Wednesday, January 09, 2008
Why Hillary won... and it's not what you might think







Candy Crowley
Senior Political Correspondent





New Hampshire re-sets what Iowa did. Why were the polls so off? Ask the pollsters. I suspect it has something to do with late deciders.

Now how did HRC pull it off? Beyond her "new" message (not so new really) and a superior get out the vote effort and a new push for younger female voters..... Pardon me for this sidebar if somebody tells me again it was her near tears episode I will do a Dean scream..... do we really think a bunch of voters made a decision based on her voice breaking? As Bill Clinton says, give me a break. This is a fairy tale. But I digress.


You want to know what really made the difference?

New Hampshire is not Iowa.


Posted By CNN: 10:44 AM ET
  9 Comments
Candy,
I agree with you. I think every state is different in their make up and how they think about the issues. I think that is what helped Hillary win. But I do think that her showing her human side did help her some. It made her more personable! And that she has never been...atleast not to me!

Cynthia, Covington, Ga.
Posted By Blogger Cindy : 11:00 AM ET
Candy

I realize that Hilliary won on the popular vote but did she win or tie on delegates? I noted that there were 22 democratic delegates and that Clinton got 9, Obama got 9 and I think Edwards got 4. Then there are 5 superdelegates but I did not see how they were divided up. So to me on the surface looking at delegates it looks more like a tie. Is that right or does it work differently and I'm just missing the nuances of how it works.

You did a great job on all the coverage. I hope it will be a while before you have to stand back out in the cold to report again!

Annie Kate
Birmingham AL
Posted By Blogger Annie Kate : 11:06 AM ET
Candy,

I agree with you 100 percent! When I heard Clinton's "emotional moment" I immediately knew she would get hammered for it.

I am one of those Independent voters everyone is after, but I have found much of the media's coverage of this incident offensive, even TSR referred to HRC as being "Choked Up" on their banner, which they quickly replaced I might add.

I think the competition, and yes, even many in the media, are hoping that "moment" is what caused the sudden and unexpected voting block for her in New Hampshire, after all they have to explain why they are standing there today with egg on their faces, but I have a feeling it is something more. I guess time will tell.

Thanks for all of your excellent coverage; you are a first rate journalist!

Jo Ann
North Royalton, Ohio
Posted By Blogger Jo Ann : 2:53 PM ET
Candy:

I am in complete agreement with you on this matter and I think we would all do well to remember this from this point on. Maybe you could insert this article, using updated states, daily or weekly, as needed. Then maybe our heads would fit into our hats again.

Also just wanted to let you know that all of your work is really appreciated by the consumer minds out here. Your long hours, freezing appendages, long suffering work teaches each of us daily and you truly are a 'trusted' CNN Senior Political Analyst. You earn your paycheck, girl!
Posted By Anonymous Sandi : 6:30 PM ET
Thank you, Candy! Why doesn't anyone call misogyny! That's what I've been hearing from both male and female commentators! Has anyone remarked on it isn't a "feeling" but the action that Hillary has done and will do? I am shocked that in this century, sexism is allowed so easily!
Posted By Anonymous Cachelle : 8:33 PM ET
Candy,
I too appreciate your objective, even reporting. Two comments, really.

To the press: Please stop assuming that most of us vote for gender or race. We are smarter than that.

To Senator Clinton: Retool the campaign, but don't retool yourself. Be who you really are and speak what you really believe. Don't become the Stepford Candidate.
Posted By Anonymous Bella from Ohio : 9:49 PM ET
With her surprise upset win in New Hampshire, Sen Hillary Clinton is right back in the game. Sen Obama came into the state riding a wave of enthusiasm amongst his supporters since his win in Iowa. The polls had Sen Obama anywhere from four to twelve points ahead.

Every poll expected him to carry the state. The polls did get it wrong in New Hampshire Tuesday night, but the polling data was mostly from a day or two before. Hard to explain why the exit polls were so far off though? Something swung this around in the last twenty four to thirty six hours.

Hillary Clinton had a connect moment, especially with women voters on Monday, when she let her guard down briefly. She talked from the heart, on a more personal level, about her concerns regarding America's future. She came across as warmer, caring, sincere, and human.

Sen Clinton said she was disturbed about the direction the country was heading after seven years of the Bush administration. Then she insisted we must reverse it. Next Hillary said she didn't want to see the country take a step backwards. I'm convinced she was talking about if a Democrat did not win back the White House back in 08. I don't think she was implying Obama would be a step backwards, at all.

I've been hearing some say race may have been a factor. What about the fact Obama is a Muslim? For the past seven years the word Muslim often has words like extremist...terrorist....attached to it. It's been a climate of fear against Muslim extremism on a daily basis. We are still in a War on Terror, right?

Unfortunately, if either race or religion were a factor here, they're both acts of prejudice. I'll admit that race and religious prejudices do still exist here in America, to some degree today. But, I still believe Hillary's more personal, more human, connect moment with the voters, was the biggest factor in swinging things around in the last twenty four hours.
Jeff Morris-Saugerties, N.Y.- DeJaVu57
Posted By Anonymous Jeff Morris-Saugerties, N.Y.- DeJaVu57 : 9:55 PM ET
Candy,
I couldn't agree more about how much credence has been given to the "crying" moment cinching Clinton's victory. To all of the Clinton haters, believe it or not,she is human. Candy you and David Gergen are my favorite political analysts. I always look forward to your commentary.
Thanks,
Jon from TN
Posted By Blogger Jon : 3:40 PM ET
Thanks for finally saying it Candy!


If there are voters out there who feel like she has shown herself to be a real person by crying, they are dragging sexist expectations into our democratic process. Would we need Barack and Edwards to cry also to show that they are real people? HRC is as good or better as the men alongside her and we don't need gender sepecific sterotyping expectations.

Isn't it possible that NH voted for her REGARDLESS!
Posted By Anonymous Garon Wade, Austin Texas : 7:31 PM ET
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