Friday, February 02, 2007
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Compiled by Stephen Bach CNN Washington Bureau Making news today... An administration official and government sources familiar with the estimate provided details about the estimate on Friday to CNN. The estimate also projects events over Iraq over the next 18 months. A senior administration official said President Bush was briefed on the NIE Thursday by John Negroponte, the outgoing director of national intelligence. There is a 90-page classified version of the estimate, and two pages with key judgments are declassified, the government sources said. It is titled "Prospects for Iraq's Stability: A Challenging Road Ahead." "Crist proposed spending $32.5 million to replace paperless touch-screen voting machines with optical scanners that read paper ballots." Voting experts say the move, "coupled with new federal voting legislation expected to pass this year, could be the death knell for the paperless electronic touch-screen machines," the New York Times reports. President's Schedule: Also on the Political Radar: Speakers in order of appearance: Senate Majority Leader Senator Harry Reid (NV) DNC Chairman Howard Dean Senator Christopher Dodd (CT) Senator Barack Obama (IL) General Wesley Clark Senator John Edwards (NC) Representative Dennis Kucinich (OH-10) Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton (NY) ================================================================= Political Hot Topics (Today's top political stories from news organizations across the country) "INCREASINGLY PERILOUS... STRONG POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER DETERIORIATION": A long-awaited National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq, presented to President Bush by the intelligence community yesterday, outlines an increasingly perilous situation in which the United States has little control and there is a strong possibility of further deterioration, according to sources familiar with the document. In a discussion of whether Iraq has reached a state of civil war, the 90-page classified NIE comes to no conclusion and holds out prospects of improvement. But it couches glimmers of optimism in deep uncertainty about whether the Iraqi leaders will be able to transcend sectarian interests and fight against extremists, establish effective national institutions and end rampant corruption. Washington Post: Iraq at Risk of Further Strife, Intelligence Report Warns DNI PICK McCONNELL SAYS HE'LL "SPEAK TRUTH TO POWER": President Bush's pick for director of national intelligence told senators Thursday that he'll blow the whistle on the president or any other official who tries to skew intelligence reports for political purposes. "There have been a number of occasions in my career when I had to not be popular but to speak truth to power," J. Michael McConnell told the Senate Intelligence Committee at a hearing on his nomination. "I've lived it, I've learned it, I believe it and I can only tell you that's what I'll do," he said. McConnell's comments came as committee Democrats, including Ron Wyden of Oregon and Russ Feingold of Wisconsin, repeated now-familiar charges that the Bush administration had "cherry picked" intelligence about threats posed by Iraq in 2003. USA Today: Intelligence pick says he'd fight manipulation CASEY GETS "UNUSUALLY HARSH RECEPTION" IN SENATE HEARING: Army Gen. George W. Casey Jr., the Bush administration's nominee to be the Army chief of staff, got an unusually harsh reception yesterday from some members of the Senate Armed Services Committee for his performance as the top U.S. commander in Iraq over the past 30 months, but he still appears likely to be confirmed to lead the Army. "You'll need to explain why your assessment of the situation in Iraq has differed so radically from that of most observers and why your predictions of future success have been so unrealistically rosy," said Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.)... It is rare for a nomination for a military service chief to be even mildly controversial, but Casey is leaving a job as top U.S. commander in Iraq just as Congress is debating the war effort more intensely than it has since before the invasion of the country in March 2003. Washington Post: Senators Challenge Gen. Casey On Iraq War "SURGE" TROOP REQUIREMENTS "FAR LARGER THAN PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED": President Bush's plan to send 21,500 more combat troops to Iraq might require as many as 28,000 additional troops to provide critical support during the deployment, making the "surge" in US military forces far larger than previously predicted, a government assessment concluded yesterday. The assessment