The July launch of the space shuttle Columbia MESSAGE BOARDS:    Space Shuttle INTERACTIVE    3-D VRML    • Control the Shuttle Discovery    (PC only)

September 8, 1999
Web posted at: 5:32 p.m. EDT

ATLANTA (CNN) -- OK, class: gather 'round the screen, get out your Palm Pilots, and let's play the Shuttle Shuffle!

Now listen up, because this is an advanced game -- with a lot of off-nominal things to consider: dinged wires, hurtling meteors, lagging Russians, lagging Americans, balky gyroscopes and uncertain funding are all I can think of right now. There are probably some more that we could factor in, but I am afraid we might crash our Pilots.

First off, some review: NASA was planning a fairly busy fall. The agency had hoped to launch Endeavour in September, Discovery in October and Atlantis in December. But then Columbia opened up a can of wiry worms during its launch in July. As it turns out, it was a bare wire touching a burred bolt that caused the short circuit that shut down a pair of engine controllers a few seconds after liftoff. It is probably redundant for me to tell you that without redundant controllers, Columbia might well have ended up on runway in Africa.

A short that affected the engine controllers aboard Columbia led to the inspection ot the entire shuttle fleet

As a result, the Shuttle High Command felt the safety of the fleet might be short-circuited. So off came some payloads, panels and insulation -- and in came a crew of wiring inspectors. Nearing the home stretch, they have found at least 38 nicks, dings and other anomalies in the 100 miles of wiring that meanders through the belly of Endeavour -- another 26 in Discovery.

Since Atlantis is last in line, she will be checked out later this month. And the orbiter that brought worrisome wiring to light, Columbia, is being prepped and primped for a piggyback ride on a 747 to Palmdale, California, for a major overhaul, perhaps as early as next Sunday, whereupon her nervous system will be given a thorough examination.

Which leads me to the latest inside, relatively informed speculation about what will fly -- and when (maybe):

Endeavour is on tap for the flight designated STS-99. During the so-called Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), Commander Kevin Kregel and his five crewmembers will hang a long boom perpendicular to the payload bay (for you sailors, Endeavour will be trimmed for a run). The boom will allow the crew (working 24/7 over 11 days) to complete the most accurate and complete topographic map of the Earth's surface that has ever been assembled.

Previous Plan: September 16-27: (14th for the orbiter -- 96th for the fleet)
Current Thinking: This mission will step aside for STS-103 (see below) -- becoming the 97th shuttle to launch, sometime after the Leonid Meteor Shower, which ends on November 20 (also see below). That would make this mission a turkey for NASA folks (and those who cover them) seeking a Thanksgiving holiday.
[EDITOR'S NOTE: This change was confirmed Thursday, with a launch date for STS-99 set for no earlier than November 19.]
Mitigating Against: SRTM is partially funded by the Pentagon (where accurate maps are an important thing -- remember the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade?). There are apparently some concerns the defense money could run dry before the shuttle rolls to the pad.

Hubble Space Telescope

Discovery is to complete the STS-103 mission. Commander Curt Brown and his crew of are training to for the third Hubble Space Telescope repair and servicing mission. This mission was announced only six months ago after an equipment failure left the Hubble with only 3 operative gyroscopes [see the March 16, 1999 Downlinks for more on this]. This is considered a high priority mission because Hubble is only one failure away from becoming scientifically useless.

Previous Plan: October 14-24: (27th flight for Discovery and 97th for fleet)
Current Thinking: This mission will fly pretty much as scheduled -- but as the 96th shuttle flight (see above). It might very well slip to October 21. This crew better pack some Halloween costumes.
[EDITOR'S NOTE: NASA announced Thursday that the launch date for STS-103 would be no earlier than October 28.]
Mitigating Against: There may not be a need for this crew to rush. The Hubble is doing an Energizer Bunny: still going.

The much anticipated, long-delayed Zvezda Service Module is now very close to being pronounced ready for a ride on a Proton rocket to rendezvous and automatically dock with the International Space Station.

Previous Plan: November 12th launch from the Baikonur Cosmodrome.
Current Thinking: To be extra safe, NASA is hoping the Russians will wait until after the Leonids (see below). At a launch readiness review meeting in Moscow later this month, They will try to persuade them to launch Zvezda on November 20 -- which happens to be the anniversary of the launch of the first piece of the ISS -- the Zarya (or FGB).
Mitigating Against: The Russians may, or may not, be interested in moving their launch date.

As Earth passes through the orbit of the comet Temple-Tuttle, cosmic detritus bores into the Earth's atmosphere at 158,000 miles per hour. Because the meteors are seen in the neighborhood of the sky where the constellation Leo resides, the shower is called The Leonids. With all those fast moving rocks out there, it is a good time not to send spacecraft into low Earth orbit, and so there will be no launches this week. Block off the time on your Pilot.

Previous Plan: November 14-20
Current Thinking: November 14-20. Orbital mechanics rules.
Mitigating Against: Nothing short of Armageddon.

With Commander Jim Halsell at the helm, Atlantis will fly to the International Space Station with a load of cargo, supplies parts and tools for future missions.

Previous Plan: December 2-13 (21st flight for Atlantis, 98th for shuttles)
Current Thinking: This mission will slide about a month to January 20-31, 2000 -- giving NASA enough time to unsnarl its shuttle launch schedule.
Mitigating Against: Possible delays launching -- and mating -- the Zvezda with ISS.

This is the mission we have all been waiting for. The first so-called "Expedition" crew of William Shepherd, Yuri Gidzenko and Sergei Krikalev will fly to live aboard ISS for 116 days.

The Russian service module, Zvezda

Not worth singling out individual missions, but the bottom line is almost every ISS construction mission will slip by a month. A possible fly in the ointment on this is the U.S.-built Laboratory Module. Assuming the entire schedule moves to the right one month, it is slated to fly to the ISS at the end of May. The lab is at the Cape, but there is still a lot of testing work to be done. Keep your fingers -- and not your wiring -- crossed.

Space Correspondent Miles O'Brien's column appears weekly.