The battle for the GOP nomination -- Key turning points

By Jane Caplan and Alan Silverleib/CNN

On March 2, 1999, Texas Gov. George W. Bush effectively jumped into the presidential race by announcing that he would form an exploratory committee. On March 9, 2000, the nomination battle ended when the last serious challenger, Arizona Senator John McCain, suspended his campaign.

From the beginning to the end of this yearlong nomination campaign, Bush was the clear front-runner. He continuously held a huge advantage in fund-raising, organizational support, and popular support as reflected in nationwide polls.

Nevertheless, the Bush camp faced and overcame many challenges on the road to victory. Following are the key turning points in the GOP contest:

Mid-1997 -- Bush begins to emerge: Polls of Republicans nationwide consistently began to show Bush at the top of any hypothetical GOP primary field that did not include Colin Powell, although Bush's support was only in the 18 percent to 20 percent range.

November 3, 1998 -- Bush wins re-election in Texas; quickly seen as presidential front-runner: Bush's landslide re-election victory (68 percent to 31 percent over Democrat Garry Mauro) almost immediately positioned him as the front-runner for the presidential nomination. Party insiders saw Bush as the GOP's strongest challenger to Vice President Al Gore. At the same time, Bush's name recognition, based on his father, instantly doubled his lead in the polls.

Early to mid-1999 -- the GOP field coalesces: Twelve candidates ran for the GOP nomination at one point or another in 1999: former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander; conservative activist Gary Bauer; political commentator Pat Buchanan; Bush; former Cabinet secretary Elizabeth Dole; businessman Steve Forbes; Utah Senator Orrin Hatch; Ohio Rep. John Kasich; radio talk show host Alan Keyes; McCain; former Vice President Dan Quayle; and New Hampshire Sen. Bob Smith.

Sen. John Ashcroft was among the first to drop out of the presidential race. Ashcroft announced on January 5, 1999 that he would not be a candidate.

January 5, 1999 -- Sen. John Ashcroft declines to run; religious right lacks a candidate with stature: It appeared in 1998 that Missouri Sen. John Ashcroft would be the most likely candidate to unite the religious right. Religious conservatives played a strong role in the GOP nominating process in 1992 and 1996, and it was assumed that their influence would continue. But when Ashcroft announced on January 5 that he would not run for president, the religious right was in a quandary. Bauer, Forbes, Hatch, Keyes, Quayle and Smith all courted these organizations and voters, and both Bauer and Forbes received some significant endorsements, but none of the candidates energized a large portion of the right, because none seemed like credible challengers to Bush or Gore.

Ultimately Bush, who never fit the description of a religious right favorite, was left unchallenged from the right and was able to lure religious conservatives to coalesce around him.

January to March 1999 -- Bush campaign gains speed, Dole campaign stalls

In early 1999, Elizabeth Dole seemed like Bush's strongest opponent. But Dole's campaign seemed in disarray and failed to show the kind of campaign- building and sure-footedness needed to win. Many of Dole's contacts within the Republican establishment were also strong supporters of former President Bush, and they tilted toward Bush over Dole.

In a few months, Bush won over the great majority of GOP insiders, squeezing out Dole's base of support.

Gov. George W. Bush announced his exploratory committee March 2, 1999.

March 2, 1999 -- Bush announces exploratory committee to the Texas press: Illustrating a theme of Texas-orientation, Bush announced his exploratory committee to the Texas press on March 2 and waited until March 7 to deliver the same announcement to national media.

April 13, 1999 -- McCain announces candidacy by fax but postpones tour because of military action in Kosovo; McCain's stature rises: McCain, a former career naval officer and prisoner of war, planned to announce his candidacy in April but postponed campaigning because of the fighting in Kosovo. This seemed to set McCain above the campaign fray and simultaneously helped get him more television time, commenting on the military action. He actually filed exploratory papers December 30, 1998, but he didn't formally announce until September 27, 1999.

June 30, 1999 -- Bush announces he has raised $37 million: Shocking both political commentators and his opponents, Bush announced that he had raised $37 million in just three months. (McCain raised $6.3 million, Dole $3.5 million, Gore $17.5 million and Democratic hopeful Bill Bradley $11.7 million). Bush's fund-raising success broke all records.

