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about Asia Buzz | more Asia Buzz Letter from Japan: A Bunch of Old Men and a Baby Legislators play politics with a royal birth By PETER McKILLOP December 17, 1999 Web posted at 1 a.m. Hong Kong time, 12 p.m. EDT The government reached a new desperate low in its panicky efforts to talk up the economy this week. I am not talking about the sugarcoating of the latest grim economic forecasts, but the mean-spirited news leak about the possible pregnancy of Crown Princess Masako.
That made me only more suspicious about the source of the callous and premature leak of her impending pregnancy. While it is impossible to confirm, all fingers point to self-serving politicians. Only hours after the Imperial Household Agency informed Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi of the good news did it appear in the Asahi Shimbun, one of Japan's largest and most respected dailies. Sources close to opposition politicians tell me they suspect that the LDP leaked the story--an allegation the party denies. But who else would have? Masako and the Crown Prince? Not likely. Anyone with a wife who is pregnant knows that the possibility for early-term complications means most couples wait at least eight weeks before telling anyone, except their doctor. It is also clear that the royal couple's minders, the Imperial Household Agency, were surprised by the leak. They reacted with unusual anger at the news and lashed out at the press. Yet the Asahi Shimbun never would have run with the story without confirmation from the most reliable sources, says one retired senior journalist. Such a "scoop" requires approval from the chairman of the newspaper group before being printed--"and he would not have approved it without sources at the highest level," he said. That leaves only one suspect: craven politicians who clearly do not give a damn about the health and well-being of the Crown Princess, and seem ready to exploit even the most personal of news in an effort to please voters. It is, however, a strategy fraught with risk: a royal miscarriage could send already depressed consumer sentiment even lower. The reality, of course, is that no pregnancy will save Japan from its increasingly bleak economic condition. Despite continued happy talk from the government, almost every economic indicator shows Japan is slipping back into recession: This spring's massive government spending effort--its largest ever--has succeeded only in triggering yet another economic "dead-cat" bounce. Japan has run out of easy answers to its economic woes. Savvy politicians know that the only economic hope for Japan is structural economic reform. That, however, will entail real economic pain from a public cocooned for years from change. I asked an LDP politician about this dilemma. Young and internationally minded, he completely understands the stark choices that Japan faces. He also understands why he can't do anything about it. Japan's postwar generation, he says, has never suffered the kind of economic hardships that their parents did. Thus, supporting structural economic reform would cause the kind of pain that would have only one result. "I would lose the next election," he says. So with little or no options left, Japan's ruling coalition is praying for the equivalent of what is known in American football as the Hail Mary pass--a last second strike to the end zone that wins the game. Only LDP politicians are not playing with a football but with the lives of the Crown Princess and the possible heir to the Chrysanthemum Throne. (See TIME's story on the royal pregnancy rumors.) Write to TIME at mail@web.timeasia.com Search for recent Asia Buzz
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