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Northern Ireland:  Path to Peace
The Agreement dot The Referendum dot The Troubles
Highlights Who's Who What Next? Analysis Timeline Paramilitaries

Now that it's Yes, the real task begins

Results graphic

(CNN) -- On May 22, the historic Good Friday peace agreement passed its first big test.

Voters on both sides of the Irish border voted resoundingly in favor of the deal, choosing dialogue over bullets -- thus, carving a bold path toward ending a bloody, 30-year-long Catholic-Protestant conflict.

It was the first time people across the island had voted together since an election in 1918 which produced a big majority for Irish nationalists and triggered independence for most of the island from London.

The "Yes" vote paves the way for the next step: In mid-June, Northern Ireland will hold elections for a new Belfast Assembly, from which a multi-party administration is to be drawn.

The parliament will probably be led by David Trimble's Ulster Unionist Party, but will be formed through proportional representation to prevent domination by the Protestant majority. A 12-member Cabinet will also be formed, and members must be dedicated to non-violence.

Many challenges

With the referendum over, analysts say, the real task begins -- that of replacing discord with harmony. And, that, observers stress, poses the real challenge.

Indeed, polling in the referendum indicates that Protestants were evenly split -- raising the question of whether those who voted "no" would try to scuttle the new Belfast Assembly before it can even get off the ground.

"Obviously everybody has doubts about each other still at this stage, and we have to use the agreement to build trust to improve understanding," said Mark Durkan, election director of the Social Democratic and Labor Party, which gets most of the Catholic vote in Northern Ireland.

The agreement leaves Northern Ireland under British rule so long as a majority of its people wish. But it also creates new mechanisms for cooperation across the border which has divided the island since 1920.

Previous Irish peace treaties
Treaty

1921 Anglo-Irish Treaty: The December 1921 treaty says the 26 southern counties will become an independent Irish Free State while the six northern counties will remain part of the United Kingdom. The boundary with Northern Ireland is later confirmed in 1925, and in 1949, the Free State becomes a Republic and leaves the British Commonwealth.

• 1973 Sunningdale Agreement: The name refers to the Sunningdale conference center in Buckinghamshire, England, where the treaty was signed on December 9. Delegates from both sides of the sectarian divide as well as the British and Irish governments agree on a power-sharing formula that sets up a Council of Ireland, which is to have a limited say on issues of joint concern between the north and south. But early in 1974, the Sunningdale Agreement collapses due to fierce opposition and strikes called by hard-line unionists.

1985 Anglo-Irish Agreement: The United Kingdom and the Irish government sign the Anglo Irish Agreement -- also known as the Hillsborough Agreement -- on November 15. The agreement sets up an Intergovernmental Conference (with a joint Anglo-Irish Secretariat near Belfast) to provide a framework for regular meetings. The agreement thus gives the Irish Republic a consultative role in the British province. Hard-line unionists firmly oppose the agreement as a sellout by London, and the IRA continues its campaign for a reunified all-Ireland state. However, present-day political observers now characterize the 1985 agreement as a key political marker in Northern Ireland's road to peace.

"The political architecture is sophisticated," says Prof. Brendan O'Leary of the London School of Economics. "It is a model for management of differences rather than attempt to produce false homogeneity. "

North-South and East-West

The accord calls for the establishment of a North-South Council of Ministers, where lawmakers from Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic will work together on issues such as transportation links and agriculture.

A largely symbolic East-West Council will bring together lawmakers from all British Isles parliaments for consultation, although the body will have no power.

Voters, who favored the deal in the Irish Republic, also made an extraordinary gesture to the north's pro-British Protestants: a constitutional amendment dropping the Republic's territorial claim on the six counties of Northern Ireland.

Resolving long-standing issues

While the accord creates so many new institutions, the hardest steps to take may be those that address the violence of the past.

The paramilitary groups that planned terror attacks are still armed. The agreement calls for all sides to give up their weapons within two years, beginning in June.

But the wording is deliberately vague. The issue could create an early crisis because Sinn Fein, the Irish Republican Army's political wing, may become part of the new government's Cabinet.

"Gerry Adams will be in the government in some shape or form." says Paul Bew, professor of Irish politics at Queens University, "People find that very offensive indeed, because 3,000 people were killed in this conflict, and most were killed by the IRA. A big constituency believe they should be put in jail, not into government."

Unionists might try to prevent members of Sinn Fein from taking their seats in the new parliament. But O'Leary says if the Unionists feel safe, the issue will probably fade once the parliament is seated.

Prisoners & Police

Significant peace treaties of the century
1972 Shimla agreement
1993 Oslo peace accord
1994 Angola's Lusaka accord
1995 Dayton peace agreement
1996 Guatemala peace accord

The terror campaigns of the last three decades have landed hundreds of members of paramilitary groups in prison. The accord calls for the accelerated release of those prisoners belonging to groups maintaining the cease-fire, depending on the severity of their crimes. The victims of the terror attacks that have killed and maimed more than 2,000 unarmed civilians are outraged that convicted murderers could go free.

Catholics in Northern Ireland distrust the primarily Protestant Royal Ulster Constabulary, the police they accuse of abuse and repression. But Loyalists see the RUC as a heroic bulwark against IRA terror. The accord calls for an independent commission to look at reforming the police force. Former Hong Kong governor Chris Patten, a Catholic, has agreed to chair the commission, and the major parties from both sides have responded favorably.

The commission may be one step toward redressing decades and even centuries of grievance, a process that goes far beyond the scope of the agreement.

ALSO:
Who are Northern Ireland's Political Parties?

"I believe in a healing process beyond diplomatic deals," says Joseph Montville of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "You have to go through the past and take inventory and acknowledge injustice."

Montville says Blair's appointment of a commission to look into the Bloody Sunday massacre in 1972 is one step in that process, as is his acknowledgment of Britain's failure to help the Irish during the potato famine 150 years ago. And individuals are engaged in citizen diplomacy designed to break down the literal and figurative walls that still divide Northern Ireland.


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