Monday, January 22, 2007
Oscar nominations's Tom Charity has posted his predictions for tomorrow's Oscar nominations. He's high on "Dreamgirls," thinks a Mark Wahlberg "Departed" nomination is chancy and can't imagine Guillermo Del Toro picking up a best director nomination. (Not that he agrees with all that -- the piece is his opinion on what the Academy will pick, not his own nominations.)

How about you, kind reader? What did Tom miss? Where is the Academy going to blow it? Take a moment and submit your own opinions.
Best Movie nominations will be as follows:
"The Departed"
"The Queen"
"United 93"
I don't think there are any front runners - they are all terrific movies and they would all deserve to win.
Rinko Kinkuchi is a shoo-in for a Supporting nomination for "Babel". I don't see how at all you can consider her "has no chance" when she's been on every critic's list.

"Notes on a Scandal" was fantastic. If it were up to me, it would get a nomination for Best Picture, and Judi Dench and Cate Blanchett would win, instead of being also-rans to Helen Mirren and Jennifer Hudson.
I think Babel should win for best picture, Leonardo deserves best actor either in lead or supporting role, Eddie Murphy should be nominated for supporting actor, Jennifer Hudson should win best Supporting Actress, and Helen Mirren should win best actress. In my opinion, while Departed was a good action movie, Baabel was a lot better. Brad Pitt, Alan Arkin, Judy Dench, Kirsten Dunst should be nominated, while Alan Arkin is the only one deserving to win. Dreamgirls was a good movie, but of no significance, it was pleasant to watch, however. Children of Men was also a very good movie with outstanding cinematography and should be nominated for the best film award.
The Proposition should get a heap of rewards. Unfortunately, it came out too early in the year and has already been forgotten.
If BOTH Children of Men and Pan's Labyrinth are not nominated, I am never watching the Oscars again. At the very least I am not taking them seriously. I will only watch for the pretty costumes on those plastic people.
I agree with Tom Charlty's comments except for one: Children of Men was one the most boring movies I have ever seen. It was all I could do to get through it. The acting was good, but the movie was yawn-producing. It should be added to the worst movies of the year list.
I hope Hollywood "forgives" Ben Afflec for whatever he's done in the past (bad movies, Jennifer Lopez) and give him the nomination.
I like Forrest Whitaker, but thought Leonardo DiCaprio was phenomenal in Blood Diamond. I wish it could be Leo's year.
I recently saw Dreamgirls. The acting was not really what it was cracked up to be. Jen Hudson was a great singer but her acting showed that she was clearly a virgin. Perhaps she will be given a better opportunity if she should do a revival of Dreamgirls on Brodway. The editing was fantastic, the connection from one era to the next was solid. The choreography was way too modern and it makes me wonder if this was Michael Bennetts orginal choreography. I don't see this as a best picture, but hey Chicago won a couple of years ago so who knows?
United 93 was, hands down, the best picture of the year. But sadly, I have no doubt it will be overlooked!
Keke Palmer gave a great performance in Akeelah and the Bee. Daniel Craig gave a miraculous performance in Casino Royale. Casino Roayle should be nominated for Best Picture.
Everyone has got to be kidding about DREAMGIRLS. I really do think everyone is. It's just a long, drawn-out joke that's just not funny anymore. This is reality:

DREAMGIRLS is a decent - that's right, average - musical. Didn't we learn our lesson with CHICAGO? These films are a good first viewing, with some emotion, and some originality, but upon watching them for the second, third, or fourth time, they truly reveal what they are - a decent musical.

Everyone gets caught up with certain stars, or certain success stories (Jennifer Hudson). But, we're judging history, so let's not let history prove us wrong. Does anyone really think a film like THE DEPARTED won't get even better over time? Do people think that when looking at Alejandro Gonz�lez I��rritu's trilogy of three story masterpieces in ten years they won't be even more brilliant? The fact is that films like BABEL and THE DEPARTED and LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE are films that will last forever. They will become better and better with every viewing. We'll find all the hidden brilliance every time we see them.

And, movies like DREAMGIRLS will be forgotten when the glitter is cleaned up. I'll admit, Eddie Murphy was great, but isn't he always? He's had a career of masterpiece performances. But, is he the best supporting actor this year? No chance. Is Jennifer Hudson the best supporting actress this year? No way. How? We're comparing these performances to actors that turned in gems, whereas the DREAMFIRLS cast fluttered their hands and wore sparkling outfits.

I just think that everyone (voters) get caught in a whirlwind and they don't think for themselves. If you want a great musical, look at Bollywood. Their average musical is better than DREAMGIRLS. But, wait, Hollywood hasn't jumped on the bandwagon yet. That will happen in a few years, probably after Mira Nair directs Johnny Depp in SHANTARAM and we're spotlighting her career as a director, and everyone gets excited about her earlier work. Then, some American hack/fan of Bollywood will make a rip-off, win the Oscar, and a year after, we'll forget about it.

