CNN Transcript - TalkBack Live: What's at Stake in the New Hampshire Primary?

BOBBIE BATTISTA, HOST: The tiny towns of Dixville Notch and Hart's Location give McCain and Bradley a tiny edge as they post overnight returns in the New Hampshire primary, but it was just the beginning.

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AL GORE, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: No, I'm not joking you, it really is Al Gore. Tell her it's Al Gore, G-O-R-E.

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GARY BAUER (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I obviously have to start winning some of these.

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GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH (R-TX), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm upbeat. I like my chances.

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STEVE FORBES (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Our voters are committed voters, they make up their minds, they come out and the pollsters seem to have missed them so far.

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BILL BRADLEY (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The polls are all over the place, some polls have me ahead, some polls have me behind, but I didn't do this for polls, so I don't care.

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(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ALAN KEYES (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It's about time we got back to the understanding that we trust the people of this country to do what is decent.

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BATTISTA: What will the voters do and what's at stake in the New Hampshire primary?

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to TALKBACK LIVE on this primary day. Well, it didn't take very long to count the votes in Dixville Notch and Hart's Location, New Hampshire. On the Republican side, voters in Dixville Notch cast 12 for George Bush, 10 for John McCain, and one for Steve Forbes. Among the Democrats, Bill Bradley got four votes, and Al Gore two. And one bit of trivia here, the Republican winner in Dixville Notch has gone on to become the Republican nominee every year since 1968. Over in Hart's Location, Bradley was again the winner, but it was McCain on the Republican side.

Here to talk about the excitement in New Hampshire, Bill Press, co-host of CNN's "CROSSFIRE," and John Fund, a member of the "Wall Street Journal" editorial board. Welcome to both of you.

BILL PRESS, CO-HOST, "CROSSFIRE": Thanks, Bobbie, good to be back.

BATTISTA: So, if you can keep up with the numbers, if you add them both together, Bradley and McCain are your two leaders. Bill, will McCain take New Hampshire?

PRESS: I don't think Dixville Notch and Hart's Location mean anything, to tell the truth, other than that everybody in those two hamlets votes -- God bless America. I wish it were the same all across America. But I do think McCain will win the New Hampshire primary.

Since I've been up here talking to independents, talking to Republicans, I think McCain's message has a lot of resonance. I talked to some independents today who said even though they think George Bush is a better candidate, they voted for McCain because they want to keep McCain alive and they want to keep the debate going. I think McCain walks out of New Hampshire a winner, and I think that will change the dynamics of this entire race.

BATTISTA: John, how significant a win would be it for McCain in New Hampshire? Will it give him some momentum?

JOHN FUND, "WALL STREET JOURNAL": It would keep him alive, and I think that you are right, New Hampshire voters are ornery and they do like to keep candidacies alive, and perhaps they do want to hear more down the line from South Carolina and the other states. The big break for John McCain is probably two out of every three independents is going to vote in the Republican primary and that's the bulk of his support. Among regular Republicans, George Bush is going to flatten him.

BATTISTA: And independents, we should say, will most likely go for Bradley and McCain, correct?

FUND: Yes, but with Bradley losing a lot of the independents to McCain because they can vote in either party, it is a problem. The problem for John McCain down the line is very few states allow independents to vote in primaries, so he will be at a disadvantage unless he can build up a real head of steam in South Carolina.

BATTISTA: Well, Bill, what about Bill Bradley? He's got a little bit of a lead there if you look at Dixville Notch and Hart's Location.

PRESS: Well, just a comment first on John McCain. I mean, nice try, John Fund, but John McCain's appeal is not just to independents. John McCain is appealing to Republicans, if you want a third wave of Republicans or new Republicans, whatever you want to call them, who don't buy the message that tax cuts are enough.

I mean, John McCain is coming with a new message which is tax cuts plus, if you will, and a lot of Republicans particularly in this good -- these good economic days are buying that. As far as Bradley goes, I mean, he's made a valiant fight here, you know, he was ahead in the polls here a long time. I have to tell you, Bobbie, after Iowa, losing almost two to one, if Bill Bradley does not win here in New Hampshire -- and it looks like Gore is going to win -- if Bill Bradley does not win here I think it is all over for Bradley.

