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Crossfire

How Close Is the Presidential Race?

Aired November 6, 2000 - 7:30 p.m. ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH (R-TX), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I feel so optimistic.

(APPLAUSE)

I like what I feel.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

AL GORE, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We're going to win. We're going to win. You can write it down, book it, check it off.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BILL PRESS, CO-HOST: Tonight, on this election eve, both candidates are confident, but only one can win. Who will it be? And just how close a race is it?

ANNOUNCER: Live from Washington, CROSSFIRE. On the left, Bill Press; on the right, Robert Novak. In the crossfire, former Republican National Committee chairman, Haley Barbour, a Bush adviser, and in Philadelphia, Ed Rendell, Democratic National Committee general chairman.

PRESS: Good evening. Welcome to CROSSFIRE, and one last look at this presidential campaign before the voting begins, a race so close both George Bush and Al Gore are still on the road tonight, trying to nail down key swing states and those still undecided voters.

We catch up first tonight with Al Gore in Flint, Michigan, where CNN's John King is standing by. John, this marathon continues. What's the mood there among the Gore folks?

JOHN KING, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Nervous optimism, I would say, Bill. They're getting good reports from folks on the ground in the key battleground states: places like Pennsylvania, Michigan. The smaller states key here. Besides also the big fight for Florida. But if the vice president loses Florida, small states will become key, states like Iowa, Wisconsin and West Virginia. At this hour, the vice president, as he has been all day, focusing on turnout. He's at an African-American church here in Flint, Michigan, about halfway through a 30-hour campaign finale, a marathon that began before dawn this morning in Waterloo, Iowa. The vice president greeting workers, union workers at the John Deere factory there. Then a rally in the rain with those charged with getting out the vote tomorrow. From there, it was onto St. Louis, the vice president standing side by side with the man the Democrats hope is the speaker-elect of the House of Representatives come Wednesday morning, Dick Gephardt. Again, that really in St. Louis geared at turning out the vote. Then stop three here in Flint, Michigan.

And before visiting the African-American church he is at now, Mr. Gore stopped by a UAW hall. Labor is the key engine of the Democratic turnout machine, not only here in Michigan, but in most of the big industrial battlegrounds: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, Wisconsin, Iowa, West Virginia. The vice president banking on union help.

They say it's quite close. They acknowledge that and all the polls show it.

They're voicing confidence they're going to pull off an upset in Florida, but if they don't, the vice president better win Wisconsin. He better win Michigan and Pennsylvania. It looks like, Democrats privately conceding, he may lose his home state of Tennessee -- Bill.

PRESS: Thanks, John, very much. We know you have miles to go before you sleep. So we'll let you go. Thanks so much for joining us on CROSSFIRE.

George Bush, of course, is also on the road, stopping at Tennessee, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Arkansas before heading to his home in Austin, where CNN's Jeanne Meserve is waiting for him.

Jeanne, this seems to be an era -- an air of confidence there among the camp, but the governor is taking nothing for granted, right?

JEANNE MESERVE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Bill, I would say they are positively oozing confidence here. You can see it in the schedule they kept today. They didn't go to the big battlegrounds; they went to the small ones and the highly symbolic ones.

The first and most symbolic of all, Tennessee, Al Gore's home state, and they think they can win it. It would be a nice trophy for them and would bring them 11 electoral votes.

From there, he went onto to Green Bay, Wisconsin, where they think they're in good shape. Iowa was the third stop. They think it's a little bit tougher to put things together there. And then later tonight, he will travel to Arkansas, Bill Clinton's home state, another one he would love to take, and they think he just might be able to do it.

The Bush campaign is conceding no states at this point, and they believe they have put away several states that had been qualified -- rated rather as battlegrounds, including the state of Florida. By their calculation, George W. Bush is in a position to wrack up 316 electoral votes tomorrow, well more than the 270 needed for a win. They're not taking anything for granted, however. They are putting out a massive get-out-the-vote effort. It will cost them something like $45 million, but they think that is what is going to win them the election -- Bill.

PRESS: OK, Jeanne Meserve, right down to the wire. Thanks, Jeanne. And now the candidates having done their jobs, it's all up to the chairman and the former chairman, Bob Novak.

ROBERT NOVAK, CO-HOST: Mr. Chairman, Ed Rendell, I've been talking to Democrats today, and of course, it is a close race, you don't know who's going to win. But what I hear is just a lot of backbiting and anger that Al Gore, with a golden economy, a tremendously high approval rating for the Clinton administration, is in a -- in a tossup race, because he is a lousy candidate. You must hear that from Democrats, too.

