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Friday, January 18, 2008

Here's what you can bet on in Vegas

Candy Crowley
Senior Political Correspondent

Yet another journey into the portal to the unknown. We don't know what's going to happen in Nevada. But this time we know we don't know what's going on..

Pardon the cliche, but Nevada is a crap shoot. (Can I say that on a mainstream blog?)

Polls show HRC up by 7-9 points but I know how you all feel about polls... And honestly, pardon this next cliche, it's all going to depend on who shows up.

Whenever you ask those in the know what sort of participation they'll get in the caucuses you get this "somewhere between 25-thousand and 125-thousand." HUH?

Then there's all this union muscle out there. Edwards, Clinton and Obama all have help from organized labor out here. Barack Obama has the politically potent Culinary Workers Union but lets briefly note what the unions did for HRC in Iowa. (Just reading in? She lost.)

Anywho, I'm sitting here in a parking lot of a Las Vegas stip mall awaiting an Edwards rally. His campaign is steaming at the media for "portraying the Democratic race as a two-person contest." They are not entirely wrong.

So I do want to say that the Edwards people think he has a real shot here. They also thought that in Iowa where he finished second.

It's early here and hard to be original, sans coffee, so pardon my third cliche: It's a good bet all three will survive Las Vegas to fight it out (again) in South Carolina.

That's John Edwards' birth state, by the way, and only state he won in the 2004 primary race. Pressure's on.

Posted By CNN: 12:11 PM ET
11 Comments

Hi Candy,
As a journalism student, it is especially fascinating to me to study the coverage of this race to the White House, and I want to tell you that you have the great talent to always get right to the heart of the matter. After just reading your blog from Las Vegas, if you'll pardon MY cliche, you are right on the money!

Posted By

Debbie, Rochester, New York : 1:13 PM ET

It's amazing that different people have won different primaries. What' s wrong with this years' candidates?

Posted By

Bill, Louisville, KY. : 1:30 PM ET

I heard that Hillary is giving voters mini-swag - t-shirts and tote bags and things like that. Can you score one of these when you're in Nevada? I'd like to see you show viewers these -- ahem - incentive bags...

Posted By

Mike H, Colorado Spr,-CO : 1:34 PM ET

Yeah, I guess the Nevada caucus is a roll of the dice and anybody's to win. I can't wait to see Hillary and Obamas' Vegas acts !

Posted By

Diane, Providence, R.I. : 1:37 PM ET

I get the impression that Nevada is "libertarian" country. I hope that with all the focus on sub-groups such as "Evangelicals", etc., you will briefly talk about the Libertarian vote.

I also just heard the news that the President will announce in his State of the Union speech next week an $800 rebate to taxpayers. Please let us know what the reaction on the street is to this one.

Posted By

Dane P, Omaha, Ne. : 1:42 PM ET

Nevada isn't a very 'activist' type state, so I don't think you'll see the turnout tomorrow in the caucus. But my prediction is that Hillary will come in first.

Posted By

Janet, Yuma AZ : 1:45 PM ET

Candy

Your blog is probably the most honest blog I have seen about this race. I don't think anyone will know the result of this until after the results. Thanks for mentioning HRC is ahead in the polls. Whenever Obama is ahead in any poll CNN seems to make a story about it and often when Clinton is ahead there is silence. Whether polls are realistic in this situation is another thing. There is something Rachel Maddow stated after New Hampshire that the polls there had shown Clinton ahead for a long time and that was probably a better indicator of the chances of winning.
I still think having polling places in your place of work is a bad idea especially if there is an organized effort behind a single candidate by an organization which has input into the direction an employee's career may take. On top of that it is a public vote which every person will know who you voted for. Just think of the actor's guild not crossing picket lines and you get an idea of how hard it will be to cross the union and vote for anyone other than their choice. The union may have less sway than we think or it may have all the influence that's another thing to be seen at the end of the race. Keep up the good work and stay neutral like David Gergen and Anderson Cooper. People like you keep me tuning into CNN.

Posted By

Bill : 3:13 PM ET

I agree with you, Candy. Whatever happens in these early primaries, all the candidates are going to stay in the race at least until Super Tuesday.

Oh, and by the way, I enjoy your commentary and analysis of politics. You are almost always, right on.

Posted By

Joseph Kowalski, North Huntingdon, PA : 3:57 PM ET

Candy,
Nothing is ever a sure bet in Vegas! I don't think anyone can ever predict the outcome of these primaries or caucuses so I don't even look at the polls.

I think that it is going to be a VERY tight race between Hillary and Obama but I think maybe Obama may squeek out a win! Only because he has the big Culinary union behind him...well if they show up in force that is.

As far as Edwards goes I really don't see him with a shot at all of winning the nod to represent the Dems. He is good but not in the league of Clinton or Obama.

I guess we will have to see what happens. But we do know one thing in this instance what happens in Vegas won't stay in Vegas! LOL

Cynthia, Covington, Ga.

Posted By

Cindy : 4:17 PM ET

Hi Candy,
John Edward has not done as well as I had hoped in this campaign.
I think he is a smart self~made human being.
Well, maybe if all else fails he will be considered by Hillary or Obama as a running mate. If not, then my slot machine will have a winning row of sour grapes~;-(
Thanks!

Betty Ann
Nacogdoches,TX

Posted By

Betty Ann : 4:38 PM ET

I can count on a few things in Vegas, Barack Obama will bring dignity, determination, to the race for President, and he will challenge you and I to encourage and involve Americans in the process of politics so that the positive change we need can and will happen.

Posted By

Mark, St. Louis, MO : 8:50 PM ET

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