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CNN NEWSROOM

Three Militant Groups Making Power Grabs in Crucial Parts of the Middle East; Crisis in Ukraine Inching Closer to Full-Scale War with Russia; Pope Francis Calls for an End of Persecution of Christians by ISIS; The Search for MH370 Set to Resume Next Month; NASCAR Racer Tony Stewart Returns to the Track in Atlanta

Aired August 31, 2014 - 17:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN ANCHOR: You are in the CNN NEWSROOM. I'm Brianna Keilar.

Right now, we are tracking three militant groups making power grabs in crucial parts of the Middle East. In Libya, Syria, Iraq and even the Islamist border, Islamists are taking territory and hostages, threatening and killing locals, and upsetting the very fragile balance of power.

Amateur video from Libya shows what appear to be militia members on U.S. embassy grounds. Yes, here, even diving off the roof into the pool. U.S. diplomats evacuated this embassy last month. We have no comment yet from the state department.

Meantime, al-Qaeda-linked group made a bold move on Israel's doorstep. The al-Nusra front captured dozens of U.N. peacekeepers in the Golan Heights this week. The U.N. says other peacekeepers came under heavy machine gunfire yesterday and brutal ISIS militants continue their push across huge SWAT (ph) of Iraq and Syria. The UK raising its terror threat level to severe in response to ISIS.

Let's take a closer look at what's going on now. With me here to talk about this, former CIA operative Bob Baer, independent foreign correspondent and "Daily Beast" contributor Jamie Dettmer and Shadi Hamid, a fellow at Brookings Institution center for Middle East policy and author of the book "temptations of power Islamists and illiberal democracy in a new Middle East."

Bob, you first. Talk about some of -- we have different groups, al Nusra front associated with al-Qaeda, is, you are seeing different groups causing different troubles. What's the common denominator here because we do know there's also some infighting.

ROBERT BAER, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: Well, common denominator's pretty clear now, they're a better fighter than the secular groups. Free Syrian army, for instance, they're holding more ground, taking new ground. They're more determined. They're more committed. As these countries become more chaotic and messy and you have refugees, you see Islam becomes a default. It happened the same way with Christianity, other religion. People turned to worship and organized groups based on religion. And so, I think as the Middle East becomes more messy, we'll see these groups rise all over. And how far it's going to go, I can't predict it.

KEILAR: But Shadi, you look at ISIS and you say that it's different. It's a different kind of extremist group in a category of its own, why is that?

SHADI HAMID, FELLOW, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION FOR MIDDLE EAST POLICY CENTER: So ISIS doesn't just fight. They're not the kind of old style terrorists of the early to mid-2000s like Al-Qaeda when it was targeting civilians and blowing things up. It was destroying but it didn't have a vision for building.

What's different about ISIS is that they're interested in governance. So they control large swaths of territory and they're actually running local governments dispensing justice through Sharia courts. Electricity and water, they are providing social services, the list goes on. So, in many ways, they're better at governing than the other rebel groups. They actually are very well-organized and they have a comprehensive strategy that they're implementing right now. That's what makes them such a scary enemy is that they go beyond terrorism. And I think they're setting a new precedent throughout the Middle East where extremist groups are looking to ISIS and saying, holding territory and running government isn't something we used to do. But now ISIS has shown the way and we want to follow.

KEILAR: When you look at that, Jamie, do you see the risk being that is could have a longer-term hold in the region?

JAMIE DETTMER, CONTRIBUTOR, THE DAILY BEAST: I agree, there is a difference between ISIS and al-Qaeda. And actually, the root of the dispute is this business of trying to create a Muslim state, which al- Qaeda doesn't agree with. I compared it to Stalin being ISIS, Baghdad and Trotsky being al-Qaeda in a way. But ISIS is not only concentrating on creating a Muslim state which they want to widen beyond, by the way, in Syria and Iraq but to also Lebanon.

