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Inside Politics

McCain Trounces Bush in New Hampshire, Takes Momentum to New Hampshire; Bradley Demands Gore Apologize for Insults Hurled at Bob Kerrey

Aired February 2, 2000 - 5:00 p.m. ET



SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R-AZ), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: And I think their campaign may have taken some things for granted. I'm sure they're not taking anything for granted now.


JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: After John McCain's upset victory in New Hampshire, he and George W. Bush take their battle to South Carolina.

BERNARD SHAW, CNN ANCHOR: Al Gore follows up his Granite State win this his mind on the presidency of the Senate. And Bill Bradley finds a new line of attack while spending Ground Hog day in the chilly Northeast.


UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Six more weeks of winter there will be.


WOODRUFF: At least six more weeks of hard primary-season campaigning are ahead too.

ANNOUNCER: From Washington, this is INSIDE POLITICS with Judy Woodruff and Bernard Shaw.

SHAW: Thanks for joining us. The presidential primary season is all about capitalizing on your wins without resting on your laurels. So today, John McCain set out to prove he can pull off a victory outside New Hampshire.

CNN's Jonathan Karl reports on McCain's bid to beat the odds and George W. Bush in the next big Republican battleground, South Carolina.


JONATHAN KARL, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): John McCain stormed into Greenville, South Carolina at 3:00 in the morning and got right to work.

MCCAIN: My dear friends, we just came down, as you know, from making history in the state of New Hampshire tonight.

KARL: The campaign bussed in supporters from nearby Presbyterian College. They greeted their candidate more like a rock star than like a politician.

With a scant two hours of sleep, McCain was at it again, injecting a new theme in his campaign.

MCCAIN: My message to our Republican leaders and Republicans all over the country is that we can win.

KARL: But he says replicating his New Hampshire victory will not be easy.

MCCAIN: I have no illusions about how our work is still cut out for us.

KARL: McCain responded with humor to George W. Bush's charge that unlike McCain, he has waged a 50-state campaign.

MCCAIN: My response is that now he's running in 49 states.


KARL: Back on his Straight Talk Express, McCain said his decisive victory in New Hampshire has put an end to the idea that Governor Bush is the inevitable nominee.

MCCAIN: I think that everybody believed there was going to be a coronation. I mean, that was -- you know, people were measuring the drapes at the White House.

KARL: With rallies like this one in the town of Clinton, McCain began a several hundred mile roadtrip that will take him to every major media market in South Carolina.

Pointing to New Hampshire exit polls that show he beat Bush among registered Republicans and overwhelmed him among independents, McCain said it is his message, not his rival's money, that can put a Republican back in the White House.

MCCAIN: Thousands of people came down and registered yesterday in New Hampshire as Republicans to vote for me. So I don't think there's any doubt about my ability to expand the base of the party.

KARL (on camera): Looking beyond South Carolina, McCain will campaign in California and Michigan this weekend as he tries to transform what has been primarily a single-state effort into a national campaign.

Jonathan Karl, CNN, Clinton, South Carolina.

(END VIDEOTAPE) WOODRUFF: Well, the polls show that as of last week George W. Bush had a considerable advantage over McCain in South Carolina heading into the February 19th primary there. So Bush went there today, no doubt that wanting to believe that that advantage will stay put even as he was absorbing the lessons of his loss in New Hampshire.

Here's CNN's Candy Crowley.


CANDY CROWLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The plane had not yet left Manchester, but George Bush was already leaving New Hampshire behind.

GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH (R-TX), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: No matter what happens, there will be a moment in time when you all are saying, "Well, remember back in New Hampshire," and we'll be kind of scratching our heads, trying to remember back.

CROWLEY: Well, at the very least, Bush expects to remember South Carolina better.

BUSH: It feels a lot warmer here in the state of South Carolina if you know what I mean.

CROWLEY: Looking to temper the cold, hard fact of his New Hampshire loss, the governor of Texas basked in the promise of South Carolina's Christian conservative base.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Correct New Hampshire's mistake and showcase that George Bush is going to be the next president of the United States. And I present to you the governor of the great state of Texas, the Honorable George Bush.

CROWLEY: The largest crowd of his campaign, upwards of 6,000 people, showed up to hear Bush speak at Bob Jones University in South Carolina, where the state watchword is conservative.

BUSH: I look forward to publicly defending our conservative philosophy, and I look forward to making it clear to the people of this state and other states that our conservative philosophy will lead to compassionate results, that we conservatives, we who stand on conservative principles...

CROWLEY: The subtext here is that John McCain is liberal. Witness, Bush says, McCain's opposition to Bush's very Republican-like tax cut plan.

BUSH: That's bad enough when Democrats use these arguments against meaningful tax cuts. It's worse when Republicans, like my chief rival in this state, use them.

