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Pope's decline spurs thoughts of a successor

'To enter the conclave a pope is to exit a cardinal'

by John Christensen

(CNN) -- Injury, disease, a relentless seven-days-a-week schedule and old age have taken their toll on 80-year-old Pope John Paul II.

Although the Vatican won't confirm it, the pope's trembling left hand and shuffling walk are suggestive of Parkinson's disease. He also has been treated for cancer, an assassin's bullets, the removal of his appendix, a broken shoulder and a broken leg that led to hip replacement surgery.

And John Paul II has suffered from the after-effects of being struck twice by vehicles when he was young.

Despite indications that il papa is determined to continue at least through the year 2000, his frailty has encouraged speculation about his successor.

In theory, any practicing Roman Catholic man can be the pope. In reality, the pope has for centuries been chosen from within the Sacred College of Cardinals.

Father Thomas Reese, editor of the Catholic magazine America, says there are three factors that will be important in the selection of the next pope, and the first is age.

"The cardinals clearly won't choose a young man," Reese says. John Paul II has been the pope for more than 20 years -- double the average term for popes in this century -- and Reese says most cardinals agree that having another such pope is "not a good idea."

Polyglot pope a must

Second, the next pope must speak a number of languages. English, which has become the world language, is a must, as is Italian since the pope is also the bishop of Rome.

"Third, he's got to have a public presence," Reese says. "He can't be a media disaster, because so much of the media will be focused on him."

Reese speculates that John Paul II's successor will support the current pope's policies, but will also want to limit the power of the Vatican bureaucracy and decentralize decision-making in the church.

Of those considered papabili -- "popeable" in slang Italian -- the two most frequently mentioned are Cardinal Carlo Maria Martini, the archbishop of Milan, and Cardinal Francis Arinze, a Vatican official from Nigeria.

Martini has been identified by the media as "the favorite," which means it is unlikely he will become the pope. There is a saying in Rome: "To enter the conclave a pope is to exit a cardinal."

In a less superstitious vein, there are other reasons to doubt Martini's candidacy. Although considered brilliant, a renowned scholar and linguist fluent in 11 languages, Martini is outspoken, a Jesuit and a liberal inclined toward reform.

Any one of the three is enough to sink his candidacy.

Never a Jesuit pope

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Of the 122 electors in the College of Cardinals, 106 were appointed by John Paul II, a strong-willed -- some say autocratic -- arch-conservative with whom Martini has openly disagreed about such things as the ordination of women.

Also, there has never been a Jesuit pope. Indeed, the word "Jesuit" has at times been used as a pejorative suggesting a scheming politico and reflects a long-standing distrust of the church's most intellectual and free-thinking of orders.

Cardinal Arinze is a Vatican insider, well-established in intramural politics and close to the pope. He is clever, capable and possessed of a fine sense of humor.

That he is also black excites the notion that the church might strengthen its appeal in the Third World by choosing the first black pope since Gelasius I, who was pope between 492 and 496.

Arinze also has the distinction of being baptized 60 years ago by Father Cyprian, a Nigerian priest whom the pope beatified in May. Beatification is the first step in a process that will likely lead to Father Cyprian's sainthood.

Having a black pope who was baptized by a black saint leading the church into the third millennium would be a sensational stroke. But as scenarios go, it's probably too rich for the cardinals' palate.

As the Rev. Richard P. McBrien, a professor of theology at the University of Notre Dame, told the Boston Herald, "We're not going to have a black pope. ... The church won't make two bold moves in a row."

Another Italian pope?

John Paul II, a Pole, is the first non-Italian pope in 456 years, but reports suggest that the cardinals may be in the mood for another Italian. And with 34 of the 77 European cardinals being Italian, there is no shortage of them.

But just who that might be is far from certain. As Robert Moynihan, editor and publisher of the magazine "Inside the Vatican" puts it, "In the Vatican, those who talk don't know and those who know don't talk."