Marketplace Middle East - Blog
7/9/09
That creaking sound
The G-8 meeting in the Umbrian hills of Italy served less to inspire unity, and more as a historical turning point, marking the passage of a tired institution.

The G-8 or “Gee-Otto” as the Italians say is misleading by both description and substance. For one, the members are no longer the leading industrialized nations, with China now the second largest economy in the world. Number two, the G-8 does not and cannot live life in isolation. In fact, 16 leaders were invited, with China’s President Hu Jintao needing to duck out early to attend to protests back home.

There was little agreement from the core G-8 on the next steps to combat the worst downturn in six decades. Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel called for an exit strategy from the deficit spending and pump priming to inflate the global economy.

A global climate change commitment remains challenging -– despite verbal commitments -- as the developing countries focus instead on job and wealth creation. This should not be at the expense of the environment. As mobile phone technology helped developing countries leap-frog after years of underinvestment in that sector, so too can rapidly evolving green technologies. Environmental policy is a prime example of why the G-20 is a more modern body and why the door should be shut on the creaking G-8.

We will get a better idea if the G-20 can stand on its own in September when leaders gather in the old steel town, now modern research and development hub, of Pittsburgh. One cannot miss U.S. President Barack Obama’s motivations here. Observers can almost hear him saying “You too can modernize with the times as did the old rust belt of America.”

While this summit was short on real solutions, there was a non-binding consensus on what is a quickly evolving fair price for a barrel of oil. The range of $70-80 was floated at the meeting and a spokesman for Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev confirmed this raised few objections. Like most G-8 efforts, enforcement and follow through may be difficult, but the Goldilocks scenario –- of a price that is not too hot nor too cold –- is gathering momentum.

At the recent European Union-OPEC Meeting in Vienna, a similar consensus emerged from the closed door sessions. When oil prices slid from a peak of $147 a year ago down to $35 in December, OPEC members decided to shelve 35 of 150 projects on their books. What we have not heard since this recovery to $60 plus is whether more and more of them will come back on-line.

Middle East in Italy

Summit host Silvio Berlusconi, under fire at home for what may have happened at his private parties, wanted to use this meeting as a means to shore up poll ratings. Rather quietly, the billionaire also extended invitations to help secure Italy’s long-term energy supplies.

Leaders from Algeria, Egypt, Libya and Turkey attended this G-8 meeting. Three of the players are key natural gas exporters to Italy, the fourth, Turkey, is a key transit hub for both oil and natural gas.

A few interesting facts to be aware of: Algeria ranks fourth in natural gas exports today; a large share of that gas ends up in the Italian market. Not surprisingly perhaps, Italian contractors are playing a major role in Algeria’s natural gas development with two of the first nine tenders going to Italian companies.

There is a similar storyline playing out in Libya, where it is the largest holder of proven oil reserves in Africa, estimated at 41 billion barrels. Libya plans to expand oil production from 1.8 million barrels a day to three million in less than five years. It too is starting to ramp up natural gas production.

Prime Minister Berlusconi had a two-pronged strategy when he visited Libya last summer. He apologized for Italy’s 30-year colonial rule and committed to a $5 billion compensation package spread out over two decades. The money will be used to modernize Libya’s infrastructure and very likely cement Italy’s relationship in this neighbourhood where energy is plentiful.

Berlusconi was not reserved in saying during President Qaddafi’s recent visit to Rome last month that Italian companies should have priority or be “prima fila,” the front row, for future contracts.

The G-8 may be short on concrete solutions for the global economy, but it may very well have served a purpose for Italy and by extension the European Union when it comes to energy.

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ABOUT THIS BLOG
John Defterios’ blog accompanies the weekly business program, Marketplace Middle East (MME) that is dedicated to the latest financial news from the Middle East. As MME anchor, John Defterios talks to the people in the know, finding out their opinions on the big business moves in the region, he provides his views via this weekly blog. We hope you will join the discussion around the issues raised.
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