CROWLEY: Lest anyone miss the day's theme, Bush arrived at a press conference with a firewall of South Carolina conservatives and an import, the conservatives' conservative. DAN QUAYLE, FORMER VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: And of all the candidates that are running, I can tell you Governor Bush is the most prepared to be the next president of the United States.

CROWLEY (on camera): The Bush campaign's high hopes for South Carolina may be dimmed somewhat by a political tidbit: the man who introduced Bush is the ex-governor of South Carolina, a Christian conservative who was defeated two years ago by a moderate Democrat.

"So is this a problem?" said the ex-governor. "We've got some work to do but we'll win this."

Candy Crowley, CNN, Greenville.


SHAW: Now let's focus on why Bush was trounced by McCain in New Hampshire last night. As always, our Bill Schneider has been studying exit polls from the lead-off presidential primary.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Bernie, it's the day after: time for the campaign's to review the game films from yesterday's New Hampshire primary: fumbles, field goals, interceptions. Let's see what the guys need to work on for that next big game.

First, the GOP.

John McCain cleaned up with moderates, but conservatives, now that's where George W. Bush really fell short. Take a look.

Bush barely edged out McCain with conservatives, even after he had that terrific tax cut play. How did it happen? Well, he let Steve Forbes and Alan Keyes take a quarter of the conservative vote. Bush has got to figure out a way to squeeze those guys out in South Carolina and monopolize the conservative vote.

Here's an idea: Paint McCain as a moderate, maybe even a liberal. After all, the press love him.

Conservatives may have problems with Bush, but Bush can't paint McCain as the real threat.

Another problem for Bush: Only 17 percent of New Hampshire Republicans described Bush as a candidate who says what he really believes rather than what most people want to hear: 49 percent said that about McCain. Now that means voters see Bush as a typical politician, but not McCain. Bush has got to look less scripted, less handled. He should try the direct approach: Get out and mix up -- mix yourself up with the voters.

How did McCain win so big? Here's a clue. Only 23 percent of GOP voters said the fact that Bush is the son of a former president is important. By comparison, 63 percent said McCain's military record is important. McCain won on biography. Bush can hardly be competitive now with a war hero, but brining out his dad may not be such a good idea for Bush. If biography is not your strength, why call attention to it?

And by the way, Bernie, here is an interesting tidbit. Who do you thing got the 1996 Pat Buchanan vote in the New Hampshire primary this year? George Bush? A hard-line anti-abortion candidate: Steve Forbes, Alan Keyes? No indeed. How about John McCain?

The anti-establishment torch has been passed, and it has not been passed to the right.

SHAW: Bill Schneider.

WOODRUFF: All right. Well, joining us now, CNN senior analyst Jeff Greenfield and Bob Novak of the "Chicago Sun-Times."

Bob Novak, to you first -- and I want to ask both of you -- is George W. Bush still the front-runner?

ROBERT NOVAK, "CHICAGO SUN-TIMES": He's still the front-runner, Judy, but he is in some difficulty. You've got to put this in some context. Just about every major Republican in America picked him. They picked -- just about every contributor put money into him. I have never seen a non-incumbent candidate for president with the breadth of his support just to avoid this kind of an internal party fight so they could gear up for a run for president. And suddenly, this guy McCain, who they don't like, beats the Dickens out of New Hampshire.

So what are they asking themselves today? They're saying, is there something wrong with our candidate? Did we pick a guy who doesn't go over with the voters?

You can't make that decision on New Hampshire, but they're very, very worried about South Carolina.

WOODRUFF: Jeff Greenfield, where does New Hampshire leave George W. Bush?

JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR ANALYST: Well, it leaves him in a worse position than before. That's why I'm on this program, to offer such penetrating insights. What it really leaves him is in a position now where the second state really becomes critical. In other words, a second loss, and what Bob Novak is describing, instead of being a kind of a dim little whisper becomes a dull roar.

And I have to say the pointing out by Bill Schneider that brining the Bush family to New Hampshire may have backfired because it painted Bush as sort of Junior -- the president referred to him as my boy. I was a little surprised to see him introduced today by Dan Quayle, because while Dan Quayle may be popular among some conservatives, if you're worried about an image that you don't quite have the gravitas to be president, I would just have to say that's a curious choice for the man to introduce you.

WOODRUFF: Bob Novak, is South Carolina winnable for John McCain?

NOVAK: There's no question about it. I heard somebody talking about the lead holding firm in South Carolina. Leads in primaries don't ever hold firm. They're the most volatile politics in America. The can go up and down.

