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A Trade Secret
And ... the envelope, please
By ADI IGNATIUS
January 3, 2000 Web posted at 5 a.m. Hong Kong time, 4 p.m. EDT
Before we announce the winner of the annual one-time-only first-ever double-
happiness millennium Asia Buzz news quiz, here's a tip for the New Year.
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It arises from a running conversation I'm having with a journalistic colleague about how best to analyze current events. He maintains that you'll usually be right if you adopt a pessimistic outlook.
My view is the opposite. The negative scenarios -- which journalists like to spin -- never seem to play out. Think of the excessive gloom predating the 1997 Hong Kong handover. Or fears this year of millennium-bug madness. Or expectations of a terrorist attack as the clocks turned over into 2000.
Bad stuff happens. But it never seems to occur when you most anticipate it. The worst eruption in China in recent years, for example, was triggered in 1989 when an old communist, Hu Yaobang, suddenly passed away. Who saw that coming?
Meanwhile, the most closely watched events -- like the Y2K threat or the 10th anniversary of that 1989 movement in China (which ended in a massacre) -- tend to pass without a blip. So here's the free tip: when everyone else is predicting trouble, put your chips on the most benign scenario. (Caveat: be very nervous about Feb. 29. Apparently the Y2K fixit guys forgot to account for the Leap Year when they repaired all that software ... ARRGHH!)
As promised in my previous column (before the holiday timeout last week), it's time to announce the winner of the Asia Buzz news quiz: "the world's best-loved challenge."
The quiz was straightforward: for each of the 10 questions, two facetious options were listed alongside the correct response, which in all cases was "C." Thankfully, many, many readers aced the test.
A few of the miscues are worth noting, however. To the question: "What important landmark was finally handed over to Chinese control this year?", a few respondents selected: The Panama Canal. That gets bonus points from America's far right, but zip from Asia Buzz.
Another respondent guessed that, when Singapore's Information Minister George Yeo said, "If you can't fight it, you should jolly well master it," he was referring to: Reckless Toilet Flushing. I love the image -- but can't award any points.
The question about moviedom -- "Why Are Thais Angry at Leonardo DiCaprio" -- got some interesting responses. The correct answer was meant to be: He Ruined Their Beach. But many insisted that the other options were equally right: He's Wimpy and He's Annoying. I had to concede their plausibility and judge all three responses as correct.
My favorite answer came in response to the question: "When President Lee Teng-hui described Taiwan's relations with China as 'state-to-state,' Beijing responded by ...: One reader guessed: ... Bombing Taipei's Embassy in Belgrade. Not true, though it would tie up a few loose ends.
Selecting randomly among the dozens of correct respondents (including the one from the guy who called the quiz "bonehead" and signed his submission Disgusted and Not Amused), the winner is ... Stanley Welch.
Stanley, if you're reading this, send us your mailing address and we'll post you a free copy of TIME's fab Person of the Century issue. And everyone, be sure to take notes throughout 2000 because next year's Asia Buzz news quiz promises to be even more (A) stupid (B) sophomoric (C) tremendous.
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