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Report downplays threat of asteroid strike

Asteroid graphic July 10, 1997
Web posted at: 11:00 p.m. EDT (0300 GMT)

(CNN) -- Could an asteroid hit the Earth and wipe out a sizable chunk of civilization? Conventional scientific wisdom says "yes."

But a report published in the journal Science this week says the threat may be smaller than once thought.

New analysis indicates so-called Earth-crossing asteroids have a much shorter life span than previously believed -- perhaps as short as 10,000,000 years on average.

Animation of how asteroids travel through space and impact planets
video icon Small version: 961K/31 sec. QuickTime movie
video iconLarge version: 1.9MB/31 sec. QuickTime movie

The asteroids tend to wipe out by crashing into the Sun or Jupiter.

Scientists estimate 2,000 Earth-crossing asteroids exist; 200 have been identified. Astronomers estimate the chances an object 1 km or more in diameter will collide with Earth in the next century are 1 in 10,000.

 
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