BATTISTA: Well, let me just tell you that our audience today, which is about the size of Dixville Notch, because this is the vacuum created when the Super Bowl crowd leaves Atlanta. We have a rather strong showing for McCain in this crowd today, though, we had at least four or five people, at least. Joel up here from New Jersey, John McCain man. Why John McCain, Joel?

JOEL: I think he's got the experience that is required to be president.

BATTISTA: And Pepe (ph), you too?

PEPE: Why do I like him?

BATTISTA: Yes.

PEPE: He's cute.

(LAUGHTER)

BATTISTA: All right. Ed, you're a McCain man -- no, you're Bradley. Kevin is McCain.

KEVIN: Well, I think he tells the truth. He speaks honestly, and you get what you are going to get from him, yes.

FUND: Bobbie...

BATTISTA: Yes, go ahead.

FUND: John McCain clearly is not your typical assembly line candidate, people like him. However, in Republican primaries a lot of people worry that maybe some spare parts from the Democratic Party got mixed into his platform and that has hurt him.

You know, Bill, I hate to tell you this, but the number-one issue among New Hampshire's Republicans in all of the tracking polls is taxes, and John McCain has actually lost the tax debate to George Bush. If George Bush pulls off an upset today it will be because of his tax plan, not John McCain's stunted tax plan.

PRESS: Well, I hate to pop your little bubble, John, but I am in New Hampshire, I've been out there, I've been to the crowds...

FUND: I just came back a few days ago.

PRESS: I particularly went to two huge John McCain town meetings over the weekend, he stands there for an hour, as you've probably seen, and he'll take questions on any subject. There was not one question, not one question on taxes. That is not what is most uppermost in Republicans' minds today. They are concerned about Social Security and Medicare and John McCain says he'll do both.

FUND: You went to the wrong rally. If you had gone to George Bush's rally you would have heard a lot about taxes. If you had gone to Alan Keyes' rally, if you had gone to Steve Forbes' rally -- you've only gone to one rally.

BATTISTA: I'll tell you -- let me -- you know what? I'll tell you what the number-one issue is that comes up in our audiences every time we do politics is education.

PRESS: Yes. Not taxes.

BATTISTA: That's the number-one issue. Yes. Not taxes.

FUND: It is. The problem is that people do instinctively realize that that's mostly a local concern. New Hampshire spends less state support in education than any state in the country because it's all locally control. So they realize there is a limit to what a president can do.

BATTISTA: John, let me ask you something, would the Republicans rather run against Gore or Bradley at this point? I mean, I think in the beginning, you know, their thought was it would be easy to run against Gore, it would be easy to flatten him.

FUND: Well, Bradley would be a civilized candidate to run against. Al Gore -- I tell you, if Al Gore had a corporate sponsor it would be Burger King's the Whopper. I mean, it is going to be a mean campaign. Al Gore engages -- and I won't call it lying, I would call it alternate conceptualizations of reality, and he has shown like Bill Clinton, his mentor, the ability to say and do anything to win. It makes him a very formidable candidate despite all of the baggage that comes from this scandal-ridden administration.

PRESS: I must tell you, Republican spin is a wonderful thing to hear and even more wonderful to see. Look, the fact is Al Gore is a very aggressive campaigner, he goes for the jugular, he's proven that, he's a very skillful debater, he would be a formidable opponent.

By the way, Bill Bradley would also, but I have to -- from a Democratic point of view, just slipping your question, Bobbie, I will be very honest with you, I would tremble if John McCain were the Republican candidate. I think he would be very, very difficult to beat. I think he could set this country on fire given his resume and given his message.

FUND: Bill, do you think conservatives should follow your advice? Do you really have are their best interests at heart? And as for Al Gore being aggressive, you don't know the half of it. This is what Al Gore said in 1991: "You are going to have to rip the lungs out of anybody else who is in the race and you're going to do it right." Rip the lungs out? That's not aggressive, that's almost maniacal.