I see them as a much greater danger than al-Qaeda, partly because they have greater global connections than al-Qaeda did in its second year of existence. They've also got the bulk of the 12,000 or so estimated foreign fighters from 81 countries, 3,000 from western countries, who are fighting in Syria and Iraq, have gone to ISIS.

So they have a reach, line, I don't think al-Qaeda had, at the same time in its development. And I think Shadi is right, that as well as that, we're seeing more and more jihadist groups swearing allegiance to ISIS, breaking with al-Qaeda, or if they're not doing that, they're sitting on the fence waiting to see what happens in the competition to lead the jihad movement between ISIS and al-Qaeda and that may put ISIS to start doing some spectacular terrorism if they can in western countries to further their aim to be leaders of the jihad movement.

KEILAR: Does it matter, Shadi, that you have al-Qaeda which is disowned ISIS after it tried to lay claim to the al-Nusra front? Does it matter that there's that infighting? Does that work to the advantage of the interest of U.S. and its allies?

HAMID: This is actually what's fascinating, ISIS is so vicious and brutal al-Qaeda central disavowed them. And now other extremist groups like Jabhat al-Nusra look almost moderate by comparison because ISIS has set the bar for savagery so high. But I think the broader point here is that there is intra-extremist competition and there are many who are concerned that ISIS is going too far, they're too ambitious, trying to do too much too quickly. And I think that's what people are waiting to see, will ISIS be able to sustain its progress and its success, or will it fall under the weight of its own ambition? And in some ways, al-Qaeda is more modest in that respect, as others have said, al-Qaeda would dream about the Islamic state but weren't actually serious about doing it on the ground.

KEILAR: Because they perhaps thought it was unachievable. And that really gets to the point, Bob, how does the U.S., how do American allied, how do countries in the region combat ISIS?

BAER: Well, I think go back to Shadi's point, he is absolutely right. I've been trying to get this across to a long time, it's good governance on the part of ISIS. I know it's hard to acknowledge but in Mosul they've taken control of the city. They running it very well. The looting has stopped in comparison with Maliki, prime minister's army that was there, it's night and day. And the Sunnis, who are even the fairly secular ones tell me, they're happy with ISIS.

So what we have to do in a country like Iraq is, frankly, it's either partition or you're going to have to rewrite the constitution so Sunnis are accounted for. You need to draw a wedge between somebody like ISIS and their vengeance and the rest of it and the moderate Sunnis. But right now the Sunnis are looking at ISIS as almost sort of the gang that's protecting them. And until they don't need them anymore. We have to get to that point. We have to convince all Sunnis this is not the way to go and it's going to take some real doing.

KEILAR: Yes. They have filled a void when you saw the military sort of separated on sectarian lines.

Jamie, when you look -- there are countries in the region, neighbors of Iraq and Syria, who have clearly a very immediate stake on this. Why do you think some aren't stepping up to the plate, like Turkey, like Saudi Arabia? What can they do and what should they be doing?

DETTMER: Well, Saudi Arabia is beginning to step up to the plate in terms of rhetoric. We have head king Abdullah recently laying into ISIS, warning Saudis they shouldn't be supporting ISIS in any way. You know, in the end, this is a very powerful group, Jordan and Lebanon, Lebanon's in real trouble. There's already been an influx of jihadists into Lebanon. They didn't have the strength to take them on.

John Kerry was right, I think this weekend to talk about a global coalition. This is going to be taken down by a global coalition, a regional powers and international powers look at different way of taking them on, and that's not just bombing raids. That's trying to strike them in their heartland of northeastern Syria, looking at ways of undermining their logistical and financial networks. And to be frank, Turkey will be cajoled into doing more. They had hat

goal wide open. ISIS people operate in southern Turkey, and using it as a base to go into Syria. The Turks have to be persuaded, and they have been playing a game. They've got to be on side against on a defensive against the jihadists.

