November 26, 1999 Web posted at: 10:09 a.m. EST (1509 GMT) by Rebecca Sykes

From...

(IDG) -- No victor will emerge soon in the battle between asymmetrical digital subscriber line modems and cable modems, analysts this week said in response to a new study of the two different ways to obtain high-speed Internet access.

DSL is a networking technology that allows for faster connection speeds over standard telephone lines than the analog modems used by most homes and small businesses. Cable modems use the same ordinary cable that brings additional channels to televisions.

Worldwide shipments of ADSL modems grew 74% sequentially in the third quarter of 1999, according to a new study by Cahners In-Stat Group. By year-end, ADSL modem shipments will reach 1.2 million worldwide, according to the study.

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But those figures will not surpass shipments of cable modems, which will see growth of 27% and outship ADSL modems by a factor of two to one, according to Cahners In-Stat.

Together, the two technologies will coexist, battling for new users, analysts say.

"We do see them running side by side," says Brad Baldwin, analyst at market researcher International Data Corp. (IDC). "This isn't VHS vs. beta."

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Cable modems will remain strong in the residential market, since many households already have the cable infrastructure in place, analysts say. But few businesses currently have cable infrastructure in place, and DSL is the winner so far in the business market.

"We see DSL as having a major advantage in terms of business deployment," says Christopher Whitely, project manager at Insight Research in Parsippany, N.J.

The two-tier structure will most likely continue, with each technology serving in its separate niche, analysts say. By 2004, there will be 10.1 million DSL lines in service in the U.S., compared to nine million cable lines in service, according to Whitely.