PRESS: No, but that's my kind of candidate. You're in there and you're in there to win. Bradley says it's not like sports, the hell it isn't!

FUND: But you're not supposed...

PRESS: Pardon me, John. I did not interrupt you.

FUND: But you're not supposed to say anything to win.

PRESS: John, John, pardon me, I didn't interrupt you. I would just like to finish. Bradley says it's not like sports, it is like sports, there are two teams on the field and you play to win. An answer to your first question, no. I don't think conservatives should take my advice, but I think Americans should take my advice. John McCain is a good man, he's got a good message, I think he would make a good president. If I were a Democrat I would fear having him as a Republican nominee because I think he would be hard to beat.

BATTISTA: Well, the audience was just lamenting with me a few moments ago that, you know, we want our politicians -- or at least we poll that way -- we want them to take the high road, we don't want them to engage in negative tactics, and somebody who takes the high road like Bill Bradley did and it certainly has done nothing to help him.

PRESS: Well, you know, Bobbie, if I can, it's not that you take the low road, it's that you answer the charges. And I think that's what Bill Bradley's problem was, that he put out this big health plan and it was a good health plan, but Al Gore pointed out that there were some flaws in it and Bradley just kept saying, you know, stop being negative, stop being negative. But pointing out flaws in a plan is not negative, that's what politics is all about. And so, I think Bradley could have stayed on the high road but answered the questions. When he didn't, he started to lose ground in Iowa and here in New Hampshire, and I think it hurt him. He turned around and got negative a little too late maybe to make a difference.

BATTISTA: Let me ask you both a question, because we always talk about this during the election process. Why is New Hampshire so important?

PRESS: John.

FUND: Because they have a history of 50 years of meeting the candidates face-to-face, questioning them, forcing the candidates to run through their paces, and not everyone in America is that civic minded. New Hampshire has a tradition of that. It's not the most representative state in the country, but there are other primaries down the line, and it is in a sense sort of the proven ground for the national campaign.

If you can survive New Hampshire, it means that you are a real candidate, you're not just a synthetic candidate that goes from TV studio to TV studio. I think it's -- look, like Winston Churchill said about democracy, it's not the best system, but it's better than anything else.

PRESS: I'd have to agree with that. I mean, New Hampshire should not have the importance, frankly, it does. It's too rural, it's too small, it's too white to really have such an impact on this process.

And I'll tell you something else -- the voters here are too spoiled. I mean, a quick anecdote -- I was at a town meeting on Sunday in Peterborough, met a woman who had come to see John McCain last April. She liked him, but she wasn't sure. She came last December. She liked him; she wasn't sure. She came back January, and on the third time shaking his hand, she decided she would vote for them.

Now either these people are too independent or John McCain has a hard time making a sale. But the fact is, John is right -- this is the first primary in the nation. The candidates do have to come here. They work to hard. They have to appeal to those independent voters. And, Bobbie, since 1952, 10 out of 11 presidents won the New Hampshire primary first before they were elected president. So there's a historical significance that candidates simply can't ignore.

BATTISTA: But do you think the people of Dixville Notch are electing who they really want, or are they electing who they think is going to win so they can keep that winning streak going from 1968? You know, I mean, you have to wonder about it. They're so ingrained in this process, and they get this limelight every four years.

PRESS: I have to believe they vote for whom they want to. I think they vote their conscious. I think they vote whom they think would be the best president. I sure hope so.

FUND: In the general election, Dixville Notch votes for the loser than the winner, so it's only in the primary that they have that tradition.

(CROSSTALK)

BATTISTA: Believe me, I'm not insulting the folks of Dixville Notch. It's something that crossed our mind. All right, we've got to take a break. Still ahead: why voters praise one candidate for being everything they want, then they vote for someone else?

We'll be back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BATTISTA: Do voters know what they want? Take a look at these CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll results. Among New Hampshire Democrats, both Gore and Bradley are seen as about equal when it comes to having a better vision for the future, and Bradley is considered more trustworthy. But on the question of who can win, it is Gore 74 to 18 percent. Among New Hampshire Republicans McCain is considered more trustworthy than Bush. He is seen as having a better vision and being more in touch with the voters. However, 68 percent say Bush has a better chance of winning in November. So gentlemen, what is wrong with this picture?