KEILAR: And Shadi, I know you said in a way, this is what we've been talking about that may fascinate people that al-Qaeda sort of pales in comparison to ISIS. Al-Qaeda still a concern, but it's quiet lately. We've heard of this manual that was put out. But where does al-Qaeda fit into the new terror landscape?

HAMID: So, al-Qaeda has been eclipsed in many ways. They're still a relevant actor and al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria, the Nusra front, active in gaining territory in some parts of Syria. So al-Qaeda and its affiliates will be with us for the foreseeable future. And they may gain ground if ISIS begins to lose its ability to hold territory.

But I think that ISIS is presenting a different kind of model that's going to be more of an inspiration in the coming years and quite frankly, decades. Whenever you have a governance and power vacuum, anywhere in the Middle East or broader Muslim world extremist groups are going to think to themselves, maybe we can establish a small little Islamic state in this piece of territory because the central government doesn't have a presence. So that's going to be in the minds of people going forward. And you already see copycats in places like Nigeria with Boko Haram, for example.

KEILAR: Yes. ISIS perhaps writing the manual on that in a way.

Shadi, Jamie, Bob, thanks to all of you. Really appreciate you being with us.

HAMID: Thank you.

KEILAR: So what, if anything, can the President and other world leaders do to quell the violence among militant groups? We'll discuss that next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KEILAR: The march of various Islamist groups is potion a challenge to U.S. policymakers and the President. Mr. Obama is pledging to protect American interests. But critics, not all Republican, say his caution amounts to weakness. And they say his inaction empowering America's enemies.

Let's talk about this with our commentators, Ben Ferguson and Marc Lamont Hill.

And Ben, I know you are critical of President Obama.

BEN FERGUSON, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Sure.

KEILAR: You feel like he needs to be more forceful, he needs to commit more when it comes to military action to deal with the problem. But my question is, he was elected on a get out of Iraq, get out of Afghanistan sort of wave.

FERGUSON: Sure. But you can't have that as foreign policy when ISIS was not talked about when he ran for President. I mean, when you run for that job, you can't be President based on ideas and theories when the reality is scaring you on the face. The reality is, here is the most well-funded terrorist organization we've seen. They have money that al-Qaeda never dreamed of having and they are a threat to our interests and others around the world.

KEILAR: What do you do?

FERGUSON: Well first, these guys are bad guys, and you have to declare they're not JV and admit they are a threat to the United States of America. The second thing, I'd say, come up with a strategy to deal with them. Because he said last week, we don't have a strategy on how we're going to deal with ISIS and that is what empowers your enemy because they do have a strategy. They have a strategy of taking over cities. They have a strategy of taking over their banks, taking their money, killing, selling some of the women off and children, and beheading people. So they know their strategy. We don't even know what our strategy is. That's the problem with the President today.

KEILAR: And Marc, I want to ask you sort of the same question here. What do you see the President's challenges being when you look at what Americans want and do not want? They don't want boots on the ground. That really seems to be the backstop here.

MARC LAMONT HILL, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Yes. I mean, no one wants to boots on the ground. And to be clear, the President has acknowledged that ISIS is a threat. The President has acknowledges that ISIS is a threat to U.S. interests. I don't think there's anyone in the world who disputes that ISIS a legitimate threat.

The question is what do you do as a practical matter? And the challenge is, one, by attacking ISIS through the air, you're able to limit them and contain them but you don't destroy them. But if U.S. troops end up on the ground where you also may end up with this cutting off one head and three more come and three more emerge and we've seen that before, we've seen it through the occupation of Iraq in 2003.

The other problem here is as we strike them in Syria, we actually, whether we want to or not become allies to basher al-Assad and that's something that we don't want to do. Just a year ago, we were talking about strike him. Also, when you strike in the south in Iraq you're an unwilling ally to Iran which piled on here. And lastly, what you do, you create a kind of narrative in the region among Sunnis that Sunnis are being oppressed by Shia and by Christians because now suddenly you have a U.S.-Shia alliance assistance which foments more terrorism.

