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11/20/08
Surprises Lurking in the Shadows
The noise represents the sound of expansion -- big pylon drivers bang away day and night as yet another tower looks to fill more space in the Dubai skyline.
Depending on where you are staying, big shadows are cast from these vast skyscrapers which block the bright sunlight of the Arabian Gulf. But visitors to the region in search of high growth and opportunity are finding that even the best intentions and strong will cannot overcome what is a Western-led financial crisis. The finance minister of the region’s most populous country, Egypt, is striking a more cautious tone right now after posting the best economic growth in two decades. Youssef Boutros Ghali is an old hand in Egyptian politics and he told Marketplace Middle East he is only hoping for the best. When asked if Egypt can hold onto at least five and a half percent growth after hitting more than seven percent last year, Boutros Ghali hedged his bets: “I am keeping my fingers cross. We have not seen the end of this problem. We have not seen the end of this crisis. My suspicion is there are surprises lurking in the shadows. ” There are signs of concern from most camps throughout this broad region. Just two months ago, the International Monetary Fund was predicting growth in excess of six percent. That is low by regional standards, but certainly not recession. The challenge is the pillars that were projected to support that growth -- oil, property development and financial services -- are in the danger zone. As I was waiting for a car to take me to chair the Leaders in Dubai conference this past week a banker from Bahrain shared his thoughts with me: “We don’t know where we are going,” then drawing on the metaphor of the car he was about to jump into he said, “That is my biggest fear after knowing only growth for a decade.” It was a brief encounter, but certainly summed up the sentiment. A great deal of information is shared in the lobbies of hotels, at the coffee bars and, yes, in the taxi queues. I always find the lobby of the Emirates Towers Hotel the best hub for gathering sentiment. A year ago while taking in an espresso there, the talk was dominated by private equity players from Europe and Asia ready to fund the latest project. Today, the discussion is about which projects get completed and which ones get mothballed. This is the modern form of the ancient agora where real time information and gossip from business peers replaces efforts by government leaders to manage expectations. Those participating from outside the region at Leaders in Dubai were not providing the answers or inspiration that many were looking for. James Wolfensohn, the former head of the World Bank said no corner of the world will be left untouched. He pointed to outstanding derivative trades that still need to be unwound that hover over the banking sector like a dark cloud. “I can only say we are in a tough situation” said the veteran banker. On the trip back to Dubai Marina on the Sheikh Zayed Road, one scans the skyline to see what has been completed to date and what is still under construction. This is one of those places where it is difficult to tell how much capacity is too much. There are a lot of rental signs in place which seems to square up with a report from HSBC that house prices in Dubai and Abu Dhabi fell for the first time. That seems only logical after a four-fold surge over the last decade. Right now, global markets are not being built on logic, but on fear. That is what has taken the Dow Industrials below 8000, oil below $50 a barrel and property prices in some markets around the world down 20-30 percent. Labels: . Emiratesa Towers Hotel, Dubai, international monetary fund, oil, Youssef Boutros Ghali 11/14/08
Barrels of Concern
When we were in school doing our maths, our teachers always instructed us to use a pencil and not a pen in case we made mistakes. It was impossible to erase a miscalculation back then. Those who are making economic and energy forecasts right now might be wise to do the same. With as much exuberance on the way up to $147 in July, we are witnessing equal pessimism on the way down to $55 a barrel. The internal tussle within OPEC back in July was supplying more oil to meet demand. Today, the 13 members cannot scale back fast enough. After trimming production by one and a half million barrels a day since September, they are looking at another emergency meeting for the end of November in Cairo. Playing catch up with the markets is always a frustrating game, and that is the one being played out today. If we continue along this path, don’t be surprised if the six and a half percent growth earmarked by the International Monetary Fund for the Middle East gets crossed out shortly for a lower number. That will spill over to the property sector where we are starting to see 10-20 percent falls for villas and flats in Dubai. Officially we don’t know how leveraged some of these companies are, but there is a lot of discussion off-line that provides a pretty good indication. In the meantime, OPEC members will do their level best to find the middle ground. While on a trip to Cyprus for bi-lateral meetings, the Prime Minister of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassim Bin Jabr Al-Thani reiterated his call for a trading band, "We think that $70 to $90 is a fair price because you need to keep new exploration to go on and as you know, the investment in the oil is expensive.” That appears to be the Goldilocks scenario for OPEC: not too hot, not too cold, but just right. Right now, regional producers still make plenty of money at $55, but they are losing $2 billion dollars a day from the go-go times of July -- that’s three quarters of a trillion dollars a year. Power in Reserves In their World Energy Outlook, the IEA projected spending of $24 trillion in