ED RENDELL, GENERAL CHAIRMAN, DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE: Well, sure, I hear some of it, Bob. But I, like all of those Democrats, can think of 12 months ago. Twelve months ago, we were on this show, George Bush would have had a 23-, 24-point lead over Al Gore. In many ways, the Gore campaign has made tremendous progress, first by Al Gore's great performance in the primaries against Bill Bradley, then by the terrific convention, the speech he made, the pick of Joe Lieberman. Al Gore's done some things awfully right in this campaign.

George Bush was a shoe-in last November, 20-plus points up. We've come a long way.

Have there been mistakes made in the campaign, Bob? Of course, there have. Would I have liked to have seen a better performance in the three debates by the vice president? Absolutely. He himself said the first one was too hot, the second too cold, the third one just right. I would have liked to have seen us reverse the order and start out with the first one being just right. I think we could have ended the campaign right then and there.

But listen, don't be too hard on Al Gore. I think he's done some things very, very well this year.

NOVAK: Well, let's try to be as negative as possible and talk about some of the bad things he's done.

(LAUGHTER)

And Chairman Rendell, just yesterday, trying to get out the African-American vote, he goes to a bunch of preachers in Memphis, and he says something I didn't think I would ever hear from a presidential candidate of a major party. And let's listen to it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GORE: Deep within us, we each have the capacity for good and for evil. I am taught that good overcomes evil, if we choose that outcome.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

NOVAK: Choose that outcome. Do you really think people like little Haley Barbour here is evil? Do you think that is -- that is the case, Ed?

RENDELL: No, and obviously, that was hyperbole. I saw the vice president this morning. I think it was this morning -- I'm on the same schedule he is -- on the "Today Show," and he said, of course, he didn't mean that we're good and the Republicans are evil.

And you know, Bob, when I took this job, I said I was going to try to be different and not say that all Republicans are bad and all their ideas are and vice versa. I think the vice president is on the campaign trail. Candidates get involved in hyperbole.

If you want to talk about something on the campaign trail, we can talk about...

NOVAK: All right. Let me -- let me just...

RENDELL: Wait, wait. We can talk about not knowing Social Security is a federal program.

NOVAK: Yes, yes, we can get into that.

RENDELL: Well, Bob, that should disqualify the candidate in my judgment.

NOVAK: No, I want to talk about something that wasn't -- that was followed up there on Sunday, yesterday by Vice President Gore, and let's listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GORE: When we opponent, Governor Bush, says that he will appoint strict constuctionists to the Supreme Court, I often think of the strictly constructionist meaning that was applied when the Constitution was written, how some people were considered three-fifths of a human being.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

NOVAK: Now, I can't mainly in my wildest dreams Ed Rendell, when he runs for governor of Pennsylvania...

RENDELL: Or whatever.

NOVAK: ... saying that his Republican -- associating his Republican opponent with the Democratic slavocracy that wrote the Constitution of the United States. I just can't believe that. Wasn't that over -- wasn't that over the mark?

RENDELL: Yes, I would have used a different choice of words to make the same point. The point, though, Bob -- and you've got to admit this -- that the so-called "strict constructionists" that have been appointed recently have really cut back on the progress that African-Americans have made. They've endangered affirmative action. I know that because my minority business enterprise program in Philadelphia was struck down, and we had a good program. It wasn't quota-based. It was oriented toward making up for historical prejudice that occurred and historical bias.

So I think the point the vice president made was correct. His choice of words was obviously not the best, obviously not the best.

PRESS: Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Haley Barbour, welcome back to CROSSFIRE.

HALEY BARBOUR, FORMER CHAIRMAN, REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE: Thank you, Bill.

PRESS: Do you remember -- remember "Morning in America," 1984, those Ronald Reagan ads, probably still the best political ads I ever saw? You know, Al Gore has his version of "Morning in America," Mr. Chairman. I'd like you to listen to them. Tells a little different story. Here it is.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GORE: It's early Wednesday morning, and in the seconds before you awaken, a shaft of golden sunlight flickers on your eyelids. The smell of the fresh-cut flowers on the table by the bed mingles with the aroma of fresh-brewed coffee wafting in from the kitchen. And you dance your way to the front door and you fling open the door to the warm rays of that sun, and you pick up the newspaper, and it says Gore-Lieberman wins!

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PRESS: Without being too cocky, Mr. Barbour, that could happen, this race is so close. Wouldn't you admit that?

BARBOUR: Oh, certainly, it could happen, Bill. I think the more likely outcome is that Bush and he'll win by four or five points, and win the electoral college.

But look, it's a close election, and I am glad George Bush is campaigning like it's a close election. Because it's mentioned earlier, you know, the Democrats are pulling out all stops, I mean, some of the most negative, nasty things being said in black churches, to scare old people through telephone calls. And, you know, we knew that was coming, but Bush has never deviated, never slowed down.

And I think it's important that where they take their organizational muscle among the unions and the African-American community. A lot of those union members are going to vote for Bush. And also, we've got more enthusiasm and energy on our side. But the worst thing for us is for any Republican, and Bush supporter to take anything for granted.