All I'm asking is to reward the filmmakers and films that are the best. Not the most popular at the time. And, reward the prformers for their performance, not their story. Vote for the best films, the films we will look back on and put in the top 100, top 200, top 500 films of all-time. Don't vote for the flavor of the month.
Babel should win Best Picture and agree that Tom didnt do his homework. Rinko Kikuchi should definitly be nominated for Best Supporting Actress.
I think Dreamgirls should/will take it.
Best Picture:
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
The Departed

Best Director:
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu ("Babel")
Bill Condon ("Dreamgirls")
Martin Scorsese ("The Departed")
Clint Eastwood ("Letters From Iwo Jima")
Stephen Frears ("The Queen")

Best Actor:
Peter O'Toole ("Venus")
Will Smith ("The Pursuit of Happyness")
Forest Whitaker ("The Last King of Scotland")
Sacha Baron Cohen ("Borat")
Leonardo DiCaprio ("The Departed")

Best Actress:
Helen Mirren ("The Queen")
Meryl Streep ("The Devil Wears Prada")
Judi Dench ("Notes on a Scandal")
Penelope Cruz ("Volver")
Kate Winslet ("Little Children")

Best Supporting Actor:
Eddie Murphy ("Dreamgirls")
Jack Nicholson ("The Departed")
Brad Pitt ("Babel")
Michael Sheen ("The Queen")
Ben Affleck ("Hollywoodland")

Best Supporting Actress:
Cate Blanchett ("Notes on a Scandal") Jennifer Hudson ("Dreamgirls")
Toni Collette ("Little Miss Sunshine")
Rinko Kikuchi ("Babel")
Emily Blunt ("The Devil Wears Prada")
I seriously believe that Pan's Labyrinth will jump from foreign film into the best picture race. It was definitely one of the best pictures of the year, and it has a lot of growing buzz. It has a lot of good things going for it, and I think it will be highly represented come nomination time.
If the Japanese deaf girl in Babel doesn't WIN Best Supporting Actress, there's no god in heaven. She's that good!
He you all forgotten "Bobby" and it's writer/director Emillio Esteves?
Best Actor - Forrest Whittaker
Best Actress - Helen Mirren
Best Supporting Male - The Pedophile from Little Children
Best Supporting Female - Jennifer Hudson
Best Director - Martin Scorcese
Best Movie - The Departed
Best Cinematography - Dreamgirls
Best Screenplay - Little Children
Best Foreign Film - Pans Labyrinth
I'm sure many of my picks won't even be nominated, but nonetheless, here are my predictions...

Best Picture:

The Departed
The Queen
United 93
Letters From Iwo Jima

My pick: Little Children
My prediction: Letters From Iwo Jima

For Best Actor:

Peter O'Toole (Venus)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Departed)
Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson)
Ken Watanabe (Letters from Iwo Jima)
Forest Whitaker (Last King of Scotland)

My pick: Ryan Gosling
My prediction: Peter O'Toole

For Best Actress:

Helen Mirren (The Queen)
Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal)
Kate Winslet (Little Children)
Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada)
Penelope Cruz (Volver)

My pick: Kate Winslet
My prediction: Helen Mirren

Best Director:

Clint Eastwood (Letters From Iwo Jima)
Martin Scorsese (The Departed)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Babel)
Stephen Frears (The Queen)
Paul Greengrass (United 93)

My pick: Martin Scorsese
My prediction: Clint Eastwood

Best Original Screenplay:

Michael Arndt (Little Miss Sunshine)
Peter Morgan (The Queen)
Guillermo Arriaga (Babel)
Guillermo del Toro (Pan's Labyrinth)
Pedro Almodovar (Volver)

My Pick: Jeff Lipsky (Flannel Pajamas)
My prediction: Peter Morgan (The Queen)

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Bill Condon (Dreamgirls)
Steve Conrad (The Pursuit of Happyness)
Todd Field & Tom Perrotta (Little Children)
Patrick Marber (Notes on a Scandal)
William Monahan (The Departed)