So my solution is, let me say me solution, Ben. My solution is to continue to fund Kurds in the north, to continue to empower Iraqis in the south and help them rebuild their military and to also arm rebels in Syria and lastly, try to get the source of the private money which often coming from the Saudis in Qatar.

FERGUSON: This is core difference between foreign policy that you're talking about what I'm talking about and that this. You don't want to directly get involved. You want to use everyone else. And unfortunately the United States of America has been the only power in recent history that has proven we were able to go in and to take on terrorist likes this and not be sending money or things to other individuals and expect them to do it. A lot of the times they're not capable of doing. Look at Iraq now and look at ISIS, look how they beat them down.

I also say this, the idea of I don't want to go in there because for every person we kill, three new terrorists jump up. You can't look at the world and fighting terror that way because that's what's got us in 9/11 when we say we don't want to get involve anywhere in the world, that we want to limit our actions. And therefore these terrorists will be nice to us.

These guys are not going to stop fighting. They're not going to stop attacking Americans. They are going to start taking over parts of the world. You can't go in based on fear or there might be more terrorists because we've try that strategy. Obama won it, it's been a failure.

KEILAR: Let's talk about something that we heard from the past, the administration saying you worry about what you can control. And that certainly would be President Obama's leadership on this.

Marc, I want to ask you about this. A year ago we were in a sort of similar place, the President was considering air strikes on Syria after Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons his own people. He said there was a red line, Syria crossed. And then as it turned out there weren't any type of military ramifications board. In the end there was this off-ramp of getting rid of the chemical weapons which certainly is far from complete at this point. But has -- do the President's critics have a point, his failure to act forcefully been an invitation to other of America's enemies, Marc?

HILL: Well, to be clear, Syria is the failure of a military response led to a diplomatic response which led to a drawdown which is exactly what we wanted to see. But to your point, yes, the critics absolutely have a legit claim against President Obama.

The President drew several red lines in Syria that went on un- regarded. The President, like many western observers completely misjudged ISIS. They say they are calling them JV initially, underestimating how money they have, how many resources they have.

ISIS has probably has $2 billion between taking over Mosul and (INAUDIBLE) in Syria, et cetera, and private Saudi money. So we have under estimated and misjudged ISIS. We probably drew too many lines in the sand in Syria. And we probably haven't managed Ukraine or Russia very well. But that doesn't mean that at this moment we should turn the table and become more militaristic.

FERGUSON: This is an issue -- HILL: We need a diplomatic --.

FERGUSON: Marc, I think it's issue of credibility. There's not a lot of credibility. The president of the United states of America, when you it comes to these individuals, there's not a lot of credibility. When you say there is a red line and chemical weapons are used, a total of what we think six times and we still don't respond, and now we don't have a strategy with ISIS, that emboldens and empowers those terrorist to go out and continue to commit atrocities because we don't actually have a way to deal with this.

KEILAR: Gentlemen, I'm going to let it rest right there. And we will pick this up a little later.

Coming up, should the U.S. begin arming Ukrainians as they inch closer to all-out war with Russia? The Senate foreign relations chairman says yes.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KEILAR: The crisis in Ukraine inching closer to full-scale war with Russia. Ukraine's President says the situation is getting worse by the day, especially after thousands of Russian troops moved into the eastern part of the country. But Moscow, it is clearly digging in its heels.

This week, Putin made a point of reminding everyone that Russia is a nuclear nation. And today he called for talks that included the issue of statehood in eastern Ukraine. On CNN's "STATE OF THE UNION," Senate foreign relations chair Robert Menendez proposed a stronger U.S. role.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: So Senator, if I'm hearing you correctly, you say the circumstances have changed, Russia's now at war in Ukraine, and the U.S. has to -- the Obama administration has to change its approach to arming the Ukrainian army?

