CAMPAIGNS SPENDING MILLIONS ON ENERGY ADS

Even before the first vote was cast last week to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to gas and oil exploration, its fate was all but sealed. The House approved the measure, but it will likely be stopped dead cold in the Senate.

For another election cycle, ANWR will become campaign fodder and this year rising energy costs is expected to heavily influence voters in the midterm elections.

After the vote, House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Illinois) chided Democrats for failing to offer real solutions. "If Democrats spent as much time voting for solutions to our energy problems as they do giving lip service to the American people, we'd already enjoy lower gas prices," he charged.

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-California) countered by accusing President Bush of cozying up to big oil and trying to sacrifice "one of America's last truly wild places, for the sake of a small amount of oil."

It is not clear who voters will believe in November, but a recent CNN poll showed that 70 percent of Americans said gas prices would be "extremely important" or "very important" when they voted for Congress in November.

"Everyone is talking about energy," Stuart Rothenberg, publisher of the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report, told the Grind. "It is one of the top issues in the cycle along with Iraq."

Not only are Democrats and Republicans talking about it in Congress, but it is becoming a major theme in the television campaign commercials beamed into their constituents' homes. So far this year, $23.3 million has been spent on campaign advertisements that discuss energy policy, according to TNSMI/Campaign Media Analysis Group, CNN's consultant on television advertising spending. Of that, Democrats have accounted for $4.7 million since April 1, while Republicans have spent about $90,000. In comparison, during this same two month time period, candidates have spent $2.1 million on anti-lobbyist television ads and another $2.9 million on anti-prescription drug TV ads.

"Going back to the early 90's, industries started to became focal points of campaign advertising from tobacco companies in the 90's, followed by HMO's, followed by the pharmaceutical industry and it now appears as though energy is claiming that mantle," said Evan Tracey, TNSMI/CMAG's chief operating officer.

As we move closer to November expect to see more politicians, such as Rep. Harold Ford (D-Tennessee), using gas stations as backdrops in their television ads. Ford, who is running for Senate, recently aired a commercial that showed him standing outside an Exxon gas station complaining that it cost $45 to fill up the tank of his vehicle.

***

PROTECTING ITS TURF

While Democrats from a dozen states are lobbying the Democratic National Committee for the right to be an early caucus or primary state in 2008, South Carolina Republicans will make a move today to protect the Palmetto State's position as the first GOP presidential primary in Dixie. State Republican leaders will hold a news conference (see time and location below in the Dayahead section) announcing the creation of a presidential primary task force charged with doing just that.

"We will outline why it is important to our economy, tourism and the presidential candidates coming to South Carolina early," Scott Malyerck, executive director of the South Carolina Republican Party, told the Grind. Malyerck said visits by candidates are particularly important to the state party because these presidential aspirants help to raise money for the county parties, who then spend it on grassroots organizing efforts. State GOP Chairman Katon Dawson will head the task force that will also include State House Speaker Bobby Harrell, State Senate Majority Leader Harvey Peeler, Republican National Committee members Buddy Witherspoon and Cindy Costa, and other GOP and business leaders.

As of now, the State Republican Party is not working with the State Democratic Party on scheduling their presidential primaries on the same day. The South Carolina Democratic Party is one of the 12 states asking the DNC for the privilege of being an early presidential proving ground. "If they move it up, it is good for the economy down here," Malyerck said of the Democratic efforts. "But we are going to do it when we think it is best. If it happens on the same day -- great."

***

THE DIFFICULTY OF RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT AS MAJORITY LEADER

Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tennessee) made headlines and angered some fellow Republicans when he said on Fox News Sunday that he didn't think the FBI acted improperly by raiding the Capitol Hill office of Rep. William Jefferson (D-Louisiana). Just days earlier, Frist joined other Congressional leaders such as Hastert and Pelosi in voicing concern that the raid violated the separation of powers as outlined in the Constitution. Jefferson is being investigated for his involvement in a bribery scheme. Some Republicans suggested that Frist flip-flopped because he is running for president and thought it was politically foolish to defend Jefferson. A source close to Frist vehemently denies it.

"The Leader did express concerns during the week and those concerns were put to rest," said the Frist confidante.

And a Frist spokesperson said the Majority Leader "understands and appreciates the House leaderships' concerns" and noted that he remains "a strong supporter of separation of powers and will continue a dialogue to make sure that any future incidents are handled with deference to Congress' rights."

Frist is learning that every legislative move he makes will be scrutinized to see if it is intended to help a potential 2008 presidential bid. Should Frist decide to run, history shows that he faces long odds at winning the presidency, CNN's Keating Holland notes. Holland said his research shows that 28 men, who either held major Senate or House leadership posts or previously served in a major leadership position, have made White House bids.

Only two, James Polk and Lyndon Johnson, were elected. A third, Gerald Ford, became president without being elected. But Ford was defeated when he ran for the office in his first and only presidential campaign.