energy between now and 2030 to meet the demands of the fast developing countries from Asia to Latin America. I found it interesting that only a quarter of that (he says lightly) is forecasted to be spent on oil and gas. Half is forecasted to be spent on power generation and a good slice of the total on conservation. The IEA sees demand growing from 86 million barrels a day to over 100 million in that time frame. Make no doubt about it, with 78 percent of the proven reserves today, OPEC will be in the driver’s seat once the doom and gloom clears -- whether it is in 2010 or a tad later. Non-OPEC oil fields are reportedly depleting by six percent a year now. That is expected to jump to eight percent in the next two decades. If that is the case and this forecast holds up, the IEA believes oil will average $100 a barrel between now and 2015. By 2030, the agency is expecting today’s barrel of oil to be priced at $200. In the meantime, a projected $450 billion is needed to develop reserves that have been identified and even more to find those which have not. At today’s prices that is a tall order. Let’s hope that the Goldilocks scenario returns fast so forecasters can rework their numbers up, rather than down yet again. Labels: international monetary fund, oil, OPEC, world energy outlook 9/25/08
New World Disorder
Henry Paulson, who cut his teeth in one of the toughest shops on Wall Street to rise to the top at Goldman Sachs, finds an entirely different dynamic on Capitol Hill these days.One can charge ahead like a locomotive with great steam within the confines of your own company, but garnering support from both sides of the aisle in Washington during the eye of the storm is a whole new ball game. Secretary Paulson has teamed up -- quite artfully -- with Federal Reserve Board chairman, Ben Bernanke, despite their different personalities and backgrounds, one being a financier, the other an academic. Cries of “financial socialism” emerged from their Capitol Hill committee appearances for the $700 billion bailout package which has the U.S. government, and therefore the U.S. taxpayer, assuming all the risk for the gambling undertaken by Paulson’s former circle of bankers. While this remains a U.S.-led banking crisis, it is difficult to find a calm port in the storm. Bankers in Britain and continental Europe are still trying to count up their exposure. This week, the central bank in the United Arab Emirates set up a $14 billion pool of funds to free up lending, primarily in Dubai. Here in this column we have talked about the $1 trillion of projects now on the books in the region, a third of those sit on the sands of the U.A.E. The government is not eager for lending to freeze up and construction to grind to a halt. The market panic, which has gripped every investor in the past two weeks, hit as it became clear that a re-evaluation of Gulf currencies against the dollar was not a priority. As a result, foreign capital quickly exited the region when the sell-off spread. Most equity markets in the Middle East are down by a third from their peaks. It is a rare instance when the world’s financial disorder finds its way to the floor of the United Nations, but that was the case at the General Assembly where U.S. President George W. Bush told leaders that Washington was taking the “bold steps” necessary to turn the tide on the crisis. French President Nicolas Sarkozy, following up his recent efforts on the global diplomatic scene in Georgia and with the E.U. Med effort, is looking at the bigger picture. Sarkozy stated, “The 21st century world cannot be governed with institutions of the 20th century.” The French president is proposing a summit after the U.S. elections aimed at bringing together a cross section of the global economy, the G7 plus Brazil, Russia, India, China (the so-called BRIC countries) to discuss regulated capitalism. Broadly put, the regulators have been far behind the pace set by the commercial bankers who have come up with a whole range of fancy products that were bought by many but understood by few. That should change and coordination amongst the new and old economic powers needs to improve. The risks assumed by America’s brand name banks should have shown up like flashing red lights on the regulatory radar; ditto for the futures trading that helped drive oil prices to a record $147 a barrel this summer. The problem is the lack of a global regulator looking at the bigger picture these days. The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) all have their own briefs, but they have all been noticeably absent during this crisis. There has been an effort to expand the G7 to include five fast-growing economies, the BRIC countries, plus South Africa. That effort has stalled with some members of the G7 feeling threatened by the emerging players. If there is a silver lining from this crisis, it may come in the form of a rejuvenated effort to see eye to eye on a new financial architecture. While they are looking at new blueprints and new models, it should be more inclusive if the fast growing sovereign funds of the Middle East have a voice. While no individual country in the region can claim a seat just yet, it is pretty difficult to ignore the petrodollars and the $1.5 trillion now on hand for global investment. Labels: ben bernanke, BRIC countries, g7, henry paulson, international monetary fund, organisation for economic cooperation and development |
ABOUT THIS BLOG
John Defterios’ blog accompanies the weekly business program, Marketplace Middle East (MME) that is dedicated to the latest financial news from the Middle East. As MME anchor, John Defterios talks to the people in the know, finding out their opinions on the big business moves in the region, he provides his views via this weekly blog. We hope you will join the discussion around the issues raised.
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