BATTISTA: Gentlemen, what is wrong with this picture?

FUND: Not much wrong with it. Voters like name brands. They say they want change, but in the end, they go to that which is comfortable, and Al Gore has been vice president, a capable vice president, for seven years, and George Bush is the son of a famous president. He has served as governor of Texas. He has all kinds name I.D. himself, and voters like that. Remember, with the exception of Bill Clinton, almost everyone who gets to the White House had to run more than once. So they go for the tried and true.

BATTISTA: But, Bill, name brand does not guarantee for one second you're going to make a great president, does it?

PRESS: No, but those numbers remind me of the numbers for President Clinton. People show overwhelmingly that they approve of the job he's doing as president, something like 65 percent. And yet, almost the same number disapprove of him and his personal behavior. And in these polls, I think you see they may trust Bradley or McCain more when it comes to vision or trust, but they want to win. They're pragmatic, and that's why they score so high on the winability factor. I mean, Republicans want to take back the White House. Democrats want to hold on to it and want to take back the Congress, and that turns out to be the most important factor in both parties.

BATTISTA: Anybody dropping out after the New Hampshire primary?

PRESS: I believe that -- this is speculation; I do not know -- but I believe if Gary Bauer does as poorly as our poll shows, that if he's down below 5 percent, that he'll have no choice but to drop out of the race. If Steve Forbes gets what he says he's going to get, 20- plus, he stays in the race, and I think Alan Keyes is in the race until they turn off the lights in Philadelphia.

(LAUGHTER)

BATTISTA: John. John, what are your thoughts on that?

FUND: Bill Bradley has got his dander up. He thinks Al Gore has done him wrong. I think he's going to ignore the calls from Democrats to get out of the race, a little bit like Ted Kennedy after the New Hampshire primary in 1980. I agree about Alan Keyes -- he is not only running for president; he's running for talk-show host, and I think he's going to carry his audition tapes all the way to Philadelphia.

PRESS: Watch out, Bobbie.

BATTISTA: Yes, I'm worried.

Are either one of guys surprised, though, by the showing that Keyes made in Iowa?

(CROSSTALK)

PRESS: Go ahead, John. I'm sorry.

FUND: No, he's passionate, and even though if you meet him personally, there's a bit of an edge to him that is a little bit disconcerting, people like someone who gives it to them straight. And what you get in Alan Keyes is exactly what you want if you want moral fervor and you want a real constitutional lecture. It's the kind of substance that successful candidates don't often go to, but candidates who aren't risking much, like Alan Keyes, find there is an audience for it.

PRESS: No, I've got to tell you, I wasn't surprised at all. I mean, Iowa, in many respects, is more like a revival meeting than a primary. I don't mean that disrespectfully. But 40 percent of the Republicans who go to the Republican caucuses in Iowa are born again Christians. And Alan Keyes, he was like a prophet in Iowa, with the rallies, that I went to, the churches that I went to, I mean, they loved him, and they were very enthusiastic, and they turned out to vote for him. I think he also proved in Iowa that Alan Keyes is willing to do anything to win, including jumping in the mosh pit with perhaps, according to Gary Bauer, obscene lyrics,

By the way, Bobbie, yesterday you saw that Gary Bauer flipped off the back of the stage when he was flipping a pancake, but he did come off with one of the best lines of the campaign I think. He was asked afterwards what he learned, and he said, I learned that jumping into a mosh pit works better when there are people in the mosh pit.

(LAUGHTER)

BATTISTA: Very good.

PRESS: We'll miss him.

BATTISTA: Dino from the audience has a question.

DINO: Yes, I was just wondering who our guests thought would benefit most if a few of the Republican candidates dropped out, Bush or McCain?

BATTISTA: In the Republican race, who would benefit more -- you mean, like if Bauer dropped out, who might pick up Bauer and Keyes votes?