SEN. ROBERT MENENDEZ (D), CHAIRMAN, FOREIGN RELATIONS COMMITTEE: I think the European Union, NATO, as well as the United States has to consider this is dramatically different. And we have to give the Ukrainians the fighting chance to defend themselves. I'm not suggesting U.S. troops or NATO troops here, but I'm suggesting the Ukrainians have the where with all to fight for themselves.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KEILAR: Now, NATO is meeting in Wales to try to decide how to respond to the crisis.

Let's bring in now CNN's Reza Sayah. He is live in Kiev. And Reza, this meeting that we're going to see, NATO nations discussing what to do. What does Ukraine want to see come out of the meetings here? What's really a realistic for a result? REZA SAYAH, CNN CORRESPONDENT (via phone): I think they need help.

They've asked for military technical assistance. Can you hear me, Brianna?

KEILAR: Yes, Reza, sorry. Go ahead.

SAYAH: Yes, Kiev needs help. They're looking for military technical assistance, intelligence, all indications are momentum is shifting in favor of the pro-Russian rebels. They've gained serious momentum the past week. If Ukrainian troops are in serious trouble. The rebels have a lot of territory. Their next target --

KEILAR: All right, unfortunately we're having a hard time hearing what Reza is saying. We'll try to re-establish our connection and get this fixed.

But I want to move on and talk about this. Security at Vatican tightened after an alleged ISIS plot to kill Pope Francis. If the group is threatening the Pope, who else will be in their crosshairs? We will discuss next.

But first, here's Randi Kaye with today's "American Journey."

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

RANDI KAYE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): In 2002, when Matt Forkas, he was just nine, he was diagnosed with cancer, acute lymphatic leukemia. He was too ill to go to school.

LEN FORKAS, FOUNDER, HOPECAM: 9-year-old kids need their friends. It was lonely. It was depressing.

KAYE: So Matt's father, Len Forkas, came up with an idea to combat his son's loneliness. He reconnected his son to his classroom using web cameras. Remember, this is 2002. Long before Skype.

MATT FORKAS, HOPECAM'S FIRST CONNECTED CHILD: It Flipped on and it flipped on, like an internal soul flicker.

KAYE: Sharing his ups and downs with classmates made treatment easier. The hope, Matt felt was the inspiration for HopeCam, the charity his dad started a year after Matt's diagnosis. It costs about $1200 to connect each child and they pay for everything. HopeCams already connected over 400 children with cancer to their classrooms in 26 states, including Ava Buhr.

In 2011, when she was just 2 1/2, Ava was diagnosed with lieu leukemia. She needed chemotherapy and (INAUDIBLE). But HopeCam helped her stay in touch with her friends at preschool.

AVA BUHR, HOPECAM CONNECTING CHILD: We listen and learn. We dance and sing. HopeCam is my favorite. I can see my classmates and my teachers.

KAYE: Today, Ava is in remission and starting kindergarten in the fall. L. FORKAS: No one thinks about the mental health of the child and

that's really what HopeCam does it fills that empty void.

KAYE: Randi Kaye, CNN, Vienna, Virginia.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KEILAR: The rise of ISIS in Syria and Iraq has been accompanied by frightening report of shooting, beheading and even crucifixes of ISIS enemies. And the group's rapid military advances are raising a question that once seemed unthinkable -- could ISIS operatives reach beyond the Middle East to strike targets in Europe or even America?

I want to bring in former CIA operative Bob Baer and CNN's senior Vatican analyst John Allen.

Bob, you know, when most Americans first heard of ISIS a few months ago, the word was that they weren't interested in striking targets outside of the Middle East. Were we misled here?

BAER: I think we're misled. What we've seen is them trying to establish territory which they've done in Syria and Iraq and they're going to probably try to move out beyond that into Lebanon. And that's their first goal. As I talked to somebody who deals with ISIS on a regular basis said they'd like to go to Saudi Arabia, Medina, Mecca. They have a lot of supporters around the world and they're very adopt at technology, making bombs and certainly capable of hitting outside the Middle East. The question is, do they intend to do it? And as this first explained to me, they're psychopaths so it's within their can.