July 1999 -- GOP challengers begin to drop out of the race as Bush sucks up all the money: Bush's fund-raising success made it almost impossible for other candidates to gain resources or attention. Rather than run up large campaign debts in seemingly futile efforts, GOP candidates began to drop out.

Rep. John Kasich dropped out of the race in July 1999 and threw his support to Bush.

In July 1999, Bob Smith abandoned the Republican Party and John Kasich dropped out of the race. In August -- two days after finishing sixth in the Ames, Iowa, straw poll -- Lamar Alexander withdrew. Quayle dropped out in September and was followed by Elizabeth Dole in October. Pat Buchanan followed suit less than a week later, announcing his Reform Party candidacy shortly before Halloween.

July 15, 1999 -- Bush decides to forgo campaign finance limits and matching funds: Bush became the first front-runner of either party ever to decline matching funds. This allowed Bush unlimited campaign spending nationally and within each primary state. His ability to outspend his rivals, especially McCain, played a huge role in his primary victories. Bush already has raised and spent more money than any presidential candidate in history. (In comparison, Bill Clinton spent about $38.1 million in 1996 and $33.2 million in 1992, and President Bush spent about $33 million in 1988.)

Gov. George W. Bush, Steve Forbes and Elizabeth Dole were the top winners at the Iowa straw poll in August 1999.

August 14, 1999 -- Bush wins Ames, Iowa, straw poll: All the candidates except Bush (and McCain, who declined to participate) hoped that the Iowa straw poll would give them a special lift. Bush came into the contest very late, after some candidates had been organizing literally for years, and proclaimed on June 24 that "We not only ought to compete -- I think we ought to win the Ames straw poll." Some thought that Bush couldn't organize the state in just weeks, but he did -- by spending more than any other candidate except Steve Forbes. When Bush won this straw poll, he confirmed his front-runner status. None of the other candidates benefited from the event, except Elizabeth Dole, whose third-place showing kept her in the race another two months.

August 1999 -- Bush battles questions about prior drug Use: Beginning on August 18, Bush was battered with questions about whether he had ever used illegal drugs. Questions kept coming because Bush never gave a conclusive answer. At first he said he had taken no illegal drugs in the past seven years, then further commented that he "could have passed" a 15-year background check (which was the length of a background check when his father was in the White House), leaving his press secretary to interpret this to the press as meaning he had not taken drugs since 1974, when he was 28.

Bush refused -- and continues to refuse -- comment about earlier years. In general, Bush refused to answer all questions about what he did when he was "young and irresponsible," by saying he wouldn't play along with the "Washington game" of "gotcha" politics.

November 3, 1999 -- Bush stumbles on the names of world leaders: A local Boston interviewer surprised Governor Bush with a quiz about the names of world leaders. Bush was able to name one of four. Although some saw the quiz as a gimmick, the leaders Bush was asked about were from world hot spots that had been much in the news. This incident highlighted a continuing concern that Bush lacks the experience, knowledge (and some say the intellect) to be president.

Sen. John McCain appeared jointly with former Sen. Bill Bradley to discuss the campaign finance issue.

December 16, 1999 -- McCain makes joint appearance with Bill Bradley for campaign finance reform; illustrates key element of McCain's appeal: McCain made a joint appearance with Bill Bradley to advocate for campaign finance reform. While this event was of little importance by itself, it illustrated how McCain consistently raised the campaign finance issue and demonstrated his independence from the GOP establishment. These themes helped McCain strongly appeal to independents, Democrats and new voters, and not incidentally, brought down the wrath of the GOP establishment -- party officials, officeholders and interest groups. For example, a coalition of the NRA, the Christian Coalition and Americans for Tax Reform attacked McCain in New Hampshire because of his stand on campaign finance reform. Ultimately, the Republican-oriented interest groups played a big role in stopping McCain in South Carolina and other states.

