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CNN LIVE AT DAYBREAK

'International News Desk'

Aired March 3, 2003 - 06:52   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: Let's talk more about Arab leaders and their meeting and their voiced plea for Saddam Hussein to go into exile.
I'm over here at the international desk to check in with David Clinch -- OK, so the Arab leaders had a meeting and some of them voiced a plea that Saddam Hussein step down.

DAVID CLINCH, CNN INTERNATIONAL EDITOR: Right. There has, we've been hearing about this for weeks, months, perhaps, an idea from the Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia, UAE and other countries, that to avert war they would suggest to Saddam Hussein that he leave Iraq and go into exile, probably presumably in one of those Gulf countries.

COSTELLO: And this is unusual because usually Arab nations don't come right out and say this out loud.

CLINCH: Right. This is a very, very difficult issue for them. But war in Iraq is an even more difficult issue for them, the loss in oil revenue, the loss in stability in the region. The key point is here, and I've been trying to get a grasp on this, as I think everybody has, is this a realistic suggestion? Obviously Saddam Hussein does not want to go into exile. The Gulf countries don't really want him. They don't want him to go into exile and they don't...

COSTELLO: That's right. If he steps down, they won't let him into their countries.

CLINCH: But there's one thing -- there's one thing they want less and that is war. If the threat of war is real and imminent, this becomes a realistic prospect. And I think that -- and we were talking about this earlier -- the United States maintaining the threat of war regardless of what Turkey votes, regardless of what happens anywhere, at the U.N. or elsewhere. If the threat of war is maintained, this is a realistic prospect.

Saddam Hussein may want guarantees of safety. He may want billions of dollars. He may want lots of things. The key point is if the threat of war is real and imminent, is it a realistic prospect because the Gulf countries, and perhaps people within Saddam's leadership, think that it is the only way to avert war. So...

COSTELLO: OK, so why did this group of Arab nations table the proposal and they're going to talk about it again in a later summit?

CLINCH: Well, because unfortunately in Arab politics, the last thing they ever want to do -- and I'm not being condescending about it, it's just realistic -- is to commit to it, because if they commit to it now, it's on the table, their name, Saudi Arabia or UAE is on the table as saying they will do this. They don't want to do that until they have to, because, again, the key is do they have to? And they don't know yet. We have to wait for Blix. We have to wait for the U.N. vote. But then if they feel they have to, then you'll see it come as a realistic prospect.

I'm not saying he'll do it...

COSTELLO: Yah.

CLINCH: But the suggestion will become real.

COSTELLO: Got you.

David Clinch, thanks for bringing us up to date.

CLINCH: OK.

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