If the internal poll of the McCain people, which I think is accurate, he has a 15-point lead. Now I tell you, there's going to be polls taken this week, which will be coming out soon, and everybody in the Bush camp is biting their fingernails, because they -- there's a very good chance -- I think it's going to be a double -- a single- digit lead.

So this is going to be a very competitive race. It is not the old South Carolina where you had the whole establishment in lockstep. You've got two very bright, popular Republican congressmen who have taken the -- Senator McCain in hand. So this is a real contest.

WOODRUFF: Just quickly to Jeff, what is it that we should be looking for George Bush to do or say now?

GREENFIELD: I think we already heard it. And I think Bob Novak, as a longtime supply-sider, will be really interested. He is saying, John McCain's not a true conservative. And the evidence he has is that McCain isn't backing the 20-year-long Republican mantra, tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts.

McCain is betting you can sell conservatism and the idea that you don't need a big tax cut. And on the merits -- rather on policy grounds, I think that's going to be the most interesting debate over the next three weeks.

WOODRUFF: All right, Jeff Greenfield, Bob Novak, and just hang in there young men. We're going to have you back in just a few minutes. Thanks.

Coming up next on INSIDE POLITICS, the Democrats -- the Democrats after New Hampshire. Bill Bradley launches a new attack against Al Gore after losing to him last night. That didn't detour the vice president from the campaign trail, but a Senate vote did.


SHAW: Today, Bill Bradley returned to the "get tough on Gore" strategy he launched in the closing days of his New Hampshire campaign.

CNN's Chris Black traveled with Bradley to New York and Connecticut.


CHRIS BLACK, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): A day after losing his second-consecutive contest to Al Gore, Bill Bradley is back on the attack, demanding Al Gore apologize to insults tossed at Bob Kerrey, a Nebraska senator and Bradley supporter, outside a Gore campaign rally on Sunday in New Hampshire.

BILL BRADLEY (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: When his campaign demeans a Medal of Honor winner like Bob Kerrey, there should be an apology from Al Gore to Bob Kerrey, and he should take responsibility.

BLACK: The Bradley campaign claims Gore supporters threw mud at Kerrey, mocked his war injury and called him a quitter. A Bradley spokesman says the campaign has no firsthand knowledge of the identities of the people in the crowd, but Bradley says the vice president is responsible.

QUESTION: Senator, why did you wait three or four days after the incident to ask for this apology? It happened last weekend.

BRADLEY: It happened -- I wanted to make I confirmed everything.

BLACK: Bradley is attempting to paint the vice president as unworthy of the public trust.

BRADLEY: Politics as usual is a thousand attacks in a campaign -- attack, attack, attack -- and a thousand promises to whoever moves in order to get their votes. It is a politics of tactics. It is a politics of manipulation.

BLACK: He is casting his defeat as a victory over the press, pundits and polls, and vowing to press ahead: first in Connecticut.

BRADLEY: Yesterday was sending a message that the ball is bouncing on, the ball is bouncing on, the ball is bouncing on.


We came very close. We came from 17 points back in the last week, and we almost nipped it.

BLACK: And then in New York City.


UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Warmup time is over, and now the real fun starts. And...


BLACK: Senior officials in the Bradley campaign say Bradley intends to continue to criticize Gore's character, arguing that line of attack helped Bradley close strong in New Hampshire. As for the Gore campaign, a Gore spokesman said the vice president would condemn that type of language and points out that it is Bill Bradley whose involved in mudslinging and personal vilification -- Judy.

WOODRUFF: All right, Chris Black, traveling with Bill Bradley.

On this day after Al Gore's win in New Hampshire's Democratic primary, another opportunity to bask in the political spotlight did not pan out. CNN's John King reports on that and Gore's on-again/off- again day on the trail.


JOHN KING, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The vice president was up early, shaking hands at New York's Grand Central Station, but then a peculiar detour. A health care event was scratched and Gore rushed back to Washington in such a hurry he left Air Force Two behind and took a commercial shuttle flight.

The reason? Concerns there might be a tie vote on a Democratic proposal to prevent those liable for abortion clinic violence from using bankruptcy laws to avoid paying restitution.

AL GORE, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I'm honored to stand with this group of champions for a woman's right to choose.

KING: The vice president and his Senate supporters insisted it was important official business, not a stunt to rebut Bill Bradley's questions about Gore's commitment to abortion rights.

GORE: All three of them had called to say, this looks like it could very will be 50-50.

KING: But there was no shortage of testimonials.

SEN. BARBARA BOXER (D), CALIFORNIA: ... that if you have any doubt about Al Gore's commitment to women, to their families, to their health, to their right to choose, today is proof positive.

This man is going on two hours of sleep.

KING: In the end, Republicans refused to play along. Majority Leader Trent Lott lifted his call for a party-line vote, and there was no tie for Gore to break.