FUND: Well, Bauer's vote is in the asterisk now in New Hampshire, so I don't know if that makes much difference. If Steve Forbes were to eventually bow out, it would be tough because on the one hand he's been attacking George Bush a great deal, on the other hand he's far more conservative than John McCain. It would probably be a wash.

PRESS: I would have to say I think the dynamics of this race are going to change completely after we know the results of today's voting. If McCain wins, McCain's numbers will come up in South Carolina. We recall last week that the numbers nationwide for the first time showed George Bush just 1 point ahead -- 2 -- 3 points ahead of Al Gore, which is really a statistical tie. If McCain wins here in New Hampshire, next week's numbers could show Bush losing to Al Gore for the first time in the national polls. If that's true, then all bets are off.

BATTISTA: Willa from California has faxed us, "Bill Press is rooting for McCain because he knows he would be easier to beat than Bush."

PRESS: I am not rooting for McCain. McCain is a conservative Republican. I would not vote for him. I -- my simple statement was I think he would be tougher for Democrats to beat than George Bush. I think he would be a tougher candidate.

BATTISTA: Bill, you started looking ahead to the next couple of primaries, and we might as well do that since New Hampshire is almost over. South Carolina is coming up, Michigan, New York and California. What has to happen in these places now?

PRESS: Well, let me tell you, the Republicans have a real -- the Democrats get some time off now. The Democrats don't have anything going on until March 7.

But the Republicans have to turn around and go into Delaware this Saturday, McCain is not going there, Bush and Forbes are, then they go to South Carolina on the 19th of February. After that it is Arizona and Michigan on the 22nd of February. There are the -- Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on the 26th and 27th, then they come up to Virginia, North Dakota on the 29th. It's going to be rock 'n' roll. And on the 7th of March, like the Democrats, they have New York and Ohio and Georgia and most of the New England states and the big enchilada, California. So, Gore and Bradley, if Bradley is still in -- I think John is right, I don't think he is going to get out -- will have time to retune and get the message out there and reshape their message. The Republicans are just going to have to keep hitting it. If McCain wins here, it will continue to be a lively contest; if Bush wins here, I think he is the nominee.

BATTISTA: John.

FUND: Bobbie, there's still some surprises. Remember in Alaska, where Steve Forbes in a straw poll held George Bush to a dead tie. Delaware, where McCain isn't playing, Forbes won that in '96. Even despite a poor showing in New Hampshire, he could surprise, because it is a small state and Forbes could spend an awful lot of money on grassroots efforts.

BATTISTA: We have to take another break. We'll be back in just a second.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BATTISTA: Let me go to some folks in the audience who are bringing up some good points. Joel, go ahead.

JOEL: We talked about funds just before, my question was in terms of McCain, does he really have enough funds to run against the huge lead that our friend from Texas has?

BATTISTA: John.

FUND: He's got about $3 million or $4 million in the bank, and he's waiting for about $6 million more in matching funds, but here's the irony. You know, matching funds are basically public financing, and so few people have checked off that form on their income tax to divert a dollar or $3 to the fund that there's not enough money there. So the irony is the same kind of clean politics that John McCain is advocating may do him in, in the end, because people don't want public financing of campaigns, less than 18 percent check that little box even though it won't cost them anything.

PRESS: I would have to say, Bobbie, John McCain does not -- the answer to the question is, no, he does not have the money today. If he wins here in New Hampshire today, it will be like hitting the jackpot, because I think a lot of those Bush supporters are going to think twice, they are going to want to put some money John McCain's way. If he wins here he'll have the money to be competitive beyond New Hampshire.

FUND: Only if they do it on the Internet, not if they do it through U.S. mail.

BATTISTA: All right. Kevin.

KEVIN: I think the Bradley campaign handled the issue of his health really poorly, and I was wondering how the guests think that will impact him in New Hampshire. FUND: Well, Paul Tsongas should have taught Bill Bradley a lesson, because when Paul Tsongas ran in 1992 there were all kinds of lingering questions about his health and it turned out later sadly that he did die. And I really believe that Bill Bradley should have come out right in advance, laid out all of his medical records, because these lingering questions the last few days in the primary may ultimately cost him victory.