PRESS: But, Mr. Chairman, let's say I am at this point an undecided voter. So I want to see what these two guys are all about. And I turn on the TV to hear Governor Bush. And I hear Governor Bush talking about Social Security -- and this is just the end of last week.

Let's hear what the governor would have to say about Social Security.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BUSH: They want the federal government controlling the Social Security like it's some kind of federal program. We understand differently though.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PRESS: Like it's some kind of federal program -- duh. I mean...

BARBOUR: I think...

PRESS: Seriously, shouldn't that -- as the chairman said, shouldn't that disqualify a candidate running for president because he...

RENDELL: Totally disqualify.

BARBOUR: Are you trying to say to me with a straight face that you think that was anything other than a malaprop. I mean, do you think George Bush doesn't think Social Security's a federal program? You absolutely know that's baloney.

RENDELL: Bill, play that over for him, Bill. Play it over.

BARBOUR: He misspoke -- he misspoke, but he misspoke very much...

RENDELL: Play it over.

BARBOUR: He misspoke very much in talking about what we want. We want Social Security to be more than a federal program. We want to harness the strength of this economy to not only give senior citizens more retirement security, but to give young people a better return on their money, because that's exactly what needs to happen.

Does that malaprop...

PRESS: Mr. Chairman go ahead.

NOVAK: Ed, go ahead.

BARBOUR: Mr. Chairman, go ahead. I know you want to hump in there. Go ahead.

RENDELL: I just -- play it over. It was clear he didn't understand. It wasn't a malaprop. Please play it over for Haley.

BARBOUR: Well I'll tell you what, Bill... RENDELL: Can we do that? Let's play it over.

BARBOUR: Bill, play it over for Ed all the times you want to, and play over good and evil for Ed. Here is a guy...

PRESS: I don't think Haley wants us to play it over.

BARBOUR: Sure. Here's a guy in George Bush, who...

RENDELL: I can answer good and evil. I can answer good and evil, but your guy doesn't anything about anything.

NOVAK: All right, we're going to have to take a break...

BARBOUR: Ed...

NOVAK: No, no, no, no, no.

Take CROSSFIRE online tonight, first with Bush adviser Haley Barbour, followed by Gore deputy communications director Todd Webster. It all starts right after the show at CNN.com/CROSSFIRE.

We'll be back to talk about the ability of George W. Bush to be president after we hear this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

WILLIAM J. CLINTON, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I am little worried about what's going to happen to me when I leave office. They tell me I'll be lost for the three or four months because when I walk into a room nobody will play a song anymore and I won't know where I am.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

NOVAK: Welcome back to CROSSFIRE.

Americans tomorrow select their next president. Those pesky undecided voters still weighing the resume of the candidates. Twenty- four 24 years in public office in Washington by Al Gore, zero years by George W. Bush. But which background is actually better preparation for the president? We're asking Ed Rendell, general chairman of the Democratic Party, and Haley Barbour, former Republican national chairman -- Bill Press.

PRESS: Haley, it seems to me that the question of experience is still a key issue in this race, 25 years experience at the national level on Al Gore's part, five years basically untested Governor Bush down in Texas. And I'm not the first one to subject that being governor of a state is not necessarily the right training for the White House.

Please listen to this little clip here from a friend of yours.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) BUSH: Tried an untested governor before on the Democrat side and by the name of Jimmy Carter. And Jimmy Carter was a total failure. And there's a lot of folks around this country who believe that Mike Dukakis is another Jimmy Carter.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PRESS: Untested governor -- isn't it true what George Bush said about Michael Dukakis is 1988 and Jimmy Carter is true of George W. Bush today, right, Haley? Untested governor?

BARBOUR: You know, it should be no surprise, even to you, Bill, that the two most successful presidents of the 20th century have both been governors of large states: Franklin Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan.

If you go to the next most effective governors -- presidents after that, none of them had been senators except for Harry Truman.

But, look, the truth of the matter is there is no better, more applicable, literal experience than to be governor of a big state. But having said that, I would rather have a guy who's spent six years in government as a big state governor and most of his career in the private sector than have somebody who all of his life has never done anything but draw a government paycheck, which is what Albert Gore has done every year but the year he was reporter.

PRESS: That may be the year he was in the Army. Let me...

BARBOUR: Well he got a government paycheck then, I hope.

PRESS: Yes, he did, you're right -- touche.

Let me ask you about experience of a little different kind, which we heard a lot about last week, in which "Saturday Night Live," it got on them to poke through all the stuffiness in the campaign, picked up on their election special last night. This is a guy who's playing Dick Cheney opening the show on "Saturday Night Live" when he gets a phone call, Haley.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED ACTOR: Excuse me -- hello.

