From...

August 11, 1999
Web posted at: 12:29 p.m. EDT (1629 GMT)

by Danny Rimer

(IDG) -- When was the last time you checked out the most popular downloads on www.download.com and ICQ's Instant Messaging software was not at the top of the charts? Or when "Want Me" by the L.A. band Red Delicious was not one of the top-five most popular songs at www.MP3.com?

Whether it's software, music, portals, books, CDs or bulletin boards, the Web has spawned a culture of popularity.

MORE COMPUTING INTELLIGENCE
	IDG.net home page
Industry Standard home page
Industry Standard email newsletters
Industry Standard daily Media Grok
Industry Standard financial news
Reviews & in-depth info at IDG.net
IDG.net's personal news page
Year 2000 World
Questions about computers? Let IDG.net's editors help you
Subscribe to IDG.net's free daily newsletter for computer industry cognoscenti
Search IDG.net in 12 languages
News Radio
	Fusion audio primers
	Computerworld Minute

ICQ is an undeniably great product. It isn't necessarily better than any of the other instant-messaging products, but it does a good enough job to maintain its lead. Of course, it has the most members, and critical mass breeds critical mass.

In fact, ICQ is one of the top-five most popular downloads on the Internet at this point. With more than 55 million registered users and 18 million active users, ICQ is one of the killer apps – right up there with browsers, media players, compression products and a couple of other utilities.

The question, though, is why? Why do some products get adopted and spread like wildfire over the Internet while others fail to take off at all? Why do some, like PointCast, take off only to fizzle out?

In the case of products that provide a utility – those that enhance the Web experience across the board – the explosive adoption rate is understandable. People learn, primarily from word of mouth, about a hot item and surf to download it. These utilities are typically free, which provides little barrier to adoption and increases adoption speed.

As long as the downloadable products continue to have a proprietary nature, they will continue to thrive. One reason for PointCast's failure is the result of its own success. The push metaphor was powerful but easy enough to replicate; there was nothing proprietary enough about PointCast to assure the continuous downloading and upgrading of its service.

This question of Internet popularity becomes more interesting when you think of products and services that are less utility-focused and more taste-oriented. You would expect products that are less utility-focused and more taste-oriented, such as songs and books, would not have the same type of mass-adoption characteristics.

In fact, cultural experiences on the Internet seem to have the same mass adoption as utility products do. Songs, books, sites and chat rooms seem to have a much longer shelf life on the Internet than they would have in the physical world.

I think the reason for this is due to the nature of the medium. The majority of surfers are still in discovery mode, so they are interested in what other surfers are doing and want to share the same experience. Thus, certain artists can have millions of fans in the digital world but remain unknown in the physical world.

What does this mean from an investment perspective? It indicates that, for the moment, the most popular on the Internet is the most popular simply because it is the most popular.

Whether you're talking about Web sites, downloads or bands, being at the top of the charts will likely cement the fact that these items will be at the top of the charts going forward, and for a much longer time than would be true in the physical world. As a result, companies that can drive traffic to and from sites, and hence clicks to and from sites, will play extremely important roles in terms of shaping the growth of the Internet.

It should come as no surprise that as the masses of site visitors expand and continue to flock from site to site, the underlying infrastructure necessary to support these massive movements of traffic will be invaluable.

Think back to last year when the Starr report was released online. Unpredictable spikes in traffic significantly impacted the quality of service offered by a number of sites that posted the document. Companies that provide infrastructure to address the unique nature of popularity on the Internet are extremely attractive investment opportunities.

Finally, just remember that popularity is not synonymous with quality.

Danny Rimer, an analyst with Hambrecht & Quist, maintains research coverage of ExciteAtHome, BroadVision, Concur, CNET, InfoSpace, Inktomi, Netscape, Pilot Network Services, USWeb and VeriSign.