Taiwan picks a president with China in mind

'Obviously they want to influence our election, but we should not let them have their way'

Opinion polls show that 80 percent of Taiwan's people do not want to reunify with China in the foreseeable future

By John Christensen
CNN Interactive

(CNN) -- In Taiwan, where the president attended an election rally in a Star Trek uniform and a candidate is selling plastic figurines of himself as Rambo and a punk rocker with green hair, this year's presidential election might appear to be a light-hearted affair.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

As Taiwan's people prepare to choose only their second popularly elected president -- and perhaps transfer Taiwan's leadership to a new party for the first time in 51 years -- the candidates have been subdued, their rhetoric mild and the tone tentative, even cautious.

The reason is China, 90 miles (140 kilometers) away across the Taiwan Strait.

When the Communists took control of China in 1949, the Nationalists under Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek fled to Taiwan, where they re-established the Republic of China as a government in exile and imposed martial law.

China has considered Taiwan a renegade province ever since and has threatened to use force to bring about reunification.

Four years ago, as Taiwan prepared for its first-ever direct presidential election, China rattled its tiny neighbor -- and brought U.S. warships to the scene -- by conducting missile tests in the Taiwan Strait.

Newspapers from February 21 report China's latest demands on Taiwan and reunification with the mainland

On February 21, 2000, less than a month before Taiwan's election on March 18, the Chinese struck again. This time they announced that foot-dragging on reunification had been added to the list of things -- international meddling or a declaration of independence are the others -- that would trigger an attack on Taiwan.

There are other issues in this year's election -- including corruption and campaign finance reform -- but the issue known as "cross-strait relations" is far and away the most important. And with a sizable contingent of China's military of 2.5 million men and women undergoing "training exercises" in southern China, the issue has special urgency.

The China effect

Lin Chong-pin, a spokesman for Taiwan's government, rebuked China for its latest threat, saying, "The Chinese Communists' continued denial of the existence of the Republic of China can only bring more trouble to cross-strait relations and deepen tension. This will not at all help to resolve the actual issue involved."

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"Obviously they want to influence our election," said former Taiwan Foreign Minister Jason Hu, now campaign manager for the Nationalist Party (also known as Kuomintang or KMT), "but we should not let them have their way."

But in a sense the Communists are having their way.

The three principal presidential contenders -- Vice President Lien Chan, the KMT's candidate, Democratic Progressive Party's candidate Chen Shui-bian and independent James Soong -- have played down whatever differences they might have with the Communists. And they have indicated their willingness to negotiate with China.

But of the five presidential candidates, only one, Li Ao, supports the "one country, two systems" China applies to Hong Kong and Macau, and Ao is projected to get less than 1 percent of the vote.

Polls say that as many as 80 percent of Taiwan's 22 million people do not want to reunify with China in the foreseeable future, and for obvious reasons.

While China has liberalized its economy and experimented with democracy at the local level, it is by no means a free-market democracy. And one Hong Kong human rights activist, Frank Lu, contended in the Christian Science Monitor that human rights and democracy have eroded in the former British colony since China took over in 1997.

'Beijing has to face reality'

Reunification has been a personal crusade of China President Jiang Zemin, who is said to welcome the imminent departure of Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui. Lee is retiring after 12 years in office.

It was Lee who appeared at a local election rally in 1999 in a Star Trek uniform and at another with live water buffaloes. And it was Lee who brought cross-strait relations to a boil by suggesting in July 1999 that there was a "special state-to-state" relationship between Taiwan and China.

Beijing media reviled Lee for his comment with typical hyperbole, calling him "a criminal for 10,000 years."

Lien, Lee's handpicked successor, is gruff, distant and stiff, and trails Soong and Chen in the opinion polls. Although he could be expected to continue Lee's policies, he has not repeated Lee's "state-to-state" remark and has suggested a "peace zone" in the Taiwan Strait. He has also recommended Taiwan expand its defense capabilities by developing long-range missiles.

"Beijing has to face the reality and work together to work out solutions," Lien said in mid-February. "We are simply calling attention to the reality of the two sides being governed separately over the past 50 years."

Tensions between China and Taiwan typically affect Taiwan's stock market

Chen's Democratic Progressive Party favors outright independence, but he too has shelved such talk apparently to placate the Communists -- who find him the most objectionable of the three -- and to soothe his largely middle-class following.

Despite the Rambo and punk rocker figurines bearing his likeness, Chen has been so conciliatory that he has even said he would include the "one China" policy in reunification talks.

Soong accused of embezzlement

Soong has suggested that Taiwan and China engage in a "quasi-international" relationship similar to the European union, but China is not interested.

Although he was born in China and has supported reunification in the long term, Soong also has recommended that Taiwan arm itself with submarines that could launch strikes at China's airports and harbors.

"We have to find a way forward," said Soong's spokesman, Raymnd Wu. "No one in Taiwan wants to fight for independence, but no one wants China's 'one country, two systems,' either."

Popular, charismatic and at one time an effective provincial governor, Soong has led the polls throughout much of the campaign. He has also been the focus of another issue: corruption.

A KMT campaign rally

When the KMT failed to make him its presidential candidate, Soong bolted the party and began campaigning as an independent. Stung by his "disloyalty," Lien and Lee have likened Soong to Adolf Hitler and Philippines dictator Ferdinand Marcos. They also accused him of embezzling $11.7 million in party funds.

Soong has denied the charges several times. He says the money came from political contributions and that he was "entrusted by President Lee to carry out party tasks," in the words of Soong's attorney.

Among the tasks, Soong says, was supporting the family of the late Chiang Ching-kuo -- Chiang Kai-shek's son and successor -- who ruled Taiwan when it was under martial law.

Soong has offered to repay the KMT more than $8 million, but the party has refused to accept the money.

After the charges were leveled in late 1999, Soong's popularity dipped significantly. Even so, the latest polls show he still enjoys a slight lead over Chen.

'Silly president'

Opponents of the KMT, meanwhile, have for years accused the party of using its money -- with an estimated $3.8 billion in assets it is said to be the richest in the world -- to influence local politics and businesses, even organized crime.

Another controversy involves the KMT's practice of forcing measures through the legislature as election day nears that put money in voters' pockets at the government's expense. Aside from the obvious electioneering aspect, several candidates question whether the government may be over-extending itself to finance such measures.

KMT officials have become sensitive to charges of corruption. Lien announced that the party would put its business interests in a trust. As the New York Times noted, however, many of the KMT's companies are running at a loss, and it could be a good business decision to turn over management of their interests to executives who are more competent.

"They retain ownership," a professor of economics told the Times, "and if the trusts are run by professional managers, they will generate even more cash.

Of the two candidates lowest in the polls -- Hsu Hsin-liang and Li Ao -- Li has been the more noteworthy, if only for his campaign style.

The crewcut Li has a thick northern Chinese accent and claims he is running for "silly president." A writer in his mid-60s who spent five years in prison for criticizing the Chiangs (father and son), Li is host of two popular cable TV talk shows, and his rare public appearances draw capacity crowds.

Excitable and fiery onstage, Li says his intention is to "brainwash everybody and strangle the other candidates."