Where are you? Look, don't try to drive. Stay at the party, give Bob Dole your keys, I'll be right over to get you.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PRESS: Now, Haley...

BARBOUR: Just terrible.

PRESS: Humor is everything. Look, I don't have a problem with the incident because it's a guy who's clearly mended his ways. But he didn't tell the public about it, he lied to Wayne Slater about it at "The Dallas Morning News," and then he sent a staffer in to fill out a jury report in 1996 so he wouldn't have to lie about it on that report.

Aren't you offended by the coverup of this DUI?

BARBOUR: Am I offended? I'm offended by the fact -- I'm not surprised by the fact that the dirty tricks of the Gore campaign who will say or do anything to get elected.

PRESS: Is it a dirty trick to tell the truth?

BARBOUR: This is absolutely a dirty trick.

PRESS: To tell the truth?

BARBOUR: Secondly, I am not surprised that CNN and the other liberal media elite have tried to make a big deal out of it, when you know as well as I do no American could care less about this.

But third, I think it's helped George Bush. I think it's helped George Bush because it's made the people for him mad. It's reminded people what they dislike about Gore.

It's like the deal in Wisconsin last night, where the Gore campaign got caught handing out cigarettes in a homeless shelter to get people to vote absentee. And they got caught by a TV station. That's not going to make any difference in this election, and this deal is not going to make any difference either.

NOVAK: Can you agree with Haley Barbour that this DUI leak -- and by the way, Wayne Slater, the "Dallas Morning News" reporter, never said that George Bush lied to him -- but do you think that has anything to do with this campaign?

RENDELL: No, the actual DUI incident, not at all. Although, I want to say, Bob, that Haley couldn't be more wrong. This didn't have anything to do with the Gore campaign. It was an individual Democrat that did it. He did it on his own. He is somewhat eccentric, and he did it on his own -- period. Nothing to do with the Gore campaign.

But I do think -- let me finish -- I do think there is a disclosure problem. I think it's a big problem, but I think George Bush has made a big deal about trust and responsibility. Every federal employee who applies for a job, in the application form, has to fill out a blank that says, have you ever been arrested?

(CROSSTALK)

BARBOUR: They want to talk about it all the time.

RENDELL: Haley, correction. I didn't bring this up. We haven't brought it up. Bob Novak just asked me the question and I said, I don't think the drunk driving arrest is a big deal. I think that's something most Americans understand, although drunk driving is a serious offense. But failure to disclose that this has happened, when every other federal employee who seeks a job in federal government has to do it. That is wrong. NOVAK: You want it both ways. I want to get one more question in. The last three candidates who defeated the in party, Jimmy Carter in '76, Ronald Reagan in '80, and Bill Clinton in '88 had something in common. You know what it was? They were all untested, quote, unquote, governors.

Doesn't that make you a little worried, Ed Rendell?

RENDELL: Well, I didn't say that governor was not a great position to run for presidency. Obviously, I'm planning my run by running for governor.

I can't say that, but it's not the governorship. What Haley didn't tell the American people is the governor of Texas is the weakest governor in all 50 states in the form of government. He has very little responsibility. He doesn't even appoint the major officials in the government. So, that is important.

PRESS: Thank, Mr. Chairman, we have got to go. I know Haley has got something to say. We have no time.

Haley Barbour, thank you for being here.

Chairman Ed Rendell, thank you for being there.

Bob Novak and I will we will be back with closing comments and here is this Gore rally ready to take place in Flint, Michigan. We will take a quick look at this as we go out to this break. One more stop on the campaign trail.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You know that margin of error that they talk about?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

NOVAK: The CROSSFIRE continues on-line right after the show, first with Haley Barbour and then with Gore deputy communications director Todd Webster. The address: cnn.com/crossfire.

Bill, you know, I was on the trail with George W. Bush on Friday in Michigan and West Virginia and let me tell you something, you may not agree with him, but he has really become a very effective candidate. I give him tremendous credit because he's also pushed the issues which I think Americans believe in. And I think is going to elect him president and that's tax cuts for everybody including the rich, and a smaller government. So, I would say this is the first effective Republican campaign since Reagan in '80.

PRESS: I would agree with you this much: George Bush has run a better campaign than Al Gore has. He has run a very good campaign and Al Gore's campaign has sometimes been all over the place. But I still think the issues, Bob, are experience and the economy. And on those issues, as tight as it is, in the end, the American people are going to go for the guy with the experience and the guy that has helped produce this economy.

NOVAK: You know who is going to decide that...

PRESS: And not your tax cut

NOVAK: ... the people.

PRESS: And there we go. Vote everybody. Good night for CROSSFIRE. I'm Bill Press from the left.

NOVAK: From the right I'm Robert Novak. Join us again next time for another edition of CROSSFIRE.

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