KEILAR: John, we heard Pope Francis weigh in on this. He called for an end to the persecution of Christians by ISIS. He's voiced support for U.S. air strikes. What can you tell us then that there are reports that there's an ISIS threat against him?

JOHN ALLEN, CNN'S SENIOR VATICAN ANALYST: Well, Brianna, the original report was in the Italian press six days ago, suggesting that is might want to strike against Pope Francis at the Vatican. Yesterday, there was another report in the Italian media voicing concern about a day trip the Pope is planning to make in Albanian on September 21st, where there are substantial population of Muslims, some of whom have expressed support for ISIS. And so there's also an alarm about a potential strike against the Pope on that day when he's in (INAUDIBLE).

In both of these cases the Vatican publicly played down concern. They have confirmed that September 21st day trip to Albania is going ahead. But Brianna, I can also tell you on background that Vatican security personnel have told me, that right now, they are in conversation with their opposite numbers in the Italian security services and also with the security experts in the United States, trying to ascertain what the realistic threat level here is. Now, we should say, neither of these reports, that is the first report

of about a potential strike at Vatican, the second of that the day trip to Albania, neither of them indicated there is any hard intelligence suggesting that such a plot is actually afoot. It was more that this is something that ISIS might like to do.

KEILAR: Do you think we'll see his security change, though? That would be very visible as he goes out in crowds and meets people from the Pope mobile.

ALLEN: Well, I mean, look Brianna, I'm sure you've clued into the fact that this is a tough Pope from the point of view of his security team. He is a legendary spontaneous free-wheeling guy who does not like to be put inside a bubble. So it remains to be seen on the ground what's actually going to happen.

Now, I will say, watching him in action, in recent months, he has become a little bit better about letting his security people get in front of him before he plunges into these crowds. I'm sure that he doesn't want to take a needless risk. I know that his security people are going to be cautioning him about the importance of not putting himself kind of heedlessly at risk. But that's always going to chafe up against a the fact that this is simply the Pope does not like to be separated against the folks and we are going to have to see, once on the ground, how it works.

KEILAR: I wonder, Bob, is it really -- is it realistic that an ISIS operative would target, for instance, the Pope or someone of tremendous stature like this, or is the concern someone who may be inspired by ISIS?

BAER: Well, that's always the problem is somebody, a lone wolf going out, getting on the internet, finding out to make homemade explosives and if he got lucky he could hurt some people.

An organized plot would be difficult to detect because ISIS is extraordinarily capable of keeping off, you know, networks that national security agency can pick up and other intelligence agencies. They're better than al-Qaeda. They know to stay off telephones. So they could slip through either one. But I think the real problem is that ISIS has established a record of massacring Christians, as well as other groups. So, I think that's really the problem.

And so unlike al-Qaeda, who never targeted the Pope in a serious way that I know of, ISIS is more likely to do it.

KEILAR: That you take their threat more seriously. Great insight from both of you. Bob Baer, John Allen, thank you.

And the search zone for MH370, it is changing again yet again. Could crews be closer to locating wreckage in and also the reason for the crash, we have that next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KEILAR: Well, it's been almost six months since Malaysia flight 370 vanished from radar on a routine flight to Beijing. Nothing of the plane or 239 people aboard has been found. And now Australian officials think they've been looking in the wrong place again.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KEILAR (voice-over): The search for missing flight 370 is arguably the most puzzling in history. But each new piece of the puzzle gives authorities and family members of victims a glimmer of hope.

In a news conference Thursday, Australian deputy prime minister Warren Truss said a satellite phone call to MH370 may shed new light on the plane's possible location.

WARREN TRUSS, AUSTRALIAN DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER: Some work has been done endeavoring to map the position of the aircraft when a filed satellite telephone conversation was attempted between Malaysian airlines on the ground and the aircraft and that has suggested to us that the aircraft may have turned south earlier than we had previously expected. But the search area remains the same.

