after recording and tackling was definitely optional in this as the Team Irvin beat Team Rice 49-27.

All right. And finally John Scott's controversial appearance in the NHL All-Star Game turned into a fairy tale ending. Scott, he was sent down to the minor league after being traded a couple of weeks ago, but a fan write-in campaign made him a captain for the all-star game. And then after scoring two goals, the fan voted him the MVP of the game. His teammates carried him on their shoulders before he was presented with the winning team's $1 million check. He also gets a minivan for winning MVP which is definitely going to come in handy for him because he's got two little daughters, Christine, and a wife who is expecting twins any day now.

ROMANS: My gosh.

SCHOLES: Such a cool story. MVP at the all-star game, Christine, but now he's going back to the minor leagues.

ROMANS: My gosh. And he needs four car seats. You've got to love a guy.

[05:25:02] SCHOLES: Four. Four.

ROMANS: He needs four car seats in one minivan.

SCHOLES: God bless him. Yes.

ROMANS: All right. Andy Scholes, thanks for that, Andy.

SCHOLES: Have a good one.

ROMANS: The first day of voting in the 2016 presidential race is here. In just hours, the Iowa caucuses begin. We will take you there. John Berman there at the Mars Cafe with everything you need to know. That's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ROMANS: In just hours, the first contest in the 2016 presidential race begins. Candidates in Iowa making the last-minute cases to voters before they caucus. Who will come out on top? Our special live coverage begins right now.

Welcome back to EARLY START. I'm Christine Romans in New York.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: I'm John Berman at the Mars Cafe in Des Moines, Iowa. 30 minutes past the hour. And it is all about Iowa because it is finally here after all the months of campaigning, after all the rallies, all the town halls, all the speeches, even all the debates. Voters get to cast actual votes for president of the United States at the Iowa caucuses tonight. Today the candidates, they will be everywhere.