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'And the survey says ...'
Holiday shopping polls don't always agree
December 17, 1996
Web posted at: 7:30 p.m.ATLANTA (CNN) -- What kinds of presents will you be buying this year? And how much will you spend? Surveys of holiday shopping trends might seem to be a good guide to the hot items and the right price -- but, as the old saying goes, let the buyer beware.
Consumers are buying everything this year, from little things like scarves and earrings to larger items like word processors and stereo systems.
And while some people are spending more money than ever, others say they are spending less.
According to analysts, companies survey shoppers long before the holiday season to figure out how much they're going to spend, and how to stock the shelves so there won't be a surplus of unsold items after the holidays.
A survey from the Consumer Electronics Manufacturers Association says -- surprise! -- consumer electronics like portable stereos, cordless phones, and VCRs are popular this year, but at least two other surveys say electronics are taking a back seat to clothing, jewelry, music, toys and books.
And some analysts agree.
"Particularly for apparel retailers, it will be a very strong Christmas," says Carl Steidtmann, a Price Waterhouse economist. "Jewelry I think will do quite well as well. I think consumer electronics, however, will have a very hard time."
A survey put out by MasterCard says people in the United States will spend about $444 each on gifts this year -- about $40 less than last year.
But a survey by American Express says we'll be spending about $1,000, or $300 more than last year.
How two surveys can have such different results depends on whom you ask.
"If you're conducting your survey in a mall, asking people what they're likely to spend for the holiday season, you're going to get much different answers than if you call a cross section of people at home," says Roger Tutterow, an economist at Kennesaw State University in Marietta, Georgia.
A number of factors can change the results of a survey, Tutterow says.
Analysts say the main reason companies report the results of their surveys is to get publicity for their products, and to sway consumer decisions. But economists like Steidtmann say consumers really don't pay much attention to survey results
"Most people look at their own personal finances ... in determining what their purchase patterns are gonna be during the holiday season," he said.
Tutterow says the key is to take consumer surveys with a grain of salt, while Steidtmann suggests moderation in all things, including holiday shopping.
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