From The Morning GrindGeorgia voters head to the polls today as Democrats pick a gubernatorial nominee to challenge Gov. Sonny Perdue (R) in November and Ralph Reed battles to become the Republican nominee for lieutenant governor.
Current Lieutenant Gov. Mark Taylor (D) is expected to defeat Secretary of State Cathy Cox (D) for the right to challenge Gov. Sonny Perdue (R) in November, Georgia political analysts tell the Grind.
Meanwhile Reed, the former head of the Christian Coalition, is locked in a tight contest with state Sen. Casey Cagle (R) for the GOP's lieutenant governor's nomination. It is the Reed/Cagle contest that is drawing national attention given Reed's close association with convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Reed was once hired by Abramoff to run anti-gambling campaigns that were paid for by competing casinos.
Bill Shipp, a political columnist who appears in 55 Georgia newspapers, said he thinks that Reed will lose because his natural base of social conservatives is divided over his work for Abramoff.
"I think the Christian Right has been split and they have decided all that Abramoff stuff is much more than they can handle," Shipp said in an interview. (Here is Shipp's July 16 column on the race, via the
Marietta Daily Journal)
Daniel Franklin, a political science professor at Georgia State University, agreed with Shipp saying he thinks social conservatives will decide to stay at home.
"One thing you can give the moral majority credit for is they are very serious about their morals and will not come out and vote," Franklin said.
Cagle has made Reed's relationship with Abramoff a centerpiece of his campaign triggering a television ad war between the two candidates. (See two examples
here and
here)
Evan Tracey of TNSMI/Campaign Media Analysis Group, CNN's consultant on television advertising spending, estimates that Cagle spent more than $1 million, while Reed spent about $976,000 on the TV advertising.
