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Japan is officially in recession after its economy retracted in the most recent quarter. The stagnation poses a serious problem for Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. He could stifle the country entirely, economists say, if he pushes ahead with his vaunted reform plans too quickly.


"It seems everything has weakened slightly. I'm a bit worried,"
-- Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa

"The recession is here,"
-- Jesper Koll, Chief Economist, Merrill Lynch

It's a far cry from 1989, when Japan briefly saw its economic output and its stock-market value surpass the United States. News of Japan's beleaguered banks, of punch-drunk investors dragging the yen and Nikkei lower, and of the nation’s declining trade surplus, off 60 percent, are just the latest in a long stream of negatives out of Tokyo.

Even the mighty Japanese electronics industry, once the foundation on which Japan became an economic monster, is reeling from a plunge in demand from the West.

Now, with China on the ascent, the question arises: How long can Japan remain the second-biggest economy in the world? Experts call for wholesale reform to the finance sector. Yet fear in a repeat of 1997 looms, then Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto's Big Bang reforms came too quickly and precipitated a disastrous economic slump.


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