BATTISTA: Jack -- go ahead, Bill, I'm sorry.

PRESS: I just have to agree with that. I mean, I think several candidates in this race have learned the hard way the lesson that there's nothing better than full disclosure and telling the truth. If Bradley disclosed this in the beginning I don't think we would be talking about it today. The fact that a reporter had to ask it before we find out and now there are five incidents in January, it raises a question. I don't know how many votes it changed here in New Hampshire, but it was something that -- I saw the figure, like 88 percent of New Hampshire people knew about Bradley's heart condition because of the way he handled it, poorly.

BATTISTA: Jackie from Illinois faxes: "One thing I don't want is the federal government's tentacles in my local school system, give me a tax break any day."

And Ed has a question about issues.

ED: I just wonder if you gentlemen get the pulse on how important the gun-control issue is in New Hampshire and how important you think it is with the candidates for the rest of the road down to the election?

FUND: I don't think it is as important now. But I will tell you, if Bill Clinton's idea for photo ID for all new handgun owners really becomes an issue in the campaign it will be tough, because the polls show people want gun control, but the people who vote -- the intensity factor is with the people who want the Second Amendment rights maintained, and I really think it could boomerang and hurt Al Gore in the fall if he makes it a centerpiece of his campaign.

PRESS: Gun control is a very big issue in New Hampshire, live free or die, you know, the motto on the license plate. But particularly in a Republican primary, and all the Republican candidates have a very similar issue on gun control, so it has not become an issue in this particular primary.

I agree with John, I think in November this year it's going to be a big issue, there will be a big difference between Republicans and Democrats. Al Gore or Bill Bradley is going to want more gun-control laws passed, toughen the ones that we have, toughen the Brady Bill. Republicans, including George Bush, are certainly against that. We'll see what the American people think. I think they want tougher gun control laws. We'll find out.

BATTISTA: Jack in the audience has -- you're responding to Bill, right? JACK: Yes, responding to Bill and John. First, I'd like to say I think John Fund, the comments he's made, are right on target. Bill made the comment that taxes don't seem to be the important thing. I think they are important to a degree. But the Republicans -- and I'm one -- the key issue is big government. We're sick of the big government looking at us.

I'm 63 years old. I'm retired. I get Social Security. We'll have Medicare in a couple of years.

I'd give up both of those for less government.

FUND: Well, the big issue...

PRESS: Well, Jack, since you directed it to me, I would just say I think you're in a minority of those who would want to give up Social Security and Medicare. But I didn't say taxes are not important. I said what I see in this primary, particularly between Bush and McCain, is a debate over the size of the tax cut. And Bush is basically saying a big tax cut only. And McCain is saying: "We're bigger than that. Let's have tax cuts plus fix Social Security, fix Medicare and pay down some of the national debt."

That's a battle for the heart and soul of the Republican Party.

FUND: I agree. And I'll tell you, if George Bush had not his tax plan, I think he would be in a whole lot more trouble: because remember, Bill, New Hampshire is the only state in the country without a sales or an income tax. Taxes do matter there, especially when you run a campaign based on them, and people come to believe, well, you just might cut taxes.

The biggest obstacle people who propose tax cuts have is the cynicism of people who don't believe they'll ever happen.

PRESS: But you see the Republicans in Congress tried to sell a $792 billion tax cut this year. They couldn't sell it to the American people. I think George Bush will have trouble in November selling one twice as big.

(CROSSTALK)

FUND: They knew Clinton would veto it. The voters knew Clinton would veto it, so they knew it wouldn't happen.

(LAUGHTER)

PRESS: Nice try.

BATTISTA: All right, you guys. We've got to go. Thank you both very much, once again, for joining us. Bill, John, appreciate your time.

PRESS: Good seeing you. Thanks, Bobbie.

BATTISTA: And we'll be back in just a minute, and we'll rate the candidates with Cynthia Tucker and Ramesh Ponnuru. Back in a second.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BATTISTA: Welcome back. We're talking about the New Hampshire primary today, and joining us now this half-hour is Cynthia Tucker, editorial page editor at "The Atlanta Constitution," and Ramesh Ponnuru, senior editor at "The National Review." Good to see both of you.

