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Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Watch the New Hampshire rip tide

--Candy Crowley, Senior Political Correspondent

50 degrees in New Hampshire in early January? As Barack Obama likes to say, "Something's happening out there."

Warmer means older people may come out in larger numbers: Advantage Clinton, whose support base trends female and older.

'Course warmer also means bigger turnout across the board, including huge numbers of independents, who can vote in either primary: Advantage Obama, whose base (in Iowa anyway) was pretty, well, across the board and independent.

McCain's looking for indies too. Truly, at some of these rallies you can find people deciding between Obama and McCain. I mean, huh? Thus the term "quirky" New Hampshire voters.

Things to watch for tonight: 1) size of indie vote in Republican primary, the more the better for McCain. If it's mostly base Republicans, Romney may get by.

On Democratic side, watch how the registered dems vote. If HRC loses to Obama at the base of the party, she is in deep do-do in NH and beyond. Something's happening out there all right. Just wish we knew what. We will very soon.

Your turn, New Hampshire.

Posted By CNN: 5:51 PM ET
10 Comments

Candy,
So I've heard that record turnouts have occured today! It's going to really be hard to predict who won when so many variables are out there at play! I can't wait until the coverage tonight to get the results! Hopefully there will be some upsets! It makes for a more interesting race that way! LOL

Cynthia, Covington, Ga.

Posted By

Cindy : 6:28 PM ET

Cindy/AC360:
The primaries are like a magic show. It is full of magic tricks but everyone knows that at some time during the show, the magician is going to pull the rabbit out of the hat.

It will be interesting to see who is going to be the rabbit bouncing out of New Hampshire into South Carolina.

T-h-a-t's A-l-l F-o-l-k-s!

Posted By

Sharon from Indy : 6:41 PM ET

Once all is said and done in New Hampshire I hope there are enough candidates in the race still to give the rest of the states with primaries something to vote about.

I suppose that candidates drop out early to minimize the cost of their running. I hope HRC, Edwards, and Richardson don't do this; Obama may be a movement that runs out of gas or finds states with lots of delegates that don't identify with him or his message - they may prefer the experience factor.

I'm looking forward to watching the returns tonight and hearing your take on them. I just hope this contest stays a contest until the conventions.

Annie Kate
Birmingham AL

Posted By

Annie Kate : 7:16 PM ET

It is a strange phenomenon that people are influenced by early primaries. It's almost as if the "undecided" voters in states that haven't selected delegates are watching to see who the "undecideds" in Iowa, NH and S Carolina vote for !

Posted By

william d. , milwaukee wi. : 7:42 PM ET

It is starting to look slightly brighter for Hillary! I was shaken by her slip yesterday. I'm not sure yet if she is the candidate for me, but I certainly admire her for being so strong among such scrutiny. And what is all this jargon about her not having emotions? Do any of the other candidates show any more emotions than she does? Or is this America's sexist, biased perception of a controversial woman?

Never have I seen or heard of such a surge of independents. I don't think that deciding between a democrat or a republican makes the voters "quirky," per se; I think it makes them open-minded.

I really truly love CNN. Only on a CNN blog will you find a reporter saying "deep do-do." That's what America is all about people!

Posted By

Donnie of Spartanburg, SC : 8:14 PM ET

Seriously Anderson, all day for and for the last 24 hours, you guys have been totally pushing Obama on us, what is going on? Clinton is ahead, you guys are downplaying it now that the numbers are in. This is hilarious... Why are you guys downplaying her when she is 4 points up????? IS CNN embbarrassed they might have missed the mark???

Posted By

Angela from Seattle : 8:39 PM ET

It's cool that Mitt Romney spent $8 million and John McCain only $3.9 million and look who won. At least that says that some voters don't vote just because they see a million TV commercials for the candidate!

Posted By

Steve Peoria IL : 8:54 PM ET

I really like the fact that no one candidate is winning by landslides.
It's a flippy flop seesaw. Up, down, and wobble. In the end, I think this will be good for the country. It makes the candidates more humble and it makes us really look at each one more closely than perhaps we would have.

Lorie Ann, Buellton, Calif.

Posted By

Lorie Ann : 9:29 PM ET

I'm not much for politics but I am tired of just taking what is given.

I'm still deciding on candidates myself.

I want someone who will help the environment, education, and social programs (Democrat).

When the candidates some to Los Angeles, I hope they stop by 3rd and San Pedro (LA's Skid Row) as well as Beverly Hills. These are also "the people" and this is "a government of the people, by the people, for the people."

They need the breaks more than the Westsiders.

Posted By

Sabrina in Los Angeles : 9:36 PM ET

Hi Candy! I have to admit that I am the kind of woman that Randi Kaye talked about last night. I had to work for equal pay and respect in the work force. I was in the banking industry. I was smart enough not to burn any underwear, but worked harder than most to succeed. I saw, on the screen, that two men carried signs that read "Iron My Shirts". I'll have to say that if I had been standing next to them, those signs would have been dangling from private parts of their anatomy. That mind set will be hard to fight. P.S. I do try to be a kind and gentle soul!

Posted By

Kathy Chicago,Il : 9:38 PM ET

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