September 20, 1995
Web posted at: 8:45 a.m. EDT
From Environment Unit Reporter David Mattingly
ATLANTA, Georgia (CNN) -- The earth's climate is changing, and human activity is partially to blame. That's the conclusion of a draft report by hundreds of international scientists.
The report by a United Nations group of 2,500 researchers predicts global warming will cause sea levels to rise up to 40 inches by the year 2100.
It's the first time there has been a consensus on global warming and its causes. One cause is the burning of fossil fuels such as oil and coal, which releases carbon dioxide. The carbon dioxide helps trap heat in the atmosphere. This intensifies the so-called "greenhouse effect" that keeps the earth warm.
"The real issue here is that human action is causing a significant change in our global environment," said Cynthia Rosenzeig, a scientist with the NASA Goddard Institute for Space and co-author of the draft report. "And that is the issue we have to address politically and socially."
The report says by the year 2100, temperatures will increase by 1 1/2 to 8 degrees Fahrenheit. That could make bad weather even worse, intensifying floods, droughts and heat waves.
Mike McCracken, director of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, said global warming would create more favorable conditions for the spread of disease carriers, such as mosquitoes. "If it doesn't get cold at night, and it doesn't get as cold in the winter, they aren't killed off and so can exist in larger regions," he said.
Support for the draft is not universal, however. Some critics say computer models used to create the predictions are flawed.
"The fact remains ... that we have to have much more sophisticated models before we can go to decision-making in this process," said John Schlaes, executive director of the Global Climate Coalition.
At the 1992 Earth Summit, nations signed an agreement to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to 1990 levels by the year 2000. They have yet to fulfill that promise. But the report says even if emissions were stabilized today, average temperatures would still rise by at least a degree.
Still, the researchers recommend solutions: using more natural gas and nuclear power, along with renewable energy sources like solar power and wind.
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