My pick: Todd Field & Tom Perrotta
My prediction: Todd Field & Tom Perrotta
I agree with Bernardo. Dreamgirls was an OK movie, but there was nothing spectacular about it and its hype will fade sooner than you think. However, I have a bias towards musicals because due to their nature the acting always seems so fake and cheesy that I never think they're good as a movie. But even putting that aside, the only thing about the movie that stood out was the costumes. Nobody is going to remember this movie and it will suffer the same fate as Chicago and Moulin Rouge. The Oscars should be about quality, and in the past couple years they haven't given awards to the movies that possess any quality (example: Crash).
The Departed should win everything it gets nominated for, and I hope Sacha Baron Cohen wins best actor because anyone who can fool hundreds of people without ever breaking character has some serious talent.
There's one dark horse that has been overlooked by pretty much every pundit and that's Daniel Craig for Casino Royale. His BAFTA nomination caught a lot of people by surprise -- he might be the first actor to be so nominated for a James Bond film. I personally don't expect to see it happen, but I'll cheer if Daniel Craig ends up being a wild card on Tuesday morning.
Hopefully NOT "Dreamgirls"!!! What a waste of money that was! If I want to see Beyonce preen and primp I'll just watch the Entertainment news and read the magazines. And, Jennifer Hudson - forget it!! There is a reason she was a RUNNER-UP on American Idol.
I saw several movies this year and I'm usually pretty good at making Oscar predictions. Frankly, whoever wins the SAG, will also win the Oscar. For my money, Dreamgirls is as perfect a movie as Chicago and Jennifer Hudson as well as Eddie Murphy are deserving of Oscars and will be the victors on Oscar night. Dreamgirls will be nominated for Best Picture, but it won't win. That Oscar will likely go to Babel or The Queen. Forrest Whitaker will take home the Oscar for Best Actor and Helen Mirren will win for Best Actress. These are just my opinions, but please note that last year, I was one of few that said that Crash would win for Best Picture (and deservedly so).
In my opinion, I thought the movie "The Da Vinci Code" was great, along with Tom Hanks' performance. How come it is not getting any recognition?
Personal opinion here:

Best Picture:
The Queen
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Departed

Best Actor:
Peter O'Toole
Forest Whitaker
Leonardo DiCaprio
Ken Watanabe
Will Smith

Best Actress:
Helen Mirren
Judi Dench
Kite Winslet
Laura Dern
Naomi Watts

Best Director:
Martin Scorsese
Clint Eastwood
Robert Altma
Guillermo Del Toro
Stephen Frears

I do not see Dreamgirls getting as many nominations as folks seem to think. I also think the Academy had their minds made up long before the critic awards and the Golden Globs were announced, so I expect that there will be some serious differences in the Best Director and Best Actress categories.

Oh, and since there was no mention of it, Pan's Labyrinth will take Best Foreign Film.
I agree with Ali that if Pan's Labyrinth isn't nominated I will be tempted to boycott the Oscars. IMHO, either Pan's Labyrinth or Babel deserve Best Picture and Gullermo del Toro deserves Best Director and Best Original Screnplay for Pan's Labyrinth which also deserves the awards for costumes, makeup and cinematography.
I think Tom Charity really fails as a prognosticator. In recent years, the SAG nominations have proven very good indicators of Oscar Nominations. Why he considers Rinko Kikuchi without a chance is beyond me. I also have to say Jackie Earle Haley is much more of a sure thing than Brad Pitt.
I think best movie nominatons will be:

"The Departed"
"Little Miss Sunshine"
"Letters from Iwo Jima"

They were all wonderfully performed.
The Dream Girls movie is the movie of all times. When I saw this movie I knew it had to minister to a lot of young women. Those who spend their lifes dreaming and thats all they do is dream, because they have made mistakes and they feel that life is all over. Dream Girls says not soooooo
"The Departed"? Pfft. You people should watch the REAL movie that "The Departed" was based off--"Infernal Affairs." Why Americans feel like they have to remake a perfectly good Hong Kong movie is beyond me.
Best Picture:
the departed
the queen
little children
little miss sunshine
(my pick: the departed)

Best director:
alejandro innaritu (the departed)
bill condon (dreamgirls)
Martin Scorsese (the departed)
Steven Frears (the queen)
Clint eastwood (letters from iwo jima)
(my pick: scorsese)

Best Actor:
leonardo di caprio ( Blood Diamond)
will smith (pursuit of happiness)
Forest Whittaker (last king of scotland)
Daniel Craig (Casino Royale)
(my pick: leonardo)

Best Actress:
Kate winslett (little children)
Helen Mirren (the Queen)
Meryl Streep (the devil wears Prada)
Judy Dench (Notes on a Scandal)
Penelope Cruz (volver)
Beyonce (Dream Girls)
(my pick: Kate Winslett)

Best Supporting Male Actor:
Eddie Murphy ("Dreamgirls")
Jack Nicholson ("The Departed")
Brad Pitt ("Babel")
Michael Sheen ("The Queen")
Mark Wahlberg (the departed)
(my pick: Jack Nicholson)

Best supporting Actress:

Cate Blanchett ("Notes on a Scandal") Jennifer Hudson ("Dreamgirls")
Toni Collette ("Little Miss Sunshine")
Rinko Kikuchi ("Babel")
Emily Blunt ("The Devil Wears Prada")
(my pick: Cate Blanchett)
Dreamgirls is the movie to beat as well as Jennifer Hudson and Eddie Murphy. I've seen all the movies that are thought to be nominated and DG beats them all, hands down.
I think Dakota Fanning is a brave girl for doing the work that she's done. Its horrible to think of a 12 year old girl being rapped, but it often happens in this sometimes sick world. Art can depict life. It shocks the senses and makes you think. However horrible the subject matter, its an important message.
Occasional musings and gab about the world of entertainment.
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