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CNN LIVE AT DAYBREAK

California Recall: Poll Position

Aired August 11, 2003 - 06:34   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: There are a whopping 193 names on the California ballot. It's hard to keep all of the candidates straight, but it's pretty clear voters are excited about one name -- Schwarzenegger.
Live to Princeton, New Jersey, and Gallup Poll editor-in-chief, Frank Newport. He's got new numbers for us this morning.

So, I mean, Arnold Schwarzenegger is in the lead, right?

FRANK NEWPORT, GALLUP POLL EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Indeed. No question about it. Arnold Schwarzenegger is in the lead. Several polls have shown that. We just finished interviewing, Carol, yesterday.

In addition to that, Californians are actually quite fascinated by this whole process, just like the rest of the nation. I thought this was interesting to share with you -- 71 percent of registered California voters say they are extremely or very interested in this whole recall business; just 18 percent moderately. Look at the very small number here, not at all interested.

And in terms of that core question that will appear first on the ballot, Carol: Do you dump Gray Davis or not? Right now, we're seeing 64 percent of registered voters say they would. Only 29 percent want to keep him. So, if that's operative, then, of course, it goes to that huge list of candidates...

(CROSSTALK)

COSTELLO: Yes, well, let's talk about that huge list of candidates. What about support for some of the other well-known candidates who will be on that October 7 ballot?

NEWPORT: Well, Arnold Schwarzenegger -- and the way we ask this, by the way, is quite interesting. For each one that we read -- and we read about 13 names, Carol -- we said, is there a very good or a good chance you would vote for this person? We didn't make them choose among 195 in a phone interview. Sure enough, Arnold comes in No. 1. These are probable voters, the people we think at this point most likely to vote -- 48 percent.

Look at the numbers that come after that. This is Cruz Bustamente, who is the Democrat lieutenant governor, he is second. But the next two, Tom McClintock and Bill Simon, a Republican, they come in next. And then another Democrat, Loretta Sanchez, a congresswoman, comes in below that. I'm not even showing you the other numbers, but Arietta Huffington, the well-known gadfly, comes in just about tied with Larry Flynt, the publisher of "Hustler." So, she is not doing very well so far.

COSTELLO: I don't think she would appreciate you referring to her as "the well-known gadfly."

NEWPORT: Well, she's a critic of polling, so she is not necessarily (UNINTELLIGIBLE) the No. 1 person in the world -- Carol.

COSTELLO: Ah, so there's some inside politics at play. Hey, are Californians really taking Schwarzenegger's candidacy seriously?

NEWPORT: Indeed. We asked them that question. We said, is this a joke? Are you taking him seriously? Several different questions like that. The one I want to show you is the joke versus seriously. That big slash of the pie, that's 73 percent of Californian registered voters who tell us they take Arnold Schwarzenegger seriously as a candidate. In fact, the majority, Carol, tell us they think that he can run the governor -- excuse me -- government better than a professional politician.

COSTELLO: Gotcha. Well, doesn't the media's emphasis on Schwarzenegger make him an unfair shoe-in? I know you've done numbers on that question.

NEWPORT: Well, you know, I don't know. We didn't ask a specific question about -- quote -- "an unfair shoe-in," but every candidate has something. George W. Bush had his father's notoriety when he ran for president. I mean, every candidate brings whatever they can to the race. Schwarzenegger is making do with what he has, which is this tremendous name I.D., which in a list of 100 and something candidates, I think, Carol, is an extremely important asset at this point.

COSTELLO: Understand. Frank Newport, thank you for those interesting numbers this morning. We always appreciate it.

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