GORE: On this vote, there are 80 yeas, 17 nays.

KING: Then it was off to Ohio, one of the 15 states with Democratic primaries or caucuses on March 7th. Gore's goal is to be the only Democrat left standing come March 8th, his strategy shaped by these New Hampshire lessons.

CNN exit polls showed Gore beating Bradley 61 percent to 39 percent among voters who identified themselves as Democrats, and the vice president had a 62 percent to 37 percent edge among voters from union households.

But Bradley won big -- 61 percent to 38 percent -- among voters who made their choice in the final three days, a trend Bradley aides attributed to the late New Hampshire assault on Gore's trustworthiness.


KING: Now Senator Bradley wants weekly debates as he seeks forums to call the vice president's credibility into issue. The Gore campaign today responded with a cautious maybe, saying the vice president is more than willing to debate, but wants to have negotiations first to set the ground rules before making any firm commitments.

SHAW: John King, Ohio.

Now, let's bring back Bill Schneider with New Hampshire exit poll data on the Democrats.

SCHNEIDER: OK. Let's now look at the Democratic game films from New Hampshire. Bill Bradley needs to connect with core Democratic groups. Take women, for instance. Bradley and Al Gore tied the men's vote, but losing women cost Bradley that essential victory in New Hampshire. Next month, the Democratic campaign moves to states where union members and minorities are more important.

If Bradley's going to survive, he's got to get through to those traditional Democrats and convince them that he'll fight for them too.

Now, here's something that paid off big time for Al Gore: the economy. Two-thirds of New Hampshire Democrats said their families' financial situations have improved over the last four years, and they gave Gore a decisive edge. Gore's got to keep selling the economy: hard.

Look at how much money you're making now. Do I deliver, or what?

But Gore's got to be careful not to oversell his ties to Bill Clinton. Lucky for Gore, most New Hampshire Democrats thought his ties to Clinton were not that important. Voters like Clinton's economic policy, but they don't want a third term for Clinton. Those who thought Gore's ties to Clinton were important voted for Bradley.

Bradley's job is to link Gore to Clinton's personal excesses, the fund-raising scandals, not the policies. Bradley's got to get more voters to say: "Yes, Gore's ties to Clinton really are important. We may not need new policies, but we sure do need a different style of leadership." -- Bernie.

SHAW: Thank you -- Judy.

WOODRUFF: All right. Well, joining us once again, Bob Novak and Jeff Greenfield.

Jeff, on the Democrats, is Bill Bradley any sort of serious threat at this point to the vice president?

GREENFIELD: I can say definitively we don't know yet, because what Bill Schneider pointed out is the absolute dilemma that Bradley campaign faces, which is among Democrats he's relatively weak. And in the next round, on March 7th in those big states -- in New York and Ohio and California -- in terms of delegate selection, independents can't vote.

So the question is, can he use the trust issue to make an argument against Gore that Democrats will listen to? And that argument, I think, has to be is not only is Al Gore someone you don't want to vote for, but he will take us down.

And I would point out one quick point: The more John McCain looks like a possible opponent in the fall for Democrats, the better Bradley does, because I think Democrats trying to see Gore on the same stage with McCain can see how that trust issue really could play against the Democrats.

So, that's, you know -- in one sense, I think Bill Bradley has to be rooting for John McCain to keep doing well.

WOODRUFF: Bob Novak, how much mileage can Bill Bradley get out of raising questions again and again about how much people can trust Al Gore?

NOVAK: It's his only hope, Judy. And it worked very well in New Hampshire. As Jeff said, of course, you have a situation in New Hampshire where independents can vote.

One of the Bradley advisers described it to me in fight terms: that for the first seven rounds of the fight, Bill Bradley played rope-a-dope. He laid against the ropes and got hit, and the vice president kept building up an edge.

Then suddenly Bradley in the last week took two little left hooks, and -- two little left jabs, and suddenly there's blood all over the place. Is Al Gore a bleeder? Is he the kind of person, if you really hit him on -- much harder than Senator Bradley has so far -- on the Buddhist temple, on the "no controlling legal," on his imagining himself and his exaggerations, does he begin to bleed all over the place?

I don't know the answer to that, but I believe it's the only hope that Bill Bradley has, because he's not going to beat him in the primary by saying, "I have a better health care plan."

WOODRUFF: Just quickly -- I want to ask both of you -- the effect of this coming -- what? -- month-long, five-week-long hiatus in the Democratic contest. There won't be a primary for another five weeks. Jeff?

GREENFIELD: Never seen anything like it in American politics at this level of so many primaries. It's an air war on television, and that raised the question that Bob was talking about. The only way to go after Gore is with television ads attacking him on these basic questions of trust. And that is powerful ammunition for the Republicans in the fall. It has to be giving Democratic Party folks real nightmares.