CYNTHIA TUCKER, "ATLANTA CONSTITUTION": Hi, Bobbie.

BATTISTA: Cynthia, let me start with you. What do you think is going to happen overnight in New Hampshire?

TUCKER: Well, you know, I follow the polls just like everybody else. I think Gore is going win it on the Democratic side -- excuse me. And I think John McCain is going to barely manage to eke out a victory on the Republican side and give his campaign a little more momentum.

More than anything else it probably would mean for John McCain if he wins in New Hampshire that he will be able to attract more money. I think that's the reason we pay so much attention to the first primary, first national primary even though New Hampshire is a very small state and not very representative.

If John McCain can pull out a win here, he looks much more electable to big-money contributors, and if he can get a little more money, that means he can keep his campaign going for a little longer.

BATTISTA: Is it all just about money, Ramesh? Because it's interesting that John McCain is, you know, perceived as a maverick, but here he is in a party that doesn't particularly mavericks.

RAMESH PONNURU, "NATIONAL REVIEW": No, I don't think that the major impact is going to be financial. I think the interesting thing that's happening here is, actually as Bill Press said earlier in our show, if John McCain wins New Hampshire and Gore has a strong showing too, I think that then George W. Bush starts to look less inevitable, and you have a situation where Bush starts slipping behind in the national polls against Gore.

And then you get to test the proposition that Bush's critics have been advancing for more than a year now, which is that all there is to Bush is inevitability and electability, and once the balloon is popped, there's nothing left there.

We're going to be able to see whether that's, in fact, the case. And I think, in the end, it's not going to be the case, because I think Bush will, in the end, win the Republican nomination.

BATTISTA: Let's bring those polls that we had a few moments ago about vision and trustworthiness and moral leadership, and that kind of thing.

It was interesting to note that George Bush, on the Republican side, was last in almost -- why do Republicans not trust George W. Bush? Or would seem not to -- or voters, Cynthia?

TUCKER: Well, I think that what we have going on here is that George Bush is the establishment candidate. He's an incumbent governor of Texas, and that in itself tends to spur a little bit of suspicion among voters.

But I also think the issue of big money is the one that distinguishes those candidates that voters say they trust more and those that they don't.

Interestingly enough, those who are known for attracting a lot of money, who've been good at winning a lot of -- who've been good at raising a lot of money, are those who tend to attract a little more suspicion from voters, because voters are savvy.

They understand that if industry, if special interests are giving you a lot of money, they probably are not giving you a lot of money with no strings attached. They expect you to do something for them in exchange for that money. And George Bush has, clearly, set new records in fund raising: so much so that he's already been able to say: "Forget the limits. I'm not going accept public funds anyway, because I won't to need them."

So, that in itself tends to earn a little bit of voter distrust; but, conversely, if you have a lot of money, it also probably means that you're more electable.

Voters understand that as well. And so, Bush is probably the one on the Republican side who is going to come out with the high electability numbers.

BATTISTA: Ramesh, do you agree?

PONNURU: Well, that's an interesting perspective. I have a somewhat different interpretation. I think different things are happening in each party.

I think, on the Republican side, there's a pretty simple explanation. And that is John McCain is running a campaign on character, character, character.

All of his ads and all of his events are about what a great hero he is. And on the other side, Bush is being attacked on character issues. I mean, Steve Forbes is saying: "You can't trust Bush's word on taxes."

So, I think that this -- and I think that that's playing not as a tax issue, but as a character issue. And in fact, it's not even helping Forbes because of that; it's helping McCain.

So I think it's a reflection of the dynamics of the race on the Republican side.

What I think is happening on the Democratic side is that Gore's vices and his virtues are the same thing. That is, when Bill Bradley says, "Al Gore is going to do anything, he'll say anything to get elected," I think a lot of Democratic partisans say: "Yes, that's what we want. And so, sure he's not trustworthy, but this is -- if this is the price of victory, you know, we've put up with a lot of things we didn't want to put up with in Bill Clinton, and we'll put up with it in Al Gore too."

