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CNN SATURDAY MORNING NEWS

Israel Considers Possible Response If Iraq Attacks

Aired October 12, 2002 - 09:11   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: During the Gulf War, Israel did not retaliate when it was hit by Iraqi SCUD missiles. But if there is a next time, Israel has said it will respond, and this has a lot of people worried.
Joining us from Jerusalem is CNN's Jerrold Kessel.

Good morning, Jerrold. What -- how are the Israelis preparing for any potential attack by Iraq?

JERROLD KESSEL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Carol.

Well, they are preparing, but talk of preparing is actually receding of late. And that's an interesting development. The Israelis doing their best to downsize their -- any possible involvement, even if it's only on the receiving end of any action in Iraq. And that perfectly suits the United States. It should be telling the Israelis in no uncertain terms they're best to be inconspicuous, any Israeli involvement in whatever shape or form in this gathering campaign against Iraq.

But talk one thing, and preparation's the other. And those preparations, preparing very much apace, both on the level of people being equipped or reinvigorating their gas masks and their equipment that they need, if in the event of Israel sustaining some kind of attack from Iraq, the gas mask production is going up, and around the clock in the factories that make the gas masks.

Israel, there have been Patriot antimissiles, antiaircraft missiles that have been put in place around the country, and also Israel has cited most emphatically its homemade, home-devised Arrow missile system. Now, that's an antiballistic missile system to intercept incoming Iraqi SCUDs. And there's one battery that's already operational and there's another that's being put in place.

So preparations continuing apace, and in a way, that leads the Israeli defense minister, when they were speaking, to say there's probably nobody better prepared, no country better prepared than Israel, both defensively, and, he said, offensively, Carol.

LIN: That's right, Jerrold, you just detailed some of the defensive measures. What about taking the offense? Have they said that they, in fact, will attack back if Iraq fires at them?

KESSEL: Well, they've kept it deliberately vague, but I think this has to be seen in the context, Carol, of what the Israelis have long felt is their need to juggle a delicate balance between defense and preemptive action.

And what they're really delighted here is that they think they -- the United States has adopted that doctrine this time around very much so in terms of preemptive action against Iraq. It's probably fair to say there's probably no other place that President Bush needs to convince -- leads less to convince of his arguments of the need to go after Saddam Hussein's Iraq. And there are most people in Israel who believe that he will in fact do so.

So while this looks like a rerun of the events of 1990 in the Gulf War, it is very different. Iraq then had much more capability of striking at Israel, Israel had much more -- has much more capability now, much more stronger position, both with that Arrow defensive action, but, really, in terms of what they might or might not do in the event of coming under attack, the key thing, I think here, we really don't know whether they will strike, how they will strike.

There are, is that psychosis, almost, in Israel about standing back and being hammered last time and not acting. But I think the key difference from last time to this time is their strategic alliance with the United States. And whatever Israel would do in the event of being attacked would probably be in coordination with the United States.

LIN: Ah, holding their (UNINTELLIGIBLE)...

KESSEL: And I think that's the key element that has to be taken into account now.

LIN: Holding their cards close to the vest and hoping that the United States takes care of the problem first.

In the meantime, President Bush and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon are meeting on Wednesday, continuing discussions they started in May, which was interrupted by a suicide bomb attack in Tel Aviv. So what is going to be on the table this time around?

KESSEL: Well, I think there will be something of the United States, again, waving a warning finger at Mr. Sharon, or a cautionary finger, saying, Don't let your battles get in with the Palestinians, get in the way of the preparations with -- for the campaign against Iraq. That the United States has been chiding Israel when it has got in the way, Israel's battles with the Palestinians.

But I think you can almost see figuratively when those two leaders again shake hands at the White House, that that handshake means a number of things. On the one hand, it could be Mr. Bush reassuring the Israeli prime minister again over Iraq, We'll take care of the issue. Don't worry about it. Or reassurance for Israel that the United States does really understand Israel's concerns.

But it is also, perhaps, a constraining hand on Mr. Sharon, saying, Don't do anything rash. Don't get in the way. Don't react independently. We're in this together.

I think there's also a third element to that handshake, and that's Mr. Sharon in a sense reminding the president firmly as he shakes his hand that if Israel does get hit, Israel has the ability to strike back, and that that handshake needs to be remembered, Carol.

LIN: That meeting taking place Wednesday.

Thank you very much, Jerrold Kessel, reporting live from our bureau in Jerusalem.

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