KEILAR: The search for MH370 is set to resume next month. Australian hired a Dutch engineering firm, Fugro, for the task.

TRUSS: I remain cautiously optimistic we'll locate the missing aircraft in the priority search area. And this search will obviously be a challenging one.

KEILAR: Fugro has begun underwater mapping and will begin operations next month. The new search is expected to cover 60,000 square kilometers and take up to a year to complete. Using two vessels equipped with side scan sonar, multi-beam echo sounders and video cameras investigators will scour the sea floor in a new search area which is about 7,000 meters deep in some place.

Plight MH370 vanished March 8th with 239 people aboard on its way from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. If the plane is located, Fugro's goal to positively identify and map the wreckage. The estimated cost of the new operation, up to $48 million, but the closure that finding the ill fated plane would bring to victims' families is priceless.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KEILAR: Former inspector general with the department of transportation Mary Schiavo will weigh in, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KEILAR: Three ships are set next month to resume searching the South Indian Ocean for Malaysian airlines flight 370. Which disappeared on March 8th on its way to Beijing.

CNN aviation analyst Mary Schiavo is joining us from Charleston. Mary, thanks for being with us. And just tell us a little bit about the new information that has unveiled by Australia. How significant is the new satellite data? MARY SCHIAVO, CNN AVIATION ANALYST: Well, it is very significant

because, remember, they had such a sketchy amount of data to go on and really nothing more than Inmarsat data. So now, with the refined data, and they say Fugro will find the data, and with the information about the cell phone call -- that's the second one -- that does put into question that mysterious loop around Indonesia. Is you recall they said the plane turned from its position and then headed back across Malaysia, but then made a mysterious hook around Indonesia. If it turned south -- that was not on radar -- if it turns south before then, then that -- that indication or that thought is now most likely gone. That will put it further south, if it's in the ocean, further south in the Indian Ocean. They're still going to search on the arc but it's going to be closer to the Antarctica area.

KEILAR: And some thought that turn that it made around the fact that it went on radar, some people read into that perhaps that was an intentional action to avoid radar. So there was a wonder, whether it was on purpose on something that could have been done by a pilot.

I wonder, when you look at this water, we're talking very deep water. Is it possible that the plane may be in water so deep that it can't even be recovered at all?

SCHIAVO: Well, if they can find it they can recover. In fact, the U.S. has a couple of ships, they're very good at recovering. They're built to recover submarines. Can be recovered it if they find it. I think the biggest challenge now based on what they've seen so far on the ocean mapping effort that has going on, it's very mountainous. There are deep drops. It goes from, you know, a mile or two deep and it drops to four or five miles. So it's very much like the grand canyon.

And curiously, the search area is about the size of the grand canyon except three times wider. So you can imagine searching the grand canyon but filled with water. That's their job and it is tough. But if they find it, they can bring it up.

KEILAR: It is tremendous. I mean, jus what a challenge it would be if the plane is there.

If the plane is found in this refine search area, what would tell us? Where do scientist and all of this involve here go from there in terms of figuring out what happened? Why the plane ended up in this place?

SCHIAVO: Well, if it indeed fly that wrong and it was on and they suspect non-responsive crew in autopilot, then the cockpit voice recorder won't give as much information. It will just have the last portion of the flight where there is no conversation. There will be sound on it particularly the final sounds of the engines winding down and dying, but it is the flight data recorders that will provide the wealth of information. There are thousand different things that it records, thousands of different pieces of data and it will tell -- you can tell from the flight data recorder if human hands were turning it and flying it, if it was all on autopilot, if there was a mechanical failure, a catastrophic loss of oxygen, an electrical fire, crack in the fuselage, anything like that will be reported. So if they get it, they will get the answers they need off of the

flight data recorder. I'm fairly certain. And it's very important, of course, for the families, but also important Boeing and very important for the governments, too, because right now the governments, particularly the Malaysian government and how badly it handled the initial investigation, people are blaming them for the loss of the plane because they didn't respond when the plane didn't report in to air traffic control. So it's very important for the Malaysian government, too.