January 2000 -- Bush seems poised to crush his opponents: By January 2000, the Bush campaign had taken on the feel of a rolling coronation. The Texas governor was known to have raised close to $70 million, had collected virtually every major endorsement, and was crushing his remaining opponents in the polls. Steve Forbes was the only candidate thought to have the financial resources to seriously challenge Bush, but his candidacy never caught on among conservatives hungry to reclaim the White House after two straight defeats. As for McCain, his campaign was perceived as confined to New Hampshire, and his distant second- place showing in the national polls was widely taken as a sign that he had little more hope for victory than the quixotic candidacies of Gary Bauer, Orrin Hatch and Alan Keyes.

Bush easily won the Iowa primary in January.

January 24, 2000 -- McCain avoids Iowa primary; Bush wins easily (Bush 41 percent, Forbes 30 percent): The first real contest was marked by the absence of McCain, who chose to avoid Iowa to devote more time and money to New Hampshire. In a December 13 debate in Des Moines, Bush made a strong appeal to religious conservatives when he cited Jesus Christ as the political philosopher or thinker he most identified with. This was just one incident in a long effort by the Bush campaign to woo the right, which also included hiring Ralph Reed, refusing to meet with the Log Cabin Republicans in November and using hard-line language on abortion. Iowa, in effect, left a three- person race between Bush, Forbes and McCain.

February 1, 2000 -- McCain shocks Bush in New Hampshire primary: McCain astounded political observers by burying Bush in a 49 percent - 31 percent landslide. Bush was seen by some in New Hampshire as a big-moneyed Texan who hadn't earned the nomination. In addition, he had skipped two early New Hampshire debates. While the polls had indicated trouble for Bush in New Hampshire, nobody had predicted the size of his defeat. McCain's victory set the stage for what became a hard-fought, bitter struggle for the GOP nomination.

Bush's lead in South Carolina evaporated immediately after the New Hampshire vote. McCain's strategy of concentrating on New Hampshire and South Carolina seemed suddenly brilliant.

After losing the Delaware primary in February, Steve Forbes dropped out of the presidential race.

February 10, 2000 -- Forbes drops out after losing Delaware primary (Bush 51 percent, McCain 25 percent, Forbes 20 percent): Forbes, who won Delaware in 1996, finished a disappointing third behind Bush and McCain. Depending on Delaware to launch a comeback after finishing a distant third in New Hampshire, Forbes was forced to withdraw two days after the primary. It is estimated that Forbes spent more than $70 million on his two presidential campaigns.

February 19, 2000 -- Bush moves further right, fights desperately, and stops McCain's momentum in South Carolina primary: McCain had long declared that his strategy was to win in New Hampshire and South Carolina (although a Southern state and most naturally Bush's base, it had a large veteran population to which McCain could appeal.)

If he succeeded, the media response would have been tremendous and McCain might have used the momentum to topple Bush. Therefore, Bush had to win in South Carolina, and he (and conservative interest groups) pulled out all stops to stop McCain. Trying to pull the "reform" mantle from McCain, Bush had begun trumpeting the slogan "A Reformer with Results." Bush, who had presented himself first as a moderate, then as a conservative, now aimed his efforts at the extreme right. McCain, who has an extremely conservative voting record in the U.S. Senate, was portrayed as a liberal.

Bush showed solidarity with the religious right by visiting Bob Jones University, an institution known for its prohibition on interracial dating and its founder's antipathy toward Catholics. The race took a nasty, personal turn when Bush appeared at a rally with Vietnam veteran Thomas Burch Jr., who questioned McCain's commitment to veterans' issues. McCain, bolstered by an influx of new campaign donations, quickly responded to Bush's attacks by running his own controversial ad arguing that the Texas governor "twists the truth like Clinton."

Charges of push polling were also leveled against Bush at a February 10 McCain town hall meeting in Spartanburg. While McCain soon retreated from his own attacks and pledged to abstain from negative ads, the damage to McCain's clean campaigning reputation had been done. Perhaps most important, Bush very decisively outspent McCain in South Carolina, by perhaps as much as 6 to 1, although exact spending figures are difficult to obtain. A heavy turnout for Bush among conservative Republicans was more than enough to counter a large crossover vote for McCain among Democrats and independents. Bush won, 53 percent to 42 percent.

McCain won the Michigan and Arizona primaries in February.