NOVAK: Judy, it's the only hope that Senator Bradley has, because if they were to go into New York and California and Ohio next week, he's a goner. But he's got to somehow in the next five weeks close that gap.

Will he do it? It's unlikely, but we'll be watching because it's going to be possible.

WOODRUFF: All right, Bob Novak, Jeff Greenfield, young men both, thank you.


INSIDE POLITICS will be right back.


SHAW: In that New York Senate race, first lady Hillary Rodham Clinton released her first official campaign ad today, just days before her formal campaign announcement Sunday. The 60-second radio spot begin airing in major markets across the Empire State.


HILLARY CLINTON, FIRST LADY OF THE UNITED STATES: Hi. This is Hillary Clinton, and there are many goals I'd like to accomplish as your senator.

First, I understand that there's a lot of stress...

UNIDENTIFIED ACTRESS: ... a lot of stress in raising children and trying to make a living at the same time. That's why...

CLINTON: ... we should expand the Family and Medical Leave Act so families have more time with their kids. And also...

UNIDENTIFIED ACTOR: And also we need to modernize schools and give kids more things to do after school.

CLINTON: ... after school.


SHAW: That ad, which calls for campaign volunteers, is expected to air around the state for at least a week.

Now, this is the first ad paid for by Mrs. Clinton's campaign. The state Democratic Party funded the earlier television ads featuring Mrs. Clinton.

And Judy, there is much more ahead here on INSIDE POLITICS.

WOODRUFF: Coming up in the next half hour, sizing up South Carolina: a look at the candidates' strength and weaknesses as the GOP race rolls on. And later...

SHAW: ... the first-in-the-nation primary has a fund-raising boost: a look at who is seeing dollar signs now that the results are in.



SHAW: We will have more of this day's political news coming up, but now this brief look at some other top stories. Authorities are abandoning their search for survivors in the crash of Alaska Air Flight 261. The aircraft went down Monday off the coast of Southern California. The Coast Guard says it is unlikely that anyone could have survived this long in the cold waters of the Pacific Ocean. The focus will now move toward recovering the plane's cockpit voice and data recorders.


VICE ADMIRAL TOM COLLINS, U.S. COAST GUARD: We've had reports of multiple -- the two pingers, we believe -- we -- the United States Navy and its equipment have identified that. And that will be obviously a focal point during -- during the recovery phase. And I'm -- I'll leave exactly what those game plans are to the National Transportation Safety Board and the Navy.

But that was -- one of the products of our search effort was identification of the two pingers.


SHAW: And there is this: memorials for Flight 261 turning up on California beaches. Alaska Airways says tomorrow it will take relatives of those on board the flight to the crash site.

A mixed reaction from Wall Street to news of another key interest rate hike: the Dow falling while the Nasdaq finished the day a little higher. The Fed says it will raise short-terms interest rates a quarter of a percentage point. It's the fourth rate increase since June.

To see what long-term effect the interest rate hike might have on the markets, please tune into the MONEYLINE NEWS HOUR. That's here on CNN, beginning at 6:30 Eastern Time.

WOODRUFF: Terry Nichols, serving a federal life term for his role in the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing, has been arraigned in Oklahoma on state charges. Nichols now faces a 163 counts of 1st degree murder and conspiracy. He was convicted in Colorado of involuntary manslaughter and plotting to blow up the Murrah Federal Building.

The deaths of those killed in the explosion were not included in the federal trial. Oklahoma Country district attorney Bob Macy says that he plans to pursue the death penalty.

Testimony is under way in the trial of four New York policemen accused of killing an unarmed immigrant. During opening statements, the prosecutor told the jury that the officers acted with depraved indifference to Amadou Diallo's life. The officers say they thought Diallo was reaching for a gun, and that's why they fired at him 41 times.

The defendants are expected to take the stand in their own defense.

SHAW: When INSIDE POLITICS returns, a look at how John McCain and George W. Bush stack up in the race for South Carolina. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WOODRUFF: For Republican presidential hopeful John McCain, the South Carolina primary may be his chance to turn a single win into all-important momentum. But McCain's bid for the Palmetto State will not go unchallenged. And in South Carolina, Texas Governor George W. Bush may have the advantage.


WOODRUFF: John McCain's road to the nomination is littered with one hurdle after another: the next in South Carolina, just 17 days away. It was there that George W. Bush's father made a stand in 1988 and there that the son must do the same this year.

History is on Bush's side. Just as New Hampshire loves to knock off front-runners, South Carolina loves to resurrect them.

Just four years ago, Bob Dole used South Carolina to break the Pat Buchanan insurgency. Before him, there was Bush and Ronald Reagan.