from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said the addition of almost 50,000 more troops could cost up to $27 billion to sustain over the next year -- depending on the size of the force and duration of the deployment. That would be more than three times the largest estimate of the troop expansion's cost provided by the Bush administration. Boston Globe: Support needs could double 'surge' forces BIDEN, HAGEL GET BEHIND SURGE COMPROMISE: A revised Senate resolution criticizing President Bush's troop buildup in Iraq drew new support Thursday as two authors of a sterner resolution of disapproval said they would accept the compromise, fashioned by Senator John W. Warner. Senators Joseph R. Biden Jr., Democrat of Delaware, and Chuck Hagel, Republican of Nebraska, said they would back Mr. Warner's alternative, which declares that "the Senate disagrees with the 'plan' to augment our forces by 21,500," calls on the president to consider other alternatives and urges him to limit the American role in countering sectarian violence. "The bottom line of our resolutions is the same: Mr. President, don't send more Americans into the middle of civil war," said Mr. Biden. New York Times: Compromise Senate Measure Rebuffing Bush's Iraq Buildup Gathers Support SEVERAL SENATE DEMS NOT ON BOARD: Senate Democratic leaders who decided to back a Republican resolution against President Bush's Iraq war plan in hopes of winning broad bipartisan support ran into stiff resistance yesterday from an unexpected quarter -- fellow Democrats... Two Democratic senators, Christopher J. Dodd (Conn.) and Russell Feingold (Wis.), came out forcefully against the compromise, saying the newly worded resolution goes too far toward GOP positions. Washington Post: Senate Democrats Split on Measure Opposing Bush GLOBAL WARMING "A RUNAWAY TRAIN," U.N. REPORT SAYS: In the strongest language it has ever used, a United Nations panel says global warming is "very likely" caused by human activities and has become a runaway train that cannot be stopped. The warming of Earth and increases in sea levels "would continue for centuries... even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilized," according to a 20-page summary of the report that was leaked to wire services. The summary of the fourth report by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, was scheduled for release this morning in Paris. But scientists involved in the final editing process have been leaking bits and pieces from it all week, culminating in the leaking of the full report eight hours before its release. Los Angeles Times: U.N. says there's no stopping global warming RNC'S MARTINEZ SAYS HIS IMMIGRATION VIEWS "ARE NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD": Sen. Mel Martinez of Florida, the Republican National Committee's new general chairman, wants Congress to pass an immigration bill this year that will include a guest-worker program with "earned citizenship" requirements for illegal aliens. Mr. Martinez, whose election encountered sharp opposition from some RNC members who think his support for giving illegal aliens a path to citizenship is a thinly veiled form of amnesty, said, "I don't support deporting these people because I don't believe that's a realistic approach." In an interview with The Washington Times, his first since taking the helm of the RNC, he acknowledged the opposition to his election and his support for the Kennedy-McCain bill that called for a multistep process of earned amnesty for all but the most recent illegals. But he said, "My views on immigration are not well understood." Washington Times: New RNC chief backs bill with guest-worker plan ROBERTS WANTS "MORE PRIVATE AND LESS DIVISIVE" SCOTUS: Chief Justice John Roberts Jr. brought his increasingly public campaign for a more private and less divisive Supreme Court to Chicago on Thursday and laid out a vision that may shape his tenure. In his first visit to the Midwest since taking the helm at the court in September 2005, Roberts, who grew up in Indiana, told the Northwestern University School of Law, "The court functions most effectively as a judicial institution saying what the law is when it can deliver one clear and focused opinion of the court." While many have predicted the Roberts court has the potential to be a conservative version of the liberal Warren court, Roberts has so far laid out a careful emphasis on consensus and caution. Chicago Tribune: Chief justice seeks fewer dissents in high court decisions FL'S CRIST CALLS FOR PAPER TRAIL: Gov. Charlie Crist wants a paper trail for all Florida votes in time for the 2008 presidential election. Appearing in west Delray Beach today with U.S. Rep. Robert Wexler and a bipartisan array of politicians, Crist