February 22, 2000 -- McCain uses independent and Democratic voters to win Michigan primary; visit to Bob Jones University haunts Bush: Gov. John Engler promised to make Michigan's primary a "firewall" for the Bush campaign, but a record turnout fueled largely by Democrats and independents instead provided a much-needed boost to the McCain insurgency, with McCain scoring a 50 percent-43 percent win over Bush.

The issue of religion took center stage as the McCain campaign targeted Catholics with phone calls reminding voters of Bush's visit to Bob Jones University. Christian Coalition founder Pat Robertson and the Michigan Right to Life organization countered McCain's so-called "Catholic Voter Alert" with thousands of phone calls and postcards of their own.

Ultimately, Michigan illustrated a key trend in the race -- McCain was able to compete with Bush in states with "open" primaries, where Democrats and independents could cross over to vote for him. Bush won every "closed" primary in the country except for Connecticut and McCain's home state of Arizona.

Bush was the victor in the Virginia primary at the end of February.

February 29, 2000 -- Bush wins Virginia primary as McCain attacks Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell; Bush overwhelms McCain in Washington state primary: The Virginia primary was dominated by McCain's February 28 speech blasting the leaders of the religious right who had fought so hard against him in South Carolina and Michigan.

Speaking in Pat Robertson's back yard of Virginia Beach, McCain said, "We are the party of Ronald Reagan, not Pat Robertson. We are the party of Theodore Roosevelt, not the party of special interests. We are the party of Abraham Lincoln, not Bob Jones -- Neither party should be defined by pandering to the outer reaches of American politics and the agents of intolerance, whether they be Louis Farrakhan or Al Sharpton on the left, or Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell on the right." McCain also jokingly called Robertson and Falwell "forces of evil" on his bus, the Straight Talk Express.

Most pundits believed that McCain was aiming his comments not at Virginia's largely conservative electorate but rather at voters who would head to the polls on March 7 in California, New York and 11 other states.

McCain also made a late decision to contest the primary in Washington state. His overwhelming defeat among Republicans in Washington (and a third loss that day in North Dakota) destroyed whatever momentum McCain had gained from his victory in Michigan and set the stage for a decisive Bush triumph on March 7.

Bush won primaries in California, New York, Ohio, Georgia, Missouri, Maryland and Maine on March 7, 2000, making his nomination inevitable.

March 7, 2000 -- Bush victories make his nomination inevitable; Bush wins primaries in California (Bush 60 percent, McCain 35 percent), New York (Bush 51 percent, McCain 43 percent), Ohio, Georgia, Missouri, Maryland, Maine and caucuses in Minnesota and Washington state while McCain wins in Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Vermont

The big story in the New York Republican primary was not the result -- Bush won most of the delegates -- but rather McCain's fight just to get on the ballot. For years, the New York GOP had governed access to the ballot through a series of complex and burdensome requirements that usually restricted the choices available to the voters and almost always ensured an easy victory for the party's favored candidate. After a long and highly publicized battle, McCain won his fight when a federal judge ordered on February 4 that the ballot be opened to the entire Republican field.

On March 2, Bush backers Sam and Charles Wyly began discreetly airing over $2.5 million in ads in New York, Ohio and California, attacking McCain and defending Bush on his environmental record. Bush denied involvement in the ads. Soon after, the Bush campaign released a radio ad in New York, attacking McCain as an enemy of breast cancer research. By March 7, it was too late for McCain to recover. He was overwhelmed by Bush's popularity, campaign money and organizational support.

McCain suspended his campaign March 9.

March 9, 2000 -- McCain suspends his campaign, effectively concedes to Bush: Defeated in every region of the country except New England on March 7, McCain announced the suspension of his campaign on March 9 in Sedona, Arizona.

With Alan Keyes left as the only official opponent on the ballot, the path was now clear for Bush to seal the nomination when voters in six Southern states weighed in one week later. Bush decisively won every primary and caucus after this date.

Bush's victory, although fairly quick, came at quite a price. First, the literal price tag -- Bush was forced to spend every penny of his $70 million war chest -- was unexpected and prevented him from overwhelming Gore with a cash advantage shortly after winning the nomination.

Second, the bitterness of the primary caused rifts between establishment GOP voters and "reform" voters that still need to be mended.