KEILAR: They need to find out what happened and how it happened.

Mary Schiavo, thanks very much. Great insight. Really appreciate it.

SCHIAVO: Thank you.

KEILAR: Now, NASCAR great Tony Stewart, he is set to return to racing today after hitting and killing another driver earlier this month. But is his comeback too soon? We will discuss, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KEILAR: In just a couple of hours, NASCAR racer Tony Stewart returns to the track in Atlanta. This is his first race since he hit and killed another driver just three weeks ago. Stewart saying the tragedy will affect his life forever.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TONY STEWART, DRIVER: This has been one of the toughest tragedies I have ever had to deal with, both professionally and personally. This is something that will definitely affect my life forever. This is a sadness and a pain that I hope no one ever has to experience in their life.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KEILAR: CNN's sports Andy Scholes is at the Atlanta Motor speedway.

And Andy, the investigation into Kevin Ward's death, it's still ongoing. So, what went into Stewart's decision here to get back behind the wheel?

ANDY SCHOLES, CNN SPORTS REPORTER: Well Brianna, on Friday, Tony Stewart says he took three weeks off out of respect for Kevin Ward, Jr., and his family and grieve in his own way. But NASCAR said on Friday, he gone through all the steps in order to return to the track and get back to racing. And you know Stewart, he doesn't have a wife, doesn't have any kids, so, Stewart has racing is his family. He is not only the race car driver, he is the owner of his team. He got about 270 employees. So getting back to this environment, getting back to the track, he says, will help him get through this difficult process.

KEILAR: And how are the other drivers responding? SCHOLES: Well you know, getting a lot of tears from the fans, other

drivers we talked to said it is great to see Tony back on the track. Here is what they had to same

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It is good to have Tony back. Obviously, you know, to be able to communicate with him and talk to him about racing and just see him start that first step getting back to normal, as his friend is exciting to me.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I am glad to see the fans are happy I the most important thing and Tony and other stuff, he is a strong guy. He will figure it out.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SCHOLES: And Stewart starts 12th here tonight. Brianna, in order to make NASCAR's version of the playoffs, he will either have to win this race or next week's race, which is the regular season finally. So all eyes will be on Tony Stewart tonight.

KEILAR: Sure will be. Andy Scholes, thank you so much in Atlanta for us.

And in the season finale of "the Hunt," John Walsh revisits the cold case of an abducted boy, it hits very close to home. He says the pain this family feels mirror what is he and his wife went through when their own son, Adam, disappeared.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This guy wearing a mask came out and could see his handgun.

This guy told him to get off their bikes, lay down in a ditch or else he would shoot. He asked one by one what their age was. After that he had Trevor and Aaron, one by one, run off and into the nearby woods. Not to look back or else he would shoot. As Aaron was taking off, he saw the man grab Jacob's arm.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: When he caught up to Trevor and they felt safe enough to turn around and look back, they were gone. They were just gone.

The police asked the boys, are you sure you weren't playing with a gun and Jacob just got hurt and you were afraid to tell us what really happened, which is a legitimate question, but they were absolutely clear, no, there was this man with a gun.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: So, we start to search the area, the immediate area of the abduction, and start to fan out from there. Everybody thought that within a few hours, we would get it taken care of.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: When it comes to missing children, time is the enemy. Seconds count. Hours count. If that child is going to be killed, it's going to happen within the first few hours.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We never went to bed that night. Yes we were up all night. It was just crazy.

JOHN WALSH, CNN HOST, THE HUNT: There are so many parallels in the Wetterling case to our case of Adam. And I will never forget that night when darkness fell and we started the search for Adam. I will never forget that realization and that loneliness. I know exactly was the Wetterlings are going through.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KEILAR: Don't miss "THE HUNT" tonight at 9:00 p.m. eastern here on CNN.

I'm Brianna Keilar. "41 ON 41" begins right now.