BATTISTA: All right, we've got to take a break here. You mentioned Steve Forbes, Ramesh. We haven't talked about him at all. And we will when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

Let me take a phone call here from Texas. Renee (ph), are you there.

RENEE: Yes.

BATTISTA: Go ahead.

RENEE: OK. I'm calling because everybody is making a big deal of what Bill Bradley said on Al Gore. I'd like to let everybody know I am African-American, and I don't see no way Bill Bradley coming to the South and winning.

He's going to have to depend on California, Texas, and places like Georgia, where the minority vote is very important.

We have seen Al Gore for the past seven years. And I can tell you: 83 to 90 percent of African-Americans loved the Clinton/Gore campaign.

And we could care less about campaign financing, the abortion stuff, because we already know what Al Gore has done. He's the one who has to prove to us or give us a reason why we shouldn't vote for Al Gore.

BATTISTA: All right, Renee, thanks very much. I got the feeling that she, other than Al Gore, she didn't feel the candidates were addressing minority issues much, Cynthia?

TUCKER: Well, she's wrong about Bill Bradley. She hasn't been paying him very much attention on the stump. Bill Bradley can make a claim to having been much more thoughtful on issues of race in this campaign than Al Gore has.

I think that when Bill Bradley comes South, he will also bring some of the African-American basketball players that he played with, with him, who will testify that he's a good and decent man that they have a lot of respect for and that they felt always had a lot of respect for them.

Now granted, that was a long time ago, and people who were basketball fans today may not remember that. But I don't think Bill Bradley's weakness will be that he is not strong enough on the specifics of issues that concern minority voters, such as affirmative action or racial justice.

In fact, he has been quite outspoken and has addressed those issues more thoughtfully than Al Gore has.

BATTISTA: Let me go to Sean (ph) in the audience who is from South Africa -- has a question.

SEAN: Yes, being South African and not being able to vote, obviously, what affects America ultimately affects all of us around the world in some small way.

And I was wondering about issues, environmental, and how -- what kind of effect that has on winning votes in a presidential election like this.

BATTISTA: Ramesh, I see an -- expression on your face, kind of says: "Environmental issues, they don't seem to fly too high with voters."

PONNURU: Well, you know, Al Gore has certainly made the environment an important part of his political identity in the 1990s, and he is going to be talking about some of these issues.

In fact, I saw him at a town meeting on Saturday in Lebanon, New Hampshire, where he explained that -- he repeated his line from "Earth in the Balance," his book in 1992, where he said that we had to have a 25-year phase-out plan to get rid of the internal combustion engine.

And he said that was a mistake. We can do it a lot faster than that. We don't have to wait for 25 years. I'm sure that that that sort of issue -- that sort of comment is going to be made into an issue by the Republicans, who are going to try to use it to paint Gore as being sort of an environmental wacko.

BATTISTA: One more break. We'll be back in a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BATTISTA: We don't have too much time left.

Enver (ph) from South Africa -- question.

ENVER: Yes, just concerning the history of our country at the present moment, seeing that we have a black president now, Tseki Mtabumbeki (ph) running. Would the United States as a whole, seeing that Keyes is running for election, would there ever be a time that the United States will ever have a black president running as well.

TUCKER: Absolutely, and it will happen in my lifetime. Running certainly. I can see a time not that long from now when there will be a strong black candidate, perhaps even from the Republican side, who knows? But I think that there is a chance that there will even be one elected in my lifetime.

PONNURU: I think particularly from the Republican side. I mean, Colin Powell was regarded as somebody who had had a very strong shot at the presidency if he had run, and he would have run as a Republican, and interesting in this race, Alan Keyes and also Herman Cain (ph) earlier had discussed running for the presidency. The only two blacks running in the presidential race were Republicans.

BATTISTA: All right. We're out of the town. Cynthia Tucker, Ramesh Ponnuru, thank you both for joining us. Appreciate your insight.

PONNURU: Anytime, Bobbie.

BATTISTA: And we'll be back with more TALKBACK LIVE tomorrow. Stick with CNN, though, for complete election coverage, and join us again at 3:00 tomorrow.

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