proposed spending $32.5 million to replace paperless touch-screen voting machines with optical scanners that read paper ballots. Some touch screens would remain for early voting and disabled voters, but Crist wants the state to pay to have those machines outfitted with printers. "You should, when you go to vote, be able to have a record of it," Crist told a crowd of about 400 at a gathering of the nonpartisan Voters Coalition of Palm Beach County. Palm Beach Post: Gov. Crist wants paper trail in time for 2008 presidential vote THE "DEATH KNELL" FOR PAPERLESS E-VOTING? Voting experts said Florida's move, coupled with new federal voting legislation expected to pass this year, could be the death knell for the paperless electronic touch-screen machines. If as expected the Florida Legislature approves the $32.5 million cost of the change, it would be the nation's biggest repudiation yet of touch-screen voting, which was widely embraced after the 2000 recount as a state-of-the-art means of restoring confidence that every vote would count. New York Times: Florida Shifting to Voting System With Paper Trail WILL SAN FRANCISCO FORGIVE THE MAYOR? With the startling admission -- and public apology -- regarding an affair with his campaign manager's wife, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom set off on Thursday what one Democratic strategist described as a mushroom cloud over his promising political career. Already, politicians and consultants are assessing the fallout: Has the talented Democratic rising star irrevocably damaged his chances for re-election -- and prospects for state or national office? And has he also wounded his party by handing Republicans juicy evidence of "San Francisco values" that are outside the mainstream? San Francisco Chronicle: Sex scandal a serious obstacle to mayor's hopes for higher office FEC VOWS TO "POLICE" 527S: The Federal Election Commission said yesterday that it will police "527" groups, political organizations that largely operated outside the new campaign finance limits during the 2004 presidential election, by looking at how the groups word their appeals for contributions, how they describe themselves, and how they spend their money. If the groups make clear that they are advocating for or against a specific candidate, the FEC would regulate them. "We're providing clear guidance," said FEC Chairman Robert D. Lenhard. "This makes it clear that the existing rules will be enforced." The FEC filed the 44-page explanation of its approach in U.S. District Court yesterday in response to a lawsuit challenging the agency's effectiveness in regulating the independent groups. Washington Post: FEC to Police '527' Groups' Campaign Activities DCCC, DSCC, DNC DEBT NEARS $20 MILLION: Despite the big win Democrats enjoyed in November, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is entering the 2008 election cycle with $9.3 million in debt being carried over from 2006, according to year-end campaign disclosure reports filed late Wednesday. An additional $6.6 million in debt can be attributed to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and $4 million from the Democratic National Committee, leaving the party with $19.9 million to pay going into a critical cycle. Republicans are also facing a tough challenge with $16.2 million bill, most of which comes from the National Republican Congressional Committee's $14.4 million in debt. The National Republican Senatorial Committee is $1.3 million in debt and the Republican National Committee has $500,000 in debt. The Politico: Democrats Enter 2008 With Nearly $20 Million in Debt "SIMMERING AMBIVALENCE" AMONG BLACK VOTERS ABOUT OBAMA: [W]hy are some black voters so uneasy about Senator Barack Obama? The black author and essayist Debra J. Dickerson recently declared that "Obama isn't black" in an American racial context. Some polls suggest that Mr. Obama trails one of his rivals for the Democratic nomination, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, in the battle for African-American support. And at the Shepherd Park Barber Shop [in Washington], where the hair clippers hummed and the television blared, Calvin Lanier summed up the simmering ambivalence. Mr. Lanier pointed to Mr. Obama's heritage - he is the American-born son of a black father from Kenya and a white mother from Kansas - and the fact that he did not embody the experiences of most African-Americans whose ancestors endured slavery, segregation and the bitter struggle for civil rights. New York Times: So Far, Obama Can't Take Black Vote for Granted SHARPTON SAYS BIDEN'S "CLEAN" REMARK "MIGHT BE A STEP PAST" MACACA: Civil rights activist Al Sharpton on Thursday took Sen. Joe Biden to task for calling Democratic rival Sen. Barack Obama "articulate" and "clean," questioning how the description reflects on other blacks. Biden, still trying to deal with the fallout from his remarks, spoke by telephone on Sharpton's radio show... Sharpton told Biden: "A lot of people took it from you that because (Obama) is Harvard-trained, that people don't see someone as good and clean unless they are less connected to the struggle of the African-American community." Sharpton also compared the gaffe to former Virginia Sen. George Allen's use of a racial slur against an Indian-American man last summer - a controversy that was widely believed to have cost Allen re-election. "George Allen got 'macaca' - this might be a step past that," Sharpton warned. AP via Yahoo! News: Sharpton takes Biden to task on remarks FORGET PIONEERS' PALTRY $100K - CLINTON WANTS DONORS TO HIT THE $1M MARK: Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is establishing record-setting goals for presidential campaign fund-raising, her advisers say, asking donors to raise at least $1 million for the honor of being in her top echelon of supporters. That million-dollar benchmark is 10 times the amount that President Bush's "Pioneers" were expected to raise in his 2000 race; at that time, the Pioneers' $100,000 goal was considered sizable. Clinton advisers said the new fund-raising levels, laid out in meetings of finance team members this week, would help achieve their goal of raising $75 million in 2007. At least $15 million is expected from New York, Mrs. Clinton's home base, the advisers said. New York Times: Clinton Setting a $1 Million Goal for Donors HILLARY HAS $11 MILLION LEFT OVER FROM '06 SENATE BID: Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton ended 2006 with $11 million in her Senate account, money she can transfer to the presidential bid she began in January. Clinton won her second term as New York senator in November and announced on Jan. 20 that she would pursue the presidency, creating an exploratory committee that allows her to raise money for a White House bid. The $11 million in her Senate account gives her a clear advantage over her Democratic rivals. Illinois Sen. Barack Obama had about $500,000 in his account, Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut had some $5 million that he could transfer and Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware had about $3 million. AP via Yahoo! News: Clinton's $11 million advantage GIULIANI WILL BE FORCED TO SHARE SPOTLIGHT WITH McCAIN: The New York GOP chairman has lined up Arizona Sen. John McCain to star at a major party fund-raiser alongside presidential-primary rival Rudy Giuliani, a move some see as a diss of the former mayor in his home state. Some political watchers and supporters of Giuliani, who sits with McCain atop most polls of Republicans, saw it as a strange move, since it gives McCain a platform and forces Giuliani to share the spotlight with his main primary challenger on his home turf. "It's a slight," said one Giuliani supporter, who noted that the former mayor's ties to the state party are not historically deep. New York Post: McCain to Crash Rudy's Manhattan Party HUNTER WANTS TO BE "THE CONSERVATIVE'S CONSERVATIVE": Rep. Duncan Hunter sees his opening in the race for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination as the conservative's conservative. "I believe strongly in this nation that we can have a new American sunrise of opportunity, faith and freedom," he says. "I think this is a time for the type of leadership I can offer." Hunter, 58, is a veteran congressman from eastern San Diego County who chaired the House Armed Services Committee for the last four of the dozen years that Republicans controlled the House of Representatives. That job made him well-known to Capitol insiders and a favorite of defense contractors, who found in him a staunch supporter of the Pentagon and of high-tech weapons systems. USA Today: Hunter out to capture White House A FAN OF THE FOOTBALL CLICHE: U.S. Representative Heath Shuler says it's time for the Iraqis to "get off the sidelines." Success in politics, he says, is about "teamwork" and "having the right playbook." Shuler may be forgiven for sounding more like a football player than a member of Congress. A dozen years ago, the North Carolina Democrat seemed more likely destined to throw passes in this Sunday's Super Bowl than to be at work passing legislation. But while his career as quarterback of the Washington Redskins proved disappointing, it's paying off politically. "I talk those sports analogies," Shuler says. "And believe it or not, people relate to it." Bloomberg: Shuler, an NFL Bust, Finds Football Talk Scores With Voters |
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