South Carolina Republicans are conservative and pro- establishment, the opposite of New Hampshire's moderate mavericks. Bush is the clear establishment candidate, with the backing of Senator Strom Thurmond and the state's Republican old guard.

As a Southern governor who wears his Christian faith openly, Bush is a solid cultural fit.

But John McCain says he is unfazed: He has campaigned in South Carolina more than any other candidate: 51 events to Bush's 26. And he has some popular Republicans on his side too. He'll be there almost every day until the February 19th primary. McCain's strategy: get out the vet.

South Carolina has a high percentage of veterans, about 400,000, not to mention military personnel. McCain has groups of veterans organized in every community, political ties that highlight his compelling personal story.

Democrats and independents can also vote in the state's open primary, and McCain is targeting them too.

On the issues, McCain's anti-tobacco stand may be a liability as might his demand for campaign finance reform. On taxes, however, McCain's position is on target. By more than three to one, South Carolina Republicans favor a smaller tax cut and more money to pay down the debt and protect Social Security over a large tax cut of the kind Bush is pushing.


WOODRUFF: Well, joining us now to talk more about the South Carolina primary, Lee Bandy of Columbia's newspaper, "The State." Lee Bandy, first of all, tell us about the voters in South Carolina who will be going to the polls for this Republican primary. How are they different from the voters in New Hampshire?

LEE BANDY, "THE STATE": Well, first of all, hi, Judy.


BANDY: Good to see you again.

WOODRUFF: You too.

BANDY: South Carolina voters are so much different than New Hampshire. We are a traditional state, and the Republican voters here, the regular Republican voters in the primary, tend to follow the lead of the leadership, sort of like sheep.

And of course, we all know the leadership here in South Carolina is solidly behind George Bush. And so he is going to get a majority of the regular Republican primary vote. So what does McCain have to do to overcome that?

Well, first of all, he needs to got about 30 percent of the regular Republican primary vote. Then he needs a good turnout, as you mentioned, in the veteran community. But in addition to that, he needs a good turnout among the reform-minded independents. And then he needs to get some moderate to conservative Democrats.

Now, that's a tall order. It's a strategy that calls for turning out people in a Republican primary that don't ordinarily participate in the Republican primary. So he has a tough road to hoe, and it's not going to be easy, but it's doable.

WOODRUFF: It certainly sounds tough as you have laid it out.

Lee Bandy, in talking with some of the McCain people in New Hampshire, they were telling me that there really is what they described as a generational divide between Republicans in South Carolina. There's the old guard -- former Governor Beasley, certainly former Governor Campbell, but then there's the new Republican guard -- Congressman Lindsey Graham, Congressman Mark Sanford. Are they right about that?

BANDY: I agree. There's sort of competition in this race between those who subscribe to the politics practiced by Carroll Campbell and those who subscribe to the politics headed by Lindsey Graham.

So the Carroll Campbell wing of the party is suddenly becoming the old guard, and the Lindsey Graham wing is becoming the new guard. And it's going to be interesting to see who wins out.

WOODRUFF: How much does McCain's victory in New Hampshire affect his ability to improve his chances in South Carolina? Does it affect it at all? BANDY: Well, I think that McCain gets a lift coming out of New Hampshire, but in the past South Carolina voters have ignored the results of New Hampshire and they may do that again.

As you pointed out earlier, South Carolina has rescued many establishment candidates.

And I might add that no one has gone on to win the Republican nomination without first winning South Carolina.

I think this primary is critical to both Bush and McCain, but more critical to McCain, because if he loses here, I think it's over with -- it's over for him.

If Bush loses, the campaign will be extended somewhat. But this is again the pivotal primary in the Republican contest.

WOODRUFF: And just quickly, Lee Bandy -- we've less than a minute -- what is it that John McCain needs to talk about in South Carolina to put together the coalition that you just described a minute ago?

BANDY: I think he needs to pound on his reform theme and getting -- giving government back to the people. That's -- that's how you get the independents out. That's how you get the Democrats out to vote for you. And then his appeal to the veterans, his call for improved health care and so forth, that's what he's got to do.

WOODRUFF: All right, Lee Bandy of "The State" in Columbia, it's great to see you again.

BANDY: Thank you.

WOODRUFF: And I know we'll be talking to you many times probably between now and the primary on February 19th.

BANDY: Well, we look forward to it.

WOODRUFF: Thanks again. Thank you.

Still ahead on INSIDE POLITICS, the insurgent candidates: Will their New Hampshire performances fuel fund raising. Bernie will ask Larry Sabato.


SHAW: The end-of-the-year FEC filings show Bill Bradley and rival Al Gore with roughly the same amount of money available for the primaries: both just under $20 million. George W. Bush has refused federal matching funds, but with more than $31 million on-hand his war chest dwarfs Senator John McCain's with just under 8 million available.

Let's talk more about the candidates and their campaign money with political analyst Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia.

Larry, how will their performances in New Hampshire affect the fund-raising prospects of Bill Bradley and John McCain?

LARRY SABATO, POLITICAL ANALYST: Bernie, it's bound to improve their performances. The history of both Iowa and especially the New Hampshire primary is that the winner has a window of two or three weeks in which he can raise a great deal of money.

Now, Bradley wasn't a winner. McCain was a big winner. But Bradley beat expectations. So I think both of them are going to do very well in the money game for the next three weeks or so.

SHAW: And if McCain were to beat Bush in South Carolina, then he would -- what? -- rocket?

SABATO: He would absolutely rocket. When you look at campaign finance, you see a number of kinds of donors. Some of them give because they really believe in a candidate. Others give because they want access, and most of all, they want to be with a winner.

For example, the television producer Norman Lear has already given the maximum $1,000 to Senator Bradley, Vice President Gore and Senator McCain. That is not terribly unusual. You will have double or even triple givers among the community of people to whom $1,000 is not much money.

SHAW: Explain for -- expand for us where McCain and Bradley are getting their money.

SABATO: They both have a long -- a long list of contributors who've helped them get to the Senate in their early race for president. Senator McCain, of course, is chairman of the Commerce Committee, has been relying on those awful special interests that he tends to campaign against. I guess the special interests are the ones that aren't giving to him. But he depends on the telecommunications industry. U.S. West has given him a great deal of money, AT&T, lots of people in Arizona, obviously, his home state.

Senator Bradley has, as a three-term senator from New Jersey, has gotten a lot of money from Wall Street and also from chemical firms in New Jersey.

SHAW: Now, if McCain's fund raising does improve, how much more of an advantage still will Governor George W. Bush have? After all, we just reported that he has $31-million-plus on hand.

SABATO: There's no question that even if Bush ends up losing the Republican nomination, he will outspend John McCain by a country mile. But let me predict this to you...


SABATO: ... campaign money is less important than people think. And a candidate can win even if he spends considerably less, especially if it's a candidate like John McCain who can get a lot of free media time. That means you. That means the television news people covering a candidate who's interesting and exciting and says things that are provocative. SHAW: One last quick question, do McCain and Bradley have enough money to see this to the end? To continue throughout the campaign?

SABATO: They have enough money, or they will have enough money, to finish the campaign period that they are viable for. Once they cease to be viable in winning primaries and winning caucuses, they'll cease getting money and they'll have to drop out.

SHAW: Larry Sabato.

SABATO: If they drop out. They may win. We'll have to see.

SHAW: We'll -- what's the cliche? "Only time will tell."

SABATO: Exactly.

SHAW: Larry Sabato, thanks.

And up next, Stu Rothenberg and Charlie Cook on New Hampshire. The candidates who won big and the campaign messages that lost out.


WOODRUFF: For more on the presidential race post-New Hampshire we turn to Stu Rothenberg of "The Rothenberg Political Report," and Charlie Cook of "The National Journal."

And gentlemen, you're not here to bat cleanup, as one of you just said a minute ago.

Charlie, I want to talk to you both about what messages, what issues worked and what didn't, first of all.

Tax cut: George W. Bush, John McCain, two very different ideas. How much difference did it make to the voters on the Republican side of New Hampshire?

CHARLIE COOK, "NATIONAL JOURNAL": I think you can put -- we can have a funeral for tax -- for big tax cuts, because I think that was a big message coming out of there. If you were going to say what state's the most anti-state (sic) in the country, it's New Hampshire. Which party's mostly anti-tax? It would be the Republican Party. And here you had two big tax cut candidates, and they got 44 percent between them -- George Bush and Steve Forbes -- where a Republican with a much more modest tax cut package does exceedingly.

I think it's just yet another nail in the coffin for -- in terms of big tax cuts any time soon.

WOODRUFF: Stu, you see anything?

STU ROTHENBERG, "ROTHENBERG POLITICAL REPORT": Well, I think Charlie's generally right about tax cuts, but in this race I think he's actually wrong to focus on any issues. I don't think issues mattered at all in this race. This was about chemistry, personality, charisma, leadership, heroism, personal style. And so yes, tax cuts did not drive the vote, so I think Charlie's right in that regard. But it's not as if other issues mattered that much more. Issues weren't involved.

COOK: But my point is that Governor Bush opened himself up for general election attacks with his great big tax cut that clearly did nothing for him. And so we're not really disagreeing. It didn't do anything for him.

WOODRUFF: But about in South Carolina? I mean, now we -- we keep talking about this poll that shows by three to one people in -- Republicans in South Carolina would rather see the surplus spent for Social Security, pay down the debt. But there's no sign yet that George W. Bush is going to stop talking about it.

ROTHENBERG: Well, he's got to talk about something. I'm not sure what he's going to talk about. But again, I think that monkeying with the rhetoric, even the agenda, is -- is kind of moving the chairs around on the Titanic or the Lusitania. Whatever. Some boat. The fact of the matter is...


The fact of the matter is again McCain's got the mo, and he can go down there. He can appeal to independents, maybe even Democrats voting, purely on the basis of leadership and style. It's not until we get later when there are lots of primaries, when there are closed primaries when it's harder for him to do that.

WOODRUFF: Thirty seconds, Charlie and Stu, anything else that George W. Bush needs to be thinking about doing differently right now.

COOK: I think they need to get a whole new speech. I think they need to do a lot differently, because the two states where people have focused on this race, he's underperformed.

ROTHENBERG: Somehow he needs to mature very quickly. I don't know. He needs to develop some gravitas. I don't know how he's going to do it.

WOODRUFF: More gray hair.

ROTHENBERG: I think it's going to be really interesting.

I mean, this is a test of George W. Bush the person, not the campaign. I think the campaign has done pretty well. He is the one who the focus is on right now.

COOK: You predicting McCain, Stu?

ROTHENBERG: I'm not. No, I'm predicting Bush. But McCain -- McCain's on a roll.

WOODRUFF: All right. We've got to deal with Democrats in two minutes. Al Gore, Charlie, what did he prove yesterday and what does he still need to prove? COOK: I think it wasn't quite as a wide margin as I expected it to be. I thought it was going to be five, six, seven points, but it was a pretty good margin. And I think -- I think it's as well as he could expect under the circumstances.

I mean, the thing is New Hampshire was made to order for Bill Bradley. If Bill Bradley doesn't win New Hampshire, I don't where in the heck he's going to.

So I think it went very, very well for Gore.

ROTHENBERG: Charlie's in part right. The problem is what Bill Bradley has done and will do over the next five weeks is expose that soft underbelly of Al Gore, which is ethics and credibility and character even. And I think that's a long-term problem for the Democrats, because I think Gore's going to be the nominee.

WOODRUFF: You think it's a problem, Charlie, if that's what Bradley keeps talking about?

COOK: I think it's a bit of a problem, but you know, I think that there are not just enough Volvo, Saab and Peugeot drivers in the Democratic Party to nominate Bill Bradley.


I mean, he's got to win, you know, after the superdelegates, 60 percent of the non-superdelegates to win. I just don't think this happens. There's just not a broad enough constituency.

ROTHENBERG: I agree in the primary, but I think the problem is that Bill Bradley is going to be the Republicans' best friend for the general election.

WOODRUFF: You mean because of all the comments...

ROTHENBERG: Because of the criticisms, the focus. He's got to go on ethics, he's got to go on character, and that has some long-term problems for the Democratic nomination.

WOODRUFF: And let me ask you all what I talked to Bob Novak and Jeff Greenfield about earlier in the program. What happens to the Democrats in the next five weeks? Between -- up until the next contest?

COOK: Well, I don't know. I plan to spend a lot of time talking about Hillary and Rudy. I mean, I think with her announcement coming up Sunday and Giuliani probably coming shortly thereafter, I think there's going to be a lot of focus on Senate races and other things.

ROTHENBERG: I think for a couple of weeks the focus will be on the Republicans in South Carolina.

WOODRUFF: And who does that help or hurt, or does it?

ROTHENBERG: Well, I think -- I think any time you shorten the campaign it's going to help the front-runner. So it's going to help Al Gore. But sooner or later, Bradley's going to be spending the money and he's going to get attention, and if he moves at all in the polls, the focus is going to return to the Democrats. That's bad news for the vice president.

WOODRUFF: All right. We're going to leave it there. Charlie Cook, Stu Rothenberg, thank you both. We're all wide awake here.

SHAW: I was going to say, after two weeks on the road, Iowa and New Hampshire, they're so alert.

Well, that's all for this edition of...

WOODRUFF: Unlike us.


SHAW: ... of this edition of INSIDE POLITICS. We're going to see you again tomorrow, well-rested, when our reporters will be on the campaign trail with Gore, Bradley, Bush and McCain.

And you can go online at for a complete report on the New Hampshire primary.

WOODRUFF: And this programming not: The Republican presidential race will be featured tonight on "CROSSFIRE" at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. The guests will be McCain strategist Vin Weber and Bush adviser Bill Paxon.

I'm Judy Woodruff.

SHAW: And I'm Bernard Shaw. We can't wait